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Thread: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

  1. #81
    FORT Regular jcsorrels's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Blues Songstres;3446562;
    All the raw numbers on DI represent are the votes of those who use DI to vote. It isn't representative of the voting population as a whole.
    That is the real question. Which is why I said, "This is a very small sample, but most polls are. The important question is whether or not it is representative of the rest of the phone voters out there that don't use the software."

    I would say that people who use DI are probably more "die hard" type fans than the average, but other than that, it's just random people. I'm not sure you can say without a dout that it is not representative of the voting popluation. I'd say it at least has some predictive value.

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    FORT Fogey Bloomers's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by jcsorrels;3446318;
    I don't begin to understand how DialIdol works for DWTS, but just looking at the raw numbers from the top 4 makes me think that both Mel & Shawn are getting a lot of votes.

    Apparently 2387 calls were made, but only 1837 votes were actually cast as the rest were busy signals.

    This is a very small sample, but most polls are. The important question is whether or not it is representative of the rest of the phone voters out there that don't use the software. Who knows, but let's assume for this discussion that it is.

    As for the other types of votes (text and online) back when WOZ complained that ABC was trying to fix the results, it was explained to him/us that one of the safety factors against that was that they look for anomalies such as disproportionate totals when comparing phone,text and online votes. ABC's assumption is that these totals should be similar percentage wise. In other words, if WOZ got few phone votes but a huge online vote, something inappropriate might be going on.

    So, assuming that DI is representative of phone votes and assuming that text and online votes are similar percentage wise, then we have the following:

    % of votes attempted (includes busy attempts):

    Mel = 34%
    Shawn = 26%
    Gilles = 21%
    Ty = 17%

    % of votes that got through:

    Mel = 31%
    Shawn = 30%
    Gilles = 21%
    Ty = 16%

    Of the votes that actually got in, Mel only got 3 more than Shawn. But Mel apparently lost 240 votes to busy signals while Shawn only lost 70. We have to keep in mind here that ALL text and online votes go through. This would bode well % wise for Mel.

    Either way, if....and this is a big if...the above assumptions are correct, then neither should be worried tonight as they have virtually the same judge's scores. Gilles perfect 60 makes up for millions of votes. Ty should be gone.


    Just out of curiosity, can you look back and do the math on the week Chuck left and see how that worked out? Thanks!

  3. #83
    FORT Fogey anders332's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Those numbers now make sense when last nights couples weren't necessarily the B2 - looks like it was Gilles and Ty. We could have a Shawn/Mel F2 with it going either way, depending on the judges scores.
    “No matter how dark the moment, love and hope are always possible.” George Chakiris

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    FORT Fogey Bloomers's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by anders332;3448001;
    Those numbers now make sense when last nights couples weren't necessarily the B2 - looks like it was Gilles and Ty. We could have a Shawn/Mel F2 with it going either way, depending on the judges scores.
    Somewhere along the way, don't the judges get to score, and their scores alone count? If so, they are going to make ABSOLUTELY sure that Gilles is in the F2.
    I suspect if the judges can control this thing, they have already decided that Gilles is the winner.

    I am basing this on the way that they are talking - the kinds of things that they are saying which are meant to influence and sway voters. Sure enough, a look at the fan polls immediatedly after the judges scoring and their comments, and Gilles is slightly ahead of Shawn which has not happened.

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    FORT Fogey ducky2's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3448274;
    Somewhere along the way, don't the judges get to score, and their scores alone count? If so, they are going to make ABSOLUTELY sure that Gilles is in the F2.
    I suspect if the judges can control this thing, they have already decided that Gilles is the winner.

    I am basing this on the way that they are talking - the kinds of things that they are saying which are meant to influence and sway voters. Sure enough, a look at the fan polls immediatedly after the judges scoring and their comments, and Gilles is slightly ahead of Shawn which has not happened.
    That's what I thought when CA said in the SECOND episode that Gilles had clearly become the fan favorite. Huh? I wonder why they have decided that Gilles should be the winner. His fans would say he is the best dancer which I completely disagree with. I wonder how much of it is the behind the scenes politics with the pros and judges involved that determines who they push.

  6. #86
    FORT Fogey Bloomers's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by ducky2;3448296;
    That's what I thought when CA said in the SECOND episode that Gilles had clearly become the fan favorite. Huh? I wonder why they have decided that Gilles should be the winner. His fans would say he is the best dancer which I completely disagree with. I wonder how much of it is the behind the scenes politics with the pros and judges involved that determines who they push.

    Last season I did not post or lurk on any of the DWTS boards. I looked at DI and watched the show each week. But I have sleuthed too long not to recognize a few things. After watching season 6, I started studying DI for patterns, and I listened carefully to the judges' comments. It all fell in line!

    Cody was going out at 4th, and they made all the comments to help sway the audience - "how young" he was; how "immature" he was; how "unfocused" he was, etc.

    Lance, who had completely blown the top out the week before in DI , was suddenly given nitpicky, disparaging comments, and it became obvious to me that he was going to be F3. They did not want Lance in the F2.

    Now...get this. I am going to be objective here. I felt that technically Brooke was the much, much, better dancer. Warren was a fun guy who was light on his feet, but what I remember primarily about him was that he traipsed lightly all around the room.
    Here's the kicker! Warren had the popular vote by a mile and a half on DI most of the time and certainly the last time, right up to the finale - way over the top over Brooke.

    I don't know what the judges' scores were, but I don't know how Brooke actually beat Warren's popularity even though I think she should have won based on who was the better dancer.

    There are several of us who like to sleuthe who think it is already mapped out with Gilles as the winner- set up by the judges' comments.

    Gilles has announced that he has signed on with ABC's Brothers and Sisters, so Gilles as a winner gives publicity to an ABC show more than Melissa can do and which Shawn can't do at all.

    If the producers can negate Shawn's fan base ( however) and can manipulate and sway voters by comments and overinflated or underinflated scores, Gilles wins and so does ABC who prospers from all of his after the series appearances where they mention his new ABC series.
    Last edited by Bloomers; 05-13-2009 at 01:54 PM.

  7. #87
    FORT Fogey ducky2's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3448348;
    Last season I did not post or lurk on any of the DWTS boards. I looked at DI and watched the show each week. But I have sleuthed too long not to recognize a few things. After watching season 6, I started studying DI for patterns, and I listened carefully to the judges' comments. It all fell in line!

    Cody was going out at 4th, and they made all the comments to help sway the audience - "how young" he was; how "immature" he was; how "unfocused" he was, etc.

    Lance, who had completely blown the top out the week before in DI , was suddenly given nitpicky, disparaging comments, and it became obvious to me that he was going to be F3. They did not want Lance in the F2.

    Now...get this. I am going to be objective here. I felt that technically Brooke was the much, much, better dancer. Warren was a fun guy who was light on his feet, but what I remember primarily about him was that he traipsed lightly all around the room.
    Here's the kicker! Warren had the popular vote by a mile and a half on DI most of the time and certainly the last time, right up to the finale - way over the top over Brooke.

    I don't know what the judges' scores were, but I don't know how Brooke actually beat Warren's popularity even know I think she should have won based on who was the better dancer.

    There are several of us who like to sleuthe who think it is already mapped out with Gilles as the winner- set up by the judges' comments.

    Gilles has announced that he has signed on with ABC's Brothers and Sisters, so Gilles as a winner gives publicity to an ABC show more than Melissa can do and which Shawn can't do at all.

    If the producers can negate Shawn's fan base ( however) and can manipulate and sway voters by comments and overinflated or underinflated scores, Gilles win and so does ABC.

    Makes perfect sense, Bloomers. The comments, the promos, the scoring, all seem to lead up to a Gilles win. His face was in most of the promos, he is the consistent leader in scoring, and he was deemed the fan favorite in the second episode. The judges comments and enthusiasm I would imagine influence the votes quite a bit. Also they have selected the Paso Doble as the group dance which would give the greatest advantage to Gilles and the greatest disadvantage to Melissa.

    Your comment about the nitpicking the 3rd place contestant has me thinking they want Melissa out as well. They got their publicity for the Bach/Bachette series and now they need Gilles for B and S.

    It's all about the ratings!

    eta - Now I'm beginning to wonder if Gilles was already slated for the role in B and S before he was selected to be on DWTS. Oh brother. Both he and Melissa were basically publicity props for ABC?
    Last edited by ducky2; 05-13-2009 at 02:00 PM.

  8. #88
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3448348;
    Last season I did not post or lurk on any of the DWTS boards. I looked at DI and watched the show each week. But I have sleuthed too long not to recognize a few things. After watching season 6, I started studying DI for patterns, and I listened carefully to the judges' comments. It all fell in line!

    Cody was going out at 4th, and they made all the comments to help sway the audience - "how young" he was; how "immature" he was; how "unfocused" he was, etc.

    Lance, who had completely blown the top out the week before in DI , was suddenly given nitpicky, disparaging comments, and it became obvious to me that he was going to be F3. They did not want Lance in the F2.

    Now...get this. I am going to be objective here. I felt that technically Brooke was the much, much, better dancer. Warren was a fun guy who was light on his feet, but what I remember primarily about him was that he traipsed lightly all around the room.
    Here's the kicker! Warren had the popular vote by a mile and a half on DI most of the time and certainly the last time, right up to the finale - way over the top over Brooke.

    I don't know what the judges' scores were, but I don't know how Brooke actually beat Warren's popularity even though I think she should have won based on who was the better dancer.

    There are several of us who like to sleuthe who think it is already mapped out with Gilles as the winner- set up by the judges' comments.

    Gilles has announced that he has signed on with ABC's Brothers and Sisters, so Gilles as a winner gives publicity to an ABC show more than Melissa can do and which Shawn can't do at all.

    If the producers can negate Shawn's fan base ( however) and can manipulate and sway voters by comments and overinflated or underinflated scores, Gilles wins and so does ABC who prospers from all of his after the series appearances where they mention his new ABC series.
    Sure puts an interesting twist on things with Gilles signing on for another ABC show. ABC is pretty smart and DWTS could be the best thing to ever happen to Gilles career.

  9. #89
    FORT Fogey Bloomers's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Reggie24;3448381;
    Sure puts an interesting twist on things with Gilles signing on for another ABC show. ABC is pretty smart and DWTS could be the best thing to ever happen to Gilles career.
    They all go on DWTS for a reason. Most of them go on to further their career. In an interview, Gilles as well as stated this, but since we already knew and acknowledged that we knew and understood this motive in the contestants, it wasn't a big enough deal to bring the interview over.

  10. #90
    FORT Fogey ducky2's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3448393;
    They all go on DWTS for a reason. Most of them go on to further their career. In an interview, Gilles as well as stated this, but since we already knew and acknowledged that we knew and understood this motive in the contestants, it wasn't a big enough deal to bring the interview over.

    Do you think that Gilles was already chosen for the role in B and S and they put him on DWTS for promotional purposes? The same tactic they used with Melissa?

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