Tony and Melissa are a compelling couple. Tony seems convinced that he let her down last time and is pushing to do better. She seems more mature this time. Tony has never smiled so much as he does with Melissa, which is good since she has that super bright smile to match. I would be happy to see them win but my guess is that they will finish around 4th.
For me the question is whether she can beat Gilles and Shaun this time. Gilles is less impressive this season, I think because he had better chemistry with Cheryl, so I think Melissa can beat him. Shaun is more impressive with Derek than she was with Mark so I don't think Melissa can beat Shaun.