Piranha Report (Day 21)
This Isn’t Rocket Science You Know
The Piranha Report is a weekly look at the political intrigue and alliance related trends occurring in the Jaburu and Tambaqui tribes during their stay in the Amazon. Who is wheeling? Who is dealing? And of course, who is reeling?
This week the anticipated merge occurred, and the men had a 6-4 advantage. The question at hand though was if this was still a battle of the sexes at all. Or, would a few of the men who had been outsiders in old Tambaqui take advantage of their chance for revenge?
Swervin’ Prior To Merging
New Jaburu returned to camp post Shawna eviction, and there was, surprisingly, no animosity evident at all.
These folks had been openly expressing plans to vote against each other before the tribal council, yet now they have accepted and moved on. It makes me skeptical of the context of some of the behavior from last week. I personally didn’t feel that Alex looked all that upset to see Shawna leave at tribal council. Perhaps this was more evidence of that reality, and maybe Alex has remained playing the game all along. Perhaps not…
We may never know that answer because word comes of the merge, and Jaburu is plotting. Rob lays out a plan he and Deena have discussed. The Jaburu five will bring in Heidi via Deena, and perhaps Christy. Together they will knock off Dave, Roger, and Butch in that order. The tribe is unified in this approach.
No further determination is given as to what will happen once those three are gone, but everyone seems to agree this is a good place to start. I have to give Deena credit; she has Rob out front rallying the troops while she pulls the strings. Yet, Rob feels that he is the mastermind of the whole thing.
Both Rob and Deena are beginning to get a little too cocky about their position in the game, and that might spell doom later; however for now, they are truly the masters of their domain.
So Jaburu treks off to the merge, plan firmly in place. Meanwhile Tambaqui packs up to go, and there seems to be no reason to coordinate. All of that talk Butch and Roger gave three days ago when Jeanne left is clearly a pile of crap, they have no use for the women, and openly don’t care. After all, soon their super tribe of six guys will reassemble. They will pick off the ladies one at a time. Obviously Matt and Rob only want to make the jury, so they shouldn’t be a problem. As Roger says, it almost seems too easy.
I suppose at this point I should note that my theory, expressed here early on, of a Dave and Alex alliance is not looking too smart at this point. Yes, for those of you wondering, I am getting my medication checked.
Well, At Least We Built A Nice Shelter!
The tribes merge, and it is only a matter of time before Dave is on his way out. However, Roger manages to be so annoying during the shelter construction, that the ladies want him gone instead.
At least that is what they told Rob. In reality, Heidi has returned to thinking about the game, rather than pondering the perfect female image, and along with Jenna, has surmised that there is no way Roger would vote for a woman to win, were he to be on the jury.
Now I don’t know if that is true or not, but I give credit to the ladies for assuming it to be the case having seen him in action. It seems like a reasonable assumption. Therefore, change one to the global domination strategy is submitted for consideration.
If you needed any further evidence that Deena has the game under control at this point, this turn of events should do it. Rob wanted Dave gone for good reason. First, he is a threat to win individual immunity, and secondly he has charisma and could work his way into a larger alliance himself. Both of those events would be detrimental to Rob’s chances at winning.
Rob, Matt, and Alex should never have agreed to boot Roger first. Roger was not a threat to win the game, yet he would likely vote for one of his former tribe mates. That makes him an ideal jury member. This switch works entirely in Deena’s favor, and the Jaburu men are guilty of not thinking beyond the next tribal council.
The immunity challenge and tribal council go as expected, and Roger is booted. Watch for fluff’s always excellent recap to get the full details behind those events.
So we know now what will happen the next two weeks right?
First Dave, then Butch right?
Not so fast my friends. There are a couple of lingering details that may come back to bite the Jaburu five.
First, I feel that leaving Dave in play is dangerous. He can win immunity, and then that would leave Butch on the block. Is Christy going to vote against Butch? What happens when those cracks start to emerge?
Even so, the Jaburu’s are going to run into trouble eventually if they eliminate Dave or Butch next week, but then the other wins immunity. Who goes then? Do the ladies risk going after one of the three guys? Or, do they all turn on Christy herself. It just seems that the more time these folks have together, the more likely they will turn on each other.
Rob and Deena both think that they are the smartest strategists roaming the Amazon. Maybe they will keep their word and try for the final three together, but I frankly doubt it. Rob has already assured us on many occasions that he is going to lie, and Deena is the ultimate pragmatist. These two will ally with whomever is going to advance them in the game, and the time where they will need to work against each other may be rapidly approaching. I wonder who will jump ship first? If I had to bet, I would say Rob.
Meanwhile, Alex is going to pick up on the fact that his name isn’t in the final three plan. He may chose to go his own way when the appropriate time comes, and we still don’t know where Matthew’s true loyalties lie.
Heidi and Jenna are very close, and yet Deena’s plan does not include Heidi making it past the final four. Is Jenna really that closely allied with Deena, or could we see Deena someday soon with the same surprised look on her face that Roger had at tribal council? My gut feel now is that Jenna will sell out anyone there to win… and by the way, that is part of the game, so I don’t fault her for it.
One thing is for certain, Dave and Butch are feeling a bit lonely right now. Butch is probably clutching the “I believe” banner hoping for a reprieve, but I expect Dave to actively attempt to extract himself from his hole. It will be quite a challenge though.
In other words, we have a fantastic mix of alliances and possibilities here, and I hope it lives up to the potential.
The Hot Seat
Obviously Dave and Butch are on dangerous ground. However, MB bombarded us this week with the message that the pecking order of elimination was a done deal, locked in, written in stone, etc… That makes me wonder if we will see an unexpected turn.
On the other hand, Matthew seems pretty safe, as he was this week’s red herring in the previews for the next episode. He has served in that role before back when Daniel was eliminated, so perhaps he really is in trouble.
However, the likely outcome is that the Jaburu’s stick to plan, and Dave or Butch take the walk to Loser Lodge.
I Guess That Didn’t Work
Roger, you should have guessed something was up when Jeff asked you about feeling smug at tribal council.
You violated the same rule that has been the downfall of so many before you. This is not a game of survival in the elements. It is a game of survival amongst your peers, and Rob was right, while you were coordinating construction of your latest high rise Amazon apartment, you should have been checking on the status of your former tribe.
Oh well, I am sure you and Ryan will have a lot of discussions to catch up on.
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