FORT Smack-A-Mole Column - Week 1

[LG.]

Hi Mole fans, and welcome to the FORT’s weekly Mole Analysis column where we discuss our predictions and try to figure out whose got a good strategy for the game. We will have separate recap articles that iguanachocolate is writing, so check it out. This article is all about the predictions, calling out contestants on their fishy behavior, and making predictions.

Speaking of predictions, as you saw in my pre-show column last week located here, FORT Smack-A-Mole Column - Season Preview I had Marcie picked as dead last for being the Mole, and just like that, WHAM, she’s out of there. I’m tooting my own horn this week because it is probably the only time all season that I will be dead right on anything. Sure, I got a little nervous when the contestants picked her as their first impression Mole, but then I realized this isn’t the Bachelor. A good Mole wouldn’t be the first person everyone would suspect.

Don’t Go Chasing Waterfalls.
Our first challenge presented sabotage opportunities for all of the contestants on their own individual grab for the bag, plus for Marcie in choosing whose bags will count for the real cash versus funny money. I had an entire paragraph written about why Marcie’s choices were not suspicious, but obviously it doesn’t seem as insightful now that the end of the episode has aired and Marcie was executed.

Marcie’s tell-tale signs that she wasn’t the Mole:
1.) she had picked mostly men to try for the money bags (as she had likely picked both Alex and Paul, and they were both acting very suspicious with their misses). She clearly underestimated Kristin as an athlete.
2.) she seemed to consistently not favor a group of four contestants: Nicole, Liz, Craig, and Bobby. She had picked those four to sleep outside, and we know that she had picked three of them (Nicole, Liz, and Bobby) to try to empty money bags. She likely also had Craig on her list of five players trying for fake cash (along with Kristin, whom she had clearly underestimated). Marcie was clearly making more of an effort to fit in with the other group of contestants, not this group.

With these two groups of selections, Marcie ended up costing the pot $40,000 (take that, real Mole, as Marcie has out-sabotaged you this week) but with her choices she seemed to be trying to maximize the pot. She was also grouping people in a manner that consistently alienated the same group of people. She either really couldn’t stand Nicole, Liz, Craig and Bobby (which seems really unfair to Liz and Craig, anyway) or was hoping to get in tighter with some of the remaining players. That didn’t work, and she seemed ready to be leaving.

In the Waterfall challenge, Alex and Victoria came off looking the most like the Mole based on the waterfall bag-grab challenge. If Craig is the Mole, he was using a terrible strategy because he’ll end up dead if he tries to hang himself to avoid winning money for the pot. Alex’ greatest fear is either this exact challenge: falling from a great height and then drowning (that was rather specific, do the producers hate him?) – or else ending up somewhere with no hair gel. He ended up a mile away from the money bag. Not very impressive. Victoria the cheerleader should have been able to get on her feet to make a grab for the bag. That was just lame, and didn’t even look like she tried to reach it. Nicole reached up and grabbed the bag from a seated position while facing backwards. Victoria didn’t give it the rah rah sister effort and let it sail right over her head. Paul was rather pathetic in this challenge as well, but didn’t make quite as much of a spectacle of it.

Dr. Nicole’s Rules of Circumvention: No Sleeping Outside On A Tuesday! Wednesdays are fine.

Dr. Nicole does not sleep outside! Nobody tells Dr. Nicole to sleep outside. She will yell and whine and keep everyone else up the whole night, but she will not sleep outside. She will Circumvent the Rules and use big words. She will look like a hot mess in the morning after not sleeping. But she will not sleep outside. Well, she won’t do that on the FIRST night of the competition. She will, however, sleep outside with a campfire and a sleeping bag on the SECOND night of the competition, and apparently not have a problem with it.

That is very odd behavior. But it didn’t cost the pot a thing, and actually netted Nicole an exemption from the Quiz. So, good work Nicole, but I’m not buying that you’re the Mole. Nicole loves attention, but I don’t think she’s paying enough attention to other players, so it will be tough for her to do well when she actually has to take a Quiz.

Robinson Caruso, Not A Single Luxury (But Maybe a Pair of Levi’s 501s).

What’s wrong with being smart and gorgeous at the same time? Nothing - but what does that have to do with Nicole? I kid. I think that Nicole is quite intelligent and was really quite logical when it came to assigning tasks for the beach challenge. The history teacher, scientist, and oldest contestant are a good panel for the appraisers. The appraisers were the most able to bring in the prize money as they got to choose the five items. The appraisers (Mark, Liz and Kristin) actually did a terrific job, because of they had all three of the correct items that the scavengers had located, and got all three of them on the table not once but twice. The two other correct items (the tea kettle and the tin of tobacco), had never been picked up by the scavengers.

If the Mole was not Nicole and was in fact working on throwing this challenge, he or she was likely one of the lazy scavengers. The problem was that there were five of them. Bobby was clearly dragging, but Clay and the others seemed to be wandering aimlessly and carrying around electrical appliances just to spite the appraisers. I’d love to have more video to see where the tobacco tin could be located, but that might give us too much information at this point.

Nicole also needed to pick the most athletic contestants for the timekeepers, and she picked well. That was a terrible role, running up and down those steps with buckets of sand, and Paulie and Ali performed admirably. They both worked way too hard to be actively trying to sabotage, as Paulie didn’t take his dirt nap (no, not the kind from the Sopranos, literally a nap in the dirt) until the appraisers had their final 5 items on the judging table.

The Coalition of the Willing – or of the Witless.
Paulie thinks he knows that Marcie is not the Mole (and he was right). His big strategy Week 1 strategy was trying to lead his coalition buddy Alex into thinking that Marcie is the Mole. Wouldn’t Paulie be surprised if he were to find out that really it is his buddy Alex that is playing for the other team (no, I don’t mean it that way, Bobby). Alex didn’t do well at either challenge so far, and I think there is a reason for that.

For some reason we have 2 extra minutes and we get to watch Mark have a breakdown. Inspired by Marcie’s incessant tales of the joys of being a stay at home mom, Mark breaks into tears describing how his wife has been a working mom for years and he wants her to be home with the kids. Ummm, ok. We don’t know if Mark’s wife shares that view, or thinks she would lose her mind and turn into Marcie if she had to give up her career.

Let’s watch the players hearing the Quiz results. Everyone is ticked off that Nicole is exempt. She earned something for missing out on the nice dinner and spending a night outside. We all know her thoughts on outdoor accommodations, but I’m speculating that she realized staying there wasn’t all bad. She got to hang out with an antique record player, and a collection of other antiques, so that is cool. Unless she got cold and tossed them onto the fire.

Alex: the 80s called, and they want their pink tie back. Only a Mole would wear that tie. Alex, out resident “boomerang kid” who is 31 and living in his parents’ basement is my Week 1 episode pick for the Mole. Let’s count them down again, shall we? Here are my picks, from least likely to most likley the Mole as of Week 1:


12. Marcie – OUT
11. Paul – formed an alliance with Marcie and Alex, who is the Mole (at least I think so this week). Clueless and loud – a losing combination.
10. Nicole – she’s all bark and no bite. Unless clearly mental is her Mole cover story. I think the producers steered that exemption towards her to keep her around at least for another week because she brings the drama. Little does she realize that Donald Trump is not here awarding prizes for the Omarosa act-alike contest.
9. Ali – the producers have given Ali a very Moley camera shot edit, which I think is complete misdirection. Or it is secret hints that she’s really the Mole. Watch the show again and show how they cut to her looking very suspicious as soon as they announce Marcie as the first impression Mole, and other times throughout the show. Definitely a very specific edit: Pesky dual possibilities.
8. Mark – he could have a great cover story if he is the Mole, trying so hard to run up the pot so he can change his family’s lot with the pot, no-one would suspect he’s really kicking the tobacco tin under a tarp so it doesn’t get noticed by the scavengers. It would be great, but we’ve yet to see any real hints of this yet.
7. Craig – I’d love for Craig to be the Mole, as he has the perfect cover. But the guy nearly hung himself trying to grab that bag – ouch. We need our Mole to survive the season.
6. Victoria – seemed rather pathetic in the waterfall challenge, but there was not much attention on her in the first episode. Her story arc isn’t starting yet (if she has one).
5. Kristen – landed the bag of fake cash and didn’t do much else. She’s right in the middle of the road, but I think we’ll see more of Kristen’s competitive side if she gets underestimated again like she was by Marcie.
4. Bobby – either he’s a hardcore smoker who can’t cross a street without stopping for a breather or he’s Moley McMoleyPants, or trying to look like one anyway. Let this be a lesson to you kids: don’t start smoking or you may cost your eventual prize pot a lot of money. I don’t think that Bobby will win by figuring this out, though, Bobby is either the Mole or he’ll be gone before the finale. Bobby was near the bottom of my pre-show picks, but he shot up considerably when they were scoring the Quizzes this week because he just seemed to be trying too hard to look relieved when his passing score was announced. He didn’t look genuinely relieved, he looked like he was acting. But why? As a super-fan, it’s probably all part of his strategy.
3. Clay – my pre-show favorite was pretty quiet. He landed the money bag, but seemed somewhat amiss as a scavenger.
2. Liz – rocked both challenges, but I think a crafty Mole would set herself up as someone who will try really hard. I love Liz and hope she sticks around to win if she isn’t the Mole.
1. Alex – shifty at every avenue, I just have such a hard time trusting this dude who ended up a mile away from the bag of cash with his raft and couldn’t find a tea kettle on the beach. That, and he’s clearly getting help from the production staff to keep his hair that tall – he’s got outside assistance.

Tell me how much you admire my awesome prognosticating – and join in with your own.

[Google]

 

[SweetElvira]

Originally Posted by LG.

12. Marcie – OUT
11. Paul – formed an alliance with Marcie and Alex, who is the Mole (at least I think so this week). Clueless and loud – a losing combination.
10. Nicole – she’s all bark and no bite. Unless clearly mental is her Mole cover story. I think the producers steered that exemption towards her to keep her around at least for another week because she brings the drama. Little does she realize that Donald Trump is not here awarding prizes for the Omarosa act-alike contest.
9. Ali – the producers have given Ali a very Moley camera shot edit, which I think is complete misdirection. Or it is secret hints that she’s really the Mole. Watch the show again and show how they cut to her looking very suspicious as soon as they announce Marcie as the first impression Mole, and other times throughout the show. Definitely a very specific edit: Pesky dual possibilities.
8. Mark – he could have a great cover story if he is the Mole, trying so hard to run up the pot so he can change his family’s lot with the pot, no-one would suspect he’s really kicking the tobacco tin under a tarp so it doesn’t get noticed by the scavengers. It would be great, but we’ve yet to see any real hints of this yet.
7. Craig – I’d love for Craig to be the Mole, as he has the perfect cover. But the guy nearly hung himself trying to grab that bag – ouch. We need our Mole to survive the season.
6. Victoria – seemed rather pathetic in the waterfall challenge, but there was not much attention on her in the first episode. Her story arc isn’t starting yet (if she has one).
5. Kristen – landed the bag of fake cash and didn’t do much else. She’s right in the middle of the road, but I think we’ll see more of Kristen’s competitive side if she gets underestimated again like she was by Marcie.
4. Bobby – either he’s a hardcore smoker who can’t cross a street without stopping for a breather or he’s Moley McMoleyPants, or trying to look like one anyway. Let this be a lesson to you kids: don’t start smoking or you may cost your eventual prize pot a lot of money. I don’t think that Bobby will win by figuring this out, though, Bobby is either the Mole or he’ll be gone before the finale. Bobby was near the bottom of my pre-show picks, but he shot up considerably when they were scoring the Quizzes this week because he just seemed to be trying too hard to look relieved when his passing score was announced. He didn’t look genuinely relieved, he looked like he was acting. But why? As a super-fan, it’s probably all part of his strategy.
3. Clay – my pre-show favorite was pretty quiet. He landed the money bag, but seemed somewhat amiss as a scavenger.
2. Liz – rocked both challenges, but I think a crafty Mole would set herself up as someone who will try really hard. I love Liz and hope she sticks around to win if she isn’t the Mole.
1. Alex – shifty at every avenue, I just have such a hard time trusting this dude who ended up a mile away from the bag of cash with his raft and couldn’t find a tea kettle on the beach. That, and he’s clearly getting help from the production staff to keep his hair that tall – he’s got outside assistance.

Tell me how much you admire my awesome prognosticating – and join in with your own.

I totally admire your awesome prognosticating!!! Not to mention your most excellent and timely column.

Above, I'd do just a bit of moving around. Mostly, we disagree about Bobby and Nicole. I do clusters, and mine would be: bottom -- Marcie (out), Ali, Craig; second from bottom -- Paul, Bobby, Mark; third -- Nicole, Victoria, Kristen; top -- Alex, Clay, Liz. If I follow my usual pattern, I've got two of these badly wrong. And with Alex seeming so Moleish so soon, I figure it can't be him. But this show has so many layers, that could be the reason he's it. Or not. Or maybe.

[angelmum3]

WOW! I love your recap!! Thank you for taking the time to put it all together!!

I totally agree about Craig not being the Mole, but your analysis had me LOL - and I dont think Mark is the mole, not only was his crying in his confessional too emotional, when they had his name on the screen, and did a close up, he would not be a very good liar - that man was twitching nerves... I really thought he was gonna cry right then and there!

Hope you are able to keep this up all season!! I look forward to it!

[bbnbama]

If Craig is the Mole, he was using a terrible strategy because he’ll end up dead if he tries to hang himself to avoid winning money for the pot.

Craig is my favorite so far...I would love it if he was the Mole...

Great job and analysis of the first episode LG!

[Mariner]

Excellent job LG.! I am very impressed you got the first out right.

[AsIs]

Awesome prognosticating LG.

I am going to stick with Paul and add Nicole to my moley picks. I'm going for they are trying to mess with us and pick someone more obvious this year. LOL

I'm adding Nicole because if they needed the Mole to be stranded on the beach, she maneuvered her way there without a doubt. While it looks too obvious to us, I imagine it was just annoying to the contestants.

Great job with Marcie being the boot.

All hail LG!

[dagwood]

Excellent analysis, LG.

[CarribeanCastof]

Did anyone notice any clues from the show itself last night? For instance, was there any significance to the fact that the host held up journal no. 11 ?
And all night it was 11 vs. 1 (more or less)?



I remember in an earlier season, the mole had a "7" tattoo and at dinner, there were seven candles on the table.

[Jezebella]

I loved your recap and analysis too! And yes, the first person who came to mind when I saw Nicole was...oh no, another Omarosa!!

[Jewelsy]

Fantastic job, LG!