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Thread: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

  1. #171
    Student of Life Tin Frizzy's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by sdl;3714270;
    *************
    This is an interesting poll, and thank you for posting it.
    I've been charting these polls for several seasons now and the AOL poll hasn't held up well. Sometimes you have to read these things and ask, "does that make sense?" especially when comparing them with other polls that have demonstrated more reliability.
    Bloomers cited the two most robust polls, as statisticians would refer to them, DialIdol (which isn't what it used to be) and Vote No. 1 (which is currently the best).
    Combining the judges scores with the fan votes, my grid says the elimination is too close to call between Kathy and Tom.
    (But if I go strictly by the numbers - by a hair - it's Kathy).

    How do you figure in text votes and votes from DWTS site on the motherboard? Does any of these polls account for any of these or only land-lines?
    It's got to be love.

  2. #172
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Tin Frizzy;3714284;
    How do you figure in text votes and votes from DWTS site on the motherboard? Does any of these polls account for any of these or only land-lines?
    ***********
    The short answer is that I don't differentiate in that way. It's what has put DialIdol in jeopardy.
    I search for numerous online polls and weight them based on past accuracy, sample size, how they collect their votes (ie can you vote 100x in one sitting), and sometimes just common sense when things look completely out of whack.
    I put these into a computer program, factor in the reliability index, then use the calculation the producers use to blend the fan vote with the judges' votes.....and it spits out a grid.
    It worked all last season until I got lazy and asked a friend to just text me the results on Tuesday afternoons. Not sure he/she is up for doing that again this season, since my sharing it in advance caused some tension, so for now it's back to the grid.
    I haven't run this week's pre-performance odds yet, but will post when I have enough data to do so.
    The one thing about DWTS - if you look at it scientifically and historically - is that it is by far the easiest show to predict. It just is......I can only think of one time my program got it wrong in the last two seasons - and that's because they did a recount of votes to make Shawn the champion by a tiny margin over Gilles last season.

  3. #173
    *Until Next Season...* karalott's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Vote #1 has predicted Chuck, Michael, and Debi are in danger of being voted off. In terms of the poll who people would be voting for, they all ranked in the bottom 3 in that order.

    On a plus side, Louie, Mya, and Natalie ranked in the top 3 in that order Aaron definitely went down, Melissa didn't rank very high up, and neither did Joanna.

  4. #174
    *Until Next Season...* karalott's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    I haven;t checked DI but Vote #1 says the most likely boots for tonight are Chuck and Michael, an outside chance of Aaron/Karina. I know I probably won't be that lucky, but sending good thoughts Chuck and Michael's way. Michael I wouldn't care to see leave, but I am enjoying Chuck.

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    *Until Next Season...* karalott's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Vote #1 has Michael, Melissa, and Aaron as the 3 most likely to go home tonight. From their poll, Melissa is dead last, Aaron second to last, and Michael rounding out the bottom 3.

    I still won't get excited until Natalie, Kelly, and Louie are safe.

  6. #176
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by karalott;3732441;
    Vote #1 has Michael, Melissa, and Aaron as the 3 most likely to go home tonight. From their poll, Melissa is dead last, Aaron second to last, and Michael rounding out the bottom 3.

    I still won't get excited until Natalie, Kelly, and Louie are safe.
    I was surprised when I checked DialIdol (which I know is not as accurate), and they have Natalie and Alec in the bottom 3. That didn't make me happy!! They also have Michael and Anna as safe - bottom three were Natalie, Louie and Donny! With an outside potential of Melissa.

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    *Until Next Season...* karalott's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    How accurate has DialIdol been this season? I'm putting all my faith in Vote #1, which has been pretty accurate with their predictions. I'm hoping that Aaron gets the boot, even though I won't miss Melissa/Mark. Next week should be interesting with the judges having a say in one of the couples going home. It'll be interesting if talent or bias comes into play when the judges make their votes. I don't really like this idea, because I don't trust their opinion. And if it's really about getting rid of the worse dancers, they need to land in the bottom 3 to begin with.

  8. #178
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Vote number 1 was accurate last season, but the season prior it was bonkers. There's a factoring in however of popularity and who did the worst dance, so that seems like it comes out better in the wash. Irvin and Vito were way out in front in terms of the worst dance.

    Dialidol actually got it right about Natalie leaving. It also showed Mark and Kelly getting the lion's share of the vote. I'm thrilled that Mark is getting so much support.

  9. #179
    *Until Next Season...* karalott's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    I haven't paid attention to DI all season but will now be pinning my hopes on both those sites for tomorrow's elimination DI is too close to call with the majority of couples, but right now predict Donny and Aaron as being safe. For Vote #1, they have Louie, Mya, Donny, and Mark for the top 4 spots (in that order) with Melissa, Aaron, and Michael bringing up the bottom 3.

  10. #180
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by karalott;3737272;
    I haven't paid attention to DI all season but will now be pinning my hopes on both those sites for tomorrow's elimination DI is too close to call with the majority of couples, but right now predict Donny and Aaron as being safe. For Vote #1, they have Louie, Mya, Donny, and Mark for the top 4 spots (in that order) with Melissa, Aaron, and Michael bringing up the bottom 3.
    Oh please let Aaron be the bottom vote getter and have there be no way the judges can save him , and have Melissa and Michael face off in the dance off. That would be my dream scenario.

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