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Thread: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by sdl;3422429;
    It's interesting that while Melissa and Gilles fans have been shooting arrows at one another, Shawn has been quietly running away with the fan polls. Her lead is growing.
    The judges are keeping the two favorites from this board in contention.
    Hard to believe that either Melissa or Gilles wouldn't make the F2, but that's what the numbers are saying.
    I think that the producers and judges would like to see an F2 between Gilles and Melissa as they are more overall and evenly matched as attractive adults who have been involved in activities that have been controversial.
    Yes, Shawn has a huge fan base, but the 17 year old sweet Shawn who has to take Wednesdays off because of Child Labor Laws up against the ultra sexy 33 year old Gilles, actor of adult movies, is disharmonious.

    Shawn does have a huge fan base. Gilles is both a good dancer and has a strong fan base. While Melissa is a strong dancer but has a smaller fan base, what is not spoken aloud but needs to be taken into consideration is that the judges can and do control the situation with their scores at times. Because we don't see the actual fan vote called and texted in, we don't know how a few 8s, 9s, and 10s carefully given here and there on the judges' part of the score can change the total outcome and placement. Who ends up 3rd and 4th could very well be determined by some carefully orchestrated judges' comments and scores.

    I did not visit the message boards last season. I only watched the shows and checked DI. However, it looked rather obvious to me around F5 or F6 that the judges ( maybe producers?) did not want Lance or Cody in the F2. Although they were getting good comments (up to a point), their scores and their comments began to wax and wane at the point when it was time for Brooke and Warren to move into the undisputed F2 spots.

    If...If the producers and judges are indeed looking for a showdown between Gilles and Melissa, then we will begin to see some subtle manipulation begin.
    As well as actually affecting totally outcome, the judges' scores and comments also affect a certain segment of the voting population who are easily influenced by others' opinions - that being the judges' opinions and comments. We see that happening all the time with AI, so that is not a shot in the dark comment.

    It will be interesting to see what happens, but I wouldn't bet the farm that the producers allow the viewers to strictly select exactly who they want to be in the F2. The producers have already said they reserve the right to tweak ( paraphrased but correct idea) the show for entertainment purposes.
    Last edited by MFWalkoff; 04-23-2009 at 03:33 PM.

  2. #52
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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by karalott;3422455;
    So the numbers are saying they will or won't make it (or will but won't win?) I wouldn't count Shawn out of making the final 3, just based on fanbase, but honestly I hope she doesn't win. I've already spoke my peace on another Mark victory, but overall, I think Shawn is boring, has been overscored, overrated, and the only dance of hers that has kept my attention was her cha cha. Just curious sdl, but how accurate have the polls been so far in at least predicting who's going home?
    **SPOILERS**
    I'm trying not to run afoul of the rules here but I've been told that this is a spoilers thread so it's ok. Here goes:
    I follow every fan poll I can find on the internet and there are a bunch. A few are good, meaning that they are regularly updated, have large sample sizes, and draw from a wide array of demographic groups. I then watch every week to see how accurate the polls are in predicting the order of elimination thus far.
    Some polls are biased for obvious reasons, e.g the one on another Bachelor message board, or the Des Moines Register (Shawn's hometown newspaper). Some still include preseason votes, before loyalties were solidified. One respected website, that measures the busy signal, has had a terrible record for accuracy this season and may be on it's way out as fewer people are phoning in their votes and the network has figured out how to clear logjams in certain key regions.
    When you read enough of these polls, definite trends are seen.
    Shawn was a prohibitive preseason favorite. She then slipped a bit as others gained strength. Most recently, like the last two weeks, she has come back like gangbusters. This is what prompted my note - I was surprised that she seemed to be pulling away, definitely not the sense one would have from reading the comments here. Shawn leads virtually every fan poll I've seen, some by huge margins.
    Gilles started with nothing and built a substantial fan base, but we wondered if they would stick around because he wasn't a big star. Interesting that in the week when he arguably did his worst dance, his numbers got even better. That indicates loyal fan support. He is a few points behind Shawn and way ahead (about 2 to 1) of the next contestant in the best poll I follow.
    Melissa and Ty are in the next group, surprisingly close together.
    Lil Kim and Chuck are clearly at the bottom in terms of fan support. Kim's improvement in dancing has only slightly been reflected in her poll numbers, but not enough to make a difference.
    If the fans controlled the process, the F2 at this point would certainly be Shawn and Gilles, and Chuck would go home this week.
    The judges' vote accounts for 50% of the total, however, and a point or two there can wipe out millions of fan votes. That's why this show doesn't often have "shock" eliminations like AI for example. Look at this season, and how predictable the order of elimination has been. The judges set the pace, with the fans breaking "ties."
    Unless Chuck blows it this week, Ty will be going home.
    I also have a sneaking suspicion we'll see Melissa and Gilles in the finals.
    Neither of these reflect true fan preference, but it's the way the show works.

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3422572;

    Shawn does have a huge fan base. Gilles is both a good dancer and has a strong fan base. While Melissa is a strong dancer but has a smaller fan base, what is not spoken aloud but needs to be taken into consideration is that the judges can and do control the situation with their scores at times. Because we don't see the actual fan vote called and texted in, we don't know how a few 8s, 9s, and 10s carefully given here and there on the judges' part of the score can change the total outcome and placement. Who ends up 3rd and 4th could very well be determined by some carefully orchestrated judges' comments and scores.

    I did not visit the message boards last season. I only watched the shows and checked DI. However, it looked rather obvious to me around F5 or F6 that the judges ( maybe producers?) did not want Lance or Cody in the F2. Although they were getting good comments (up to a point), their scores and their comments began to wax and wane at the point when it was time for Brooke and Warren to move into the undisputed F2 spots.

    If...If the producers and judges are indeed looking for a showdown between Gilles and Melissa, then we will begin to see some subtle manipulation begin.

    It will be interesting to see what happens, but I wouldn't bet the farm that the producers allow the viewers to strictly select exactly who they want to be in the F2. The producers have already said they reserve the right to tweak ( paraphrased but correct idea) the show for entertainment purposes.
    ***********
    This is what I was trying to say. I still believe that the scores will be given such that a Gilles/Melissa final is most probable. What is making it a bit dicey is Shawn's surprising command of the fan polls.
    Melissa has very loyal fans, but the numbers are dwarfed by Shawn's.
    The funny thing is that Gilles, a solid number 2 in most fan polls, looks like the only true lock for the finals because they need him there.

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by sdl;3422609;
    **SPOILERS**
    I'm trying not to run afoul of the rules here but I've been told that this is a spoilers thread so it's ok. Here goes:
    I follow every fan poll I can find on the internet and there are a bunch. A few are good, meaning that they are regularly updated, have large sample sizes, and draw from a wide array of demographic groups. I then watch every week to see how accurate the polls are in predicting the order of elimination thus far.
    Some polls are biased for obvious reasons, e.g the one on another Bachelor message board, or the Des Moines Register (Shawn's hometown newspaper). Some still include preseason votes, before loyalties were solidified. One respected website, that measures the busy signal, has had a terrible record for accuracy this season and may be on it's way out as fewer people are phoning in their votes and the network has figured out how to clear logjams in certain key regions.
    When you read enough of these polls, definite trends are seen.
    Shawn was a prohibitive preseason favorite. She then slipped a bit as others gained strength. Most recently, like the last two weeks, she has come back like gangbusters. This is what prompted my note - I was surprised that she seemed to be pulling away, definitely not the sense one would have from reading the comments here. Shawn leads virtually every fan poll I've seen, some by huge margins.
    Gilles started with nothing and built a substantial fan base, but we wondered if they would stick around because he wasn't a big star. Interesting that in the week when he arguably did his worst dance, his numbers got even better. That indicates loyal fan support. He is a few points behind Shawn and way ahead (about 2 to 1) of the next contestant in the best poll I follow.
    Melissa and Ty are in the next group, surprisingly close together.
    Lil Kim and Chuck are clearly at the bottom in terms of fan support. Kim's improvement in dancing has only slightly been reflected in her poll numbers, but not enough to make a difference.
    If the fans controlled the process, the F2 at this point would certainly be Shawn and Gilles, and Chuck would go home this week.
    The judges' vote accounts for 50% of the total, however, and a point or two there can wipe out millions of fan votes. That's why this show doesn't often have "shock" eliminations like AI for example. Look at this season, and how predictable the order of elimination has been. The judges set the pace, with the fans breaking "ties."
    Unless Chuck blows it this week, Ty will be going home.
    I also have a sneaking suspicion we'll see Melissa and Gilles in the finals.
    Neither of these reflect true fan preference, but it's the way the show works.
    I agree about Shawn. I think she's got the most name recognition, with the most recent sucess of any of the contestants and probably the most "rigid" fan base. I think though you are also right to the extent that she could be undone by judge's scores if she falters in a dance at the end (not much before).

    I agree that Ty has popularity but it's a likeability which towards the end counts for less when people really concentrate on the dancing. But I hope he goes before Chuck about whom I have little good to say (so I will say nothing).

    I agree on Kim. I think she's one that people instinctively didn't want to like, kinda did, but still have doubts about her (background, realness, etc), and when it comes to crunch time she may fall short.

    I only disagree about Gilles and Melissa, and I try not to let my "bias" interfere. But, I really think that a) Melissa has a more set in stone base than he does overall, and I think she's been growing more as both a performer and a personality, while lately he's been a little more off (his last interview on the radio was somewhat of a disaster with the whining about a lost car, injuries, ADD, etc). I personally think they are all just tired. And b) he may have peaked earlier with his strong dances coming at the front end of the competition. It's really hard when you get 10s early on to keep it up as we've seen on this show.

    I would most like a Gilles/Melissa final becasue I think it's the most contrast and frankly from what I have seen and heard they get along great (and Tony and Gilles have become good friends). And overall I think they have consistently been the best for different reasons.

    But there's a part of me that thinks: have we ever had 2 women compete for the final trophy before? I know we've had 2 men, but I can't recall 2 women. I think I might likey that as well....

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by sdl;3422626;
    ***********
    This is what I was trying to say. I still believe that the scores will be given such that a Gilles/Melissa final is most probable. What is making it a bit dicey is Shawn's surprising command of the fan polls.
    Melissa has very loyal fans, but the numbers are dwarfed by Shawn's.
    The funny thing is that Gilles, a solid number 2 in most fan polls, looks like the only true lock for the finals because they need him there.
    I quite agree with your analysis. I knew Shawn was tptb pre-season favorite before Melissa came on the scene. When Melissa came on the favorite was switched to Melissa. During the dancing, Gilles was unveiled as one who drew the crowds and his fan base grew. On one hand people may vote for Shawn, but the concentration of views is on Gilles. I noticed something urreal on monday and I could be wrong. But, could be right. I feel, tptb want Gilles, Melissa and Shawn in the final three. The thing is

    1) there is not much difference between Melissa and Shawn's dancing. both very impressive in technique but not much expression. ( by the way I really did like Melissa's footwork on the AT. It is true no other contestant has exhibited the same level of footwork with the AT. Also the AT is quite a cold/rigid expressionles dance, very technical on the footwork with no emotion, so Melissa was brillant).
    2) Derek and Lil'Kim's rumba was hot, not raunchy hot but seductive hot. For all the judges to speak negatively of it made me feel like, they wanted a distance between Lil'Kim and their top three. Like they could not take a chance of her getting to the top three. Even putting Chuck before her when her dance was defineately better than Chuck's, expressed that. I feel okay, because I feel Lil'Kim is ready to have fun making no difference if she wins or not.
    3) During the practice for the dance. I noticed as usual that Melissa screen shots outweighed everyone else's. Actors/actresses fight, argue, refuse movies etc about screen time. I know Kim Cantrall insisted she had the same amount of screen time as Sarah Jessica Parker or she was not doing sitc movie. Screen time is big and important. we realized on the bachelor how the F1 was given more screen time. The miore we see somebody on our screens the more we empathise with the person and come to love them. TPTB want us to like Melissa as she is getting increasingly more screen time than the others.

    Yes, that is why I feel the F3 is kind of already determined.

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by illusions;3422632;
    It seems to me like any time you send in votes and they are not disclosed to the viewing public, those votes could be tweaked however TPTB want them to go. If we can't see the actual numbers, how are we supposed to definitely know? Like on AI where they say 40 thousand votes were cast last night, well whippee doo. Doesn't tell us how many votes each person got...sealed auditor envelope or not.

    I almost wish they had a way to show us the votes as they came in even if it was like a poll where you can vote or view results. But I guess that wouldn't work because then the lines would crash with fans trying to get in last minute votes to help their star out of last place or something.

    And sdl, how in the world do you manage to have the time to check out all those polls? LOL

    Good point, thanks. I guess I'm too trusting to think they never tweak the votes. I too almost wish there was a way to show us the votes as they come in.

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by illusions;3422632;

    And sdl, how in the world do you manage to have the time to check out all those polls? LOL
    ***********
    I'm not proud of it.
    One more thing.......I honestly believe that this show is manipulated in small ways by the judges, but a tiny change on a judges scorecard will wipe out almost anything the fans try to do.
    The example Bloomers gave of Lance Bass vs. Warren Sapp was dead on. They lifted Lance when it didn't matter because the guy really could dance, and it created the illusion that he would compete. Then they shaved a few points at the end because he didn't fit the model.
    With apologies to those who loved it, Kim's number one performance 2 weeks ago was probably the third or fourth best dance that night. But they needed to stir things up after Gilles had the lead for 5 straight weeks. They needed to give her a boost. I think they want Kim in the mix but no way do they want her in the finals. Doesn't matter how well she dances. She has a checkered past and not enough fan support. They'll keep her close, and Carrie Ann may go goofy over her, but it's all a show.
    I believe Melissa will be scored in the top 3 for the rest of the season, regardless of what she does. Probably closer to top 2. They have to compensate for the narrow fan support, and justify the F2 finish. I expect another top of the leader board finish from her; maybe she'll earn it because she's a great dancer but that's sort of irrelevant to the producers.
    Gilles is a lock for the finals so they have to keep him close, but they don't want him to "win" yet. I don't believe they'll let him take the lead this week. Need to create more suspense. He'll be back on top soon enough though. He'll be a slight favorite going into the finals.
    It has seemed to me all season that Shawn was an excellent dancer who got no respect. Put side the fact that she's an emotionally stunted 17yo, she is nearly perfect technically, but she has been held back by the judges.
    Now I understand why. Her fan support is so strong that it upsets the applecart. I actually think they might give her a great score this week, to placate her fans, before starting to nitpick her into oblivion.
    I think they will bend over backwards to find good in Ty's performance this week, and will think Chuck has "regressed," but it doesn't really matter. Everyone knows Ty is a great guy who can't dance, and nobody gives a damn about Chuck. Both are going home soon.
    Ok, that was slightly more than "one thing."

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    If...If the producers and judges are indeed looking for a showdown between Gilles and Melissa, then we will begin to see some subtle manipulation begin.
    As well as actually affecting totally outcome, the judges' scores and comments also affect a certain segment of the voting population who are easily influenced by others' opinions - that being the judges' opinions and comments. We see that happening all the time with AI, so that is not a shot in the dark comment.

    It will be interesting to see what happens, but I wouldn't bet the farm that the producers allow the viewers to strictly select exactly who they want to be in the F2. The producers have already said they reserve the right to tweak ( paraphrased but correct idea) the show for entertainment purposes.

    And there lies the story of the ringer.

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by sdl;3422675;
    ***********
    I'm not proud of it.
    One more thing.......I honestly believe that this show is manipulated in small ways by the judges, but a tiny change on a judges scorecard will wipe out almost anything the fans try to do.
    The example Bloomers gave of Lance Bass vs. Warren Sapp was dead on. They lifted Lance when it didn't matter because the guy really could dance, and it created the illusion that he would compete. Then they shaved a few points at the end because he didn't fit the model.
    With apologies to those who loved it, Kim's number one performance 2 weeks ago was probably the third or fourth best dance that night. But they needed to stir things up after Gilles had the lead for 5 straight weeks. They needed to give her a boost. I think they want Kim in the mix but no way do they want her in the finals. Doesn't matter how well she dances. She has a checkered past and not enough fan support. They'll keep her close, and Carrie Ann may go goofy over her, but it's all a show.
    I believe Melissa will be scored in the top 3 for the rest of the season, regardless of what she does. Probably closer to top 2. They have to compensate for the narrow fan support, and justify the F2 finish. I expect another top of the leader board finish from her; maybe she'll earn it because she's a great dancer but that's sort of irrelevant to the producers.
    Gilles is a lock for the finals so they have to keep him close, but they don't want him to "win" yet. I don't believe they'll let him take the lead this week. Need to create more suspense. He'll be back on top soon enough though. He'll be a slight favorite going into the finals.
    It has seemed to me all season that Shawn was an excellent dancer who got no respect. Put side the fact that she's an emotionally stunted 17yo, she is nearly perfect technically, but she has been held back by the judges.
    Now I understand why. Her fan support is so strong that it upsets the applecart. I actually think they might give her a great score this week, to placate her fans, before starting to nitpick her into oblivion.
    I think they will bend over backwards to find good in Ty's performance this week, and will think Chuck has "regressed," but it doesn't really matter. Everyone knows Ty is a great guy who can't dance, and nobody gives a damn about Chuck. Both are going home soon.
    Ok, that was slightly more than "one thing."
    Great assesment. I see it the same way. The final 3 are locked in. I wonder about Lil'Kim and Shawn though. They might have to keep Shawn to F2 or F3 to placate her fans. Unless she absolutely tanks (maybe) in the latin dances, I feel she is locked into the final 3. Also what about Gilles? I do not feel Gilles is set for F1, check the screen time given to Gilles and Melissa. Melissa's time is way over that of every other contestant. I feel tptb will stick to plan and place Melisa as F1.

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    Re: 4/21 Results Show Discussion **SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by kultainen;3422650;
    I only disagree about Gilles and Melissa, and I try not to let my "bias" interfere. But, I really think that a) Melissa has a more set in stone base than he does overall, and I think she's been growing more as both a performer and a personality, while lately he's been a little more off (his last interview on the radio was somewhat of a disaster with the whining about a lost car, injuries, ADD, etc). I personally think they are all just tired. And b) he may have peaked earlier with his strong dances coming at the front end of the competition. It's really hard when you get 10s early on to keep it up as we've seen on this show.
    **********
    Your comments are so interesting that I want to respond, and then I will let this go.
    I honestly believe that we will be steered to a Gilles/Melissa final with one exception: a possible mental implosion by one of the participants.
    I'm a Gilles fan, but his dance last week was his worst yet. It wasn't the shoulder. He wasn't at all fluid - it didn't look like him. In contrast, he did great on the group dance, because it wasn't being scored.
    Gilles is a very emotional, almost fragile guy who is letting this competition get to him. The interview you referenced was nuts. I'm surprised that Cheryl, who treats him like a child in dance practice, hasn't told him to stop the whining and be a man.
    I think he'll be ok. They want him to dip about now so he can come roaring back for the "most exciting finale ever." The guy is incredibly talented and, while I agree about Melissa's development (and surprising strength), I still believe he has more natural charisma. So, at this point at least, he has to be the favorite to win.
    Shawn, whose vast popularity started this discussion, has already been pushed aside because we're pretty sure she's not in the script for the final.

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