An examination of the remaining 10 players and their position within the game, with reasons for and against their being eliminated in episode 7.

This weeks sees the merge.
THere are more people showing as "vulnerable" as we obviously don't know how alliances are going to shape up.
Next week should show a clearer picture.


Alex



For:

· “Boston Guy” stated Alex was voted off at number 5 or 6, after the merge takes place.
· CBS “clue” has him “distraught” over the Shawna boot. This is almost certain to annoy Rob and could mark him as Rob’s number one target.
· Had an alliance with Rob at Tambaqui, but chose to vote against the majority at the last TC.
· Could be scrambling to get an alliance in place having voted for Matt at the last TC.
· Certain to be viewed as a major threat for individual immunity.

Against:
· Not mentioned by name in the CBS “clue” ,but if the clue is a reference to Alex this could mean he’s safe. Being mentioned in the “clues” has historically been a good indication that you won’t be booted that week.
. Could be willing to join forces with the remaining Tambaqui members making him safer.


Verdict – Vulnerable.


Butch



For:
· Wins in both match ups in the Reward Challenge last week may mark him as more of a physical threat in the individual immunity challenges.

Against:

· Appears to be allied with Christy and Roger and possibly Dave.
· Face time still low.
· Not mentioned in Rob and Matt’s ousting plans when the tribes merged. He appears to be well liked by the men who went to Jaburu.
· Rumoured to have returned from the Amazon 31 pounds lighter by a poster who “spoiled” him as a contestant before CBS announced the cast.
· “Chill one” places an older guy in the final three. Butch could fit this profile.

Verdict – Safe.

Christy



For:


· High face time.
· Very willing to speak her mind with regard to the treatment she feels she receives from some of the other players. This appears to have caused bad feeling with Jenna in particular and could mark her as a boot prospect.


Against:

· Allied with Roger and Butch and possibly Dave.
· Ryan claimed not to know Christy was deaf until recently in his chat.
· “Chill One” claimed there was a deaf contestant before the cast was officially announced and said she would make the final four.
· Internet reports of significant weight loss.

Verdict – Safe.


Dave



For:

· Butch and Roger closely allied to Christy instead of Dave’s plan to have them keep Heidi as their “number four”, could indicate they aren’t as closely allied with Dave as it previously appeared.
· Heidi is almost certain to join forces with Jenna and Deena again. Butch and Roger could see this move as vindication of their choice of Christy over Heidi and leave Dave scrambling to try and find an alliance.
· Could be a target of Jenna’s alliance for choosing Heidi to join his team.
· Rob doesn’t appear to like Dave much and targeted him and Roger in his strategic talk with Matt last week.
· Physical and mental strength will be seen as a threat for individual immunity.
· Alleged co-worker of Dave’s reports no significant weight loss.

Against:

· Butch and Roger might stay aligned with him out of loyalty, he did choose them to remain on his tribe.
· Alex, annoyed at the ousting of Shawna, might decide to join an alliance of the Tambaqui tribe, minus Heidi.


Verdict – Vulnerable.

Deena



For:

· Not is as strong as position as she was post switch.
· Physically and mentally strong, she could be seen as an individual immunity threat.
· Closely allied with Rob, but can anyone really trust him after all the wheeling and dealing he’s done?
· Could be target simply because she isn’t one of the “cute” girls.
· As with Heidi, Dave is aware of her alliance and if he assumes the men who went to Jaburu will now vote with the Tambaqui men her alliance is their obvious target.
· Shown to be “cocky” when in a power position during confessionals. If she feels she’s well placed in her new alliance and that attitude is manifested in her interaction with other tribe member she could mark herself as a target.


Against:

· Unconfirmed Internet report from someone claiming to know Deena states she lost 30 pounds and returned to the US tanned.
· Has joined forces with Rob and Matthew, strengthening her alliance.
· Will almost certainly regain Heidi’s support and might even be able to wrestle Christy back from Butch and Roger giving her a power position in the largest alliance.

Verdict – On dodgy ground – looking safer, but needs to establish how trustworthy Rob is and to hold on to Matthew’s support.




Heidi



For:

· High face time.
· Is almost certain to join forces with Jenna and Deena again which could mark her as target of the Roger/Butch/Christy alliance That alliance might also have the support of Dave and a disgruntled Alex.
· Not willing to do her fair share of the work at camp.
· Could be seen as a threat to win individual immunities.
· Her use of her “cuteness” might be resented by other players.
· Dave is aware of her alliance with Jenna and Deena. He picked his team with a view to realigning after the merge and if her feels confident the men will do so, members of the Heidi/Deena/Jenna alliance will be obvious targets.
· Her strip during a challenge this week might not be well received by certain tribemates who could mark her as a target out of disapproval.


Against:

· “After” picture shows dramatic weight loss with further reports of hair loss, plus widespread Internet reports claim she makes it past the merge.
· Will rejoin the alliance with Deena and Jenna. They now appear to have both Rob and Matthew on board giving them at least equal footing and might even secure the votes of Dave and Alex depending who they decide to target.
· “Milkshaky” who spoiled Heidi as a contestant at her site before the cast was officially announced has her in the final 5 or 6.


Verdict – Safe.

Jenna



For:

· Laziness around camp won’t go unnoticed by Roger in particular.
· Increasing amounts of face time.
· Strips naked this week, a move that might be met with scorn from many members of the tribe.
· Dave knows all about her alliances and would probably be loathe to trust her in an alliance knowing how free she is about sharing information.


Against:

· Sucks poster Chill One, who vacationed at the same hotel as Survivor staff just after filming puts Jenna in the final 2.
· Heidi is almost certain to rejoin her alliance with Deena. They now also have Rob and apparently Matthew on board and she could work the “cute” angle to try and secure further alliance commitments from the likes of Dave and Alex.

Verdict: – Safe.


Matthew



For:

· Rob formed an alliance with him, but doesn’t like him. Could look to boot Matt from the alliance if he can find someone willing to replace him.
· Allied with both Ryan and Dan, the only two men booted so far. If he is ousted from Rob’s alliance with the females,he might not be accepted into the Roger/Butch et al alliance as they may feel Rob and Alex will automatically reallign to form an all-male bloc.
· Could be seen as an individual immunity threat.


Against:

· The best food provider.
· Rob appears to need his vote for now.
· A posting from a friend of his at the Sucks board confirmed he returned from time away, tanned and with significant weight loss.


Verdict – Vulnerable.


Rob



For:

· Has been seen by Alex as “playing both sides” this may mark him as untrustworthy.
· Annoyed at Shawna’s ousting, Alex could look to realign with the other guys and tell them about Rob’s scheming.
· His interest in “hooking up” could take his mind out of the game.


Against:

· “After” pictures show considerable weight loss.
· Ryan’s official chat comments indicate they did not meet up at loser lodge.
· Appears to be strongly allied with Deena and Jenna, with Heidi certain to rejoin their group.
· Appears to have excellent Survivor game skills. Seems to be thinking on his feet and will look to make alliances and agreements to ensure his safety whenever possible.


Verdict – Safe

Roger



For:

· Being the oldest member of the tribe makes you easy pickings come TC time.
· Real player preview shows Deena becoming increasingly annoyed with one person in the newly merged tribe. The preview implies that person is Roger, which marks him as a possible boot choice for her alliance.
· Rob and Matt discussed targeting Roger in their strategy talk last week.
· Not well liked by the guys who went to Jaburu and it seems unlikely he will be able to add any of them to his alliance with Butch and Christy.


Against:

· In an interview in the San Mateo County Times, Shawna said she only met Roger at the challenges
· Ryan and Dan’s chats indicate they didn’t bury the hatchet at loser lodge, which supports Shawna’s comment about only seeing him at the challenges.
· “Chill One” places an older guy in the final three, Roger could fit that profile.

Verdict – vulnerable

Please feel free to add your thoughts and interpretations and any spoiler information you've heard.