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Thread: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

  1. #151
    FORT Fogey VAgirl79's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3709326;
    The judges' half of Kelly's score will ensure that she stays, I believe, as she was in the top group.
    If they are to go strictly by a combination of judges' points and fans' calls, it looks to me ( without taking text calls into account) that Ashley and Tom will leave. However, we don't know if they are going to select one man and one woman ( or two of the same gender), and we also have to take into account the very real factor that we discovered at the end of last season: In the "fine print" at the end of the credits, the show claims the rights to the decisions that are made which accounts for why sometimes a certain celebrity seemingly may "magically" stay on from week to week.
    Tom B. said last night that on the Results Show the lowest scoring man and woman would go home. So, it can't be both Ashley and Tom going home.

    Generally speaking, I pay little attention to Dial Idol for DWTS; from what I've seen over the seasons, it's rarely accurate. That's probably because of the online voting component, which is huge for this show, and can't be measured. DI usually works well for AI, but the system is not designed for DWTS, IMO.

  2. #152
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by VAgirl79;3709332;
    Tom B. said last night that on the Results Show the lowest scoring man and woman would go home. So, it can't be both Ashley and Tom going home.

    Generally speaking, I pay little attention to Dial Idol for DWTS; from what I've seen over the seasons, it's rarely accurate. That's probably because of the online voting component, which is huge for this show, and can't be measured. DI usually works well for AI, but the system is not designed for DWTS, IMO.
    For me, it is a good "overall" or sometimes "rough estimate" type gauge. For example, Macy and Michael scored on the bottom of the leader board, but they absolutely and clearly scored on the top of the DialIdol poll - several points ahead of the next contender. Now, the DI poll doesn't have to be totally accurate to give me that overall picture - Michael and Macy just "ain't" goin' home, no how, no way!!! The popular vote was there for those two in boocoodles.

    DI will often show trends. For instance, DI indicated 2 or 3 weeks in advance that Lil Kim and Sabrina would both be going home despite high judges' scores. Surprisingly and contrary to popular belief at the time, the popular vote really was not there for them, and eventually it caught up.

  3. #153
    Dreamer VelvetRed's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by VAgirl79;3709332;
    Generally speaking, I pay little attention to Dial Idol for DWTS; from what I've seen over the seasons, it's rarely accurate. That's probably because of the online voting component, which is huge for this show, and can't be measured. DI usually works well for AI, but the system is not designed for DWTS, IMO.
    I agree, based on the info and discussion from last season.
    The Bachelor/Bachelorette series is a soap opera with unskilled actors, bad writing, and beautiful locations...it even edits the real moon!

  4. #154
    FORT Fogey VAgirl79's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3709336;
    For me, it is a good "overall" or sometimes "rough estimate" type gauge. For example, Macy and Michael scored on the bottom of the leader board, but they absolutely and clearly scored on the top of the DialIdol poll - several points ahead of the next contender. Now, the DI poll doesn't have to be totally accurate to give me that overall picture - Michael and Macy just "ain't" goin' home, no how, no way!!! The popular vote was there for those two in boocoodles.

    DI will often show trends. For instance, DI indicated 2 or 3 weeks in advance that Lil Kim and Sabrina would both be going home despite high judges' scores. Surprisingly and contrary to popular belief at the time, the popular vote really was not there for them, and eventually it caught up.
    Trends it can show, yes. But I disagree with the idea that the popular vote was there for Macy and Michael in boocoodles. Based on the fact that both of the bottom scoring stars came in 1st at DI tells me that it's because a bunch of VFWers are using the program and voting for the worst. I don't believe for a second that Macy has a ton of votes. Michael I could buy because of football fans, but not Macy. I doubt Michael goes home because of football, which leaves Ashley. For the women, it should be between Macy and Kathy. ETA: In looking at the raw data, I think the problem is coming from sample size. You know how many total votes were cast for Macy via DI's program? 7, and 1 busy signal. Only 27 votes for Michael and 1 busy signal. There is no way to get anything remotely approaching an accurate prediction with that low of a sample size.

    The system is simply not designed to predict DWTS, IMHO. They use it for DWTS, but it was designed for AI, and that's a very different situation due to no online votes.
    Last edited by VAgirl79; 09-23-2009 at 11:03 AM.

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    FORT Fogey
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by VAgirl79;3709355;
    Trends it can show, yes. But I disagree with the idea that the popular vote was there for Macy and Michael in boocoodles. Based on the fact that both of the bottom scoring stars came in 1st at DI tells me that it's because a bunch of VFWers are using the program and voting for the worst. I don't believe for a second that Macy has a ton of votes. Michael I could buy because of football fans, but not Macy. I doubt Michael goes home because of football, which leaves Ashley. For the women, it should be between Macy and Kathy. ETA: In looking at the raw data, I think the problem is coming from sample size. You know how many total votes were cast for Macy via DI's program? 7, and 1 busy signal. Only 27 votes for Michael and 1 busy signal. There is no way to get anything remotely approaching an accurate prediction with that low of a sample size.

    The system is simply not designed to predict DWTS, IMHO. They use it for DWTS, but it was designed for AI, and that's a very different situation due to no online votes.
    Possibly you are right. Although official voting on Vote#1 doesn't start until next week, there are still some polls available. One of them asks which female star the reader thinks will be voted off first, and Macy is overwhelmingly the choice. Vote#1 is often correct.

  6. #156
    *Until Next Season...* karalott's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Hmm, vote number 1 has Joanna as the second female most likely to leave. Is it too much to hope for that possibly she won't be long for the show?

    Dial Idol still has Ashley as the male leaving, with Tom and Chuck rounding out the bottom 3. Apparently the females were too close to call by their margin.

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    FORT Fogey KatesMom's Avatar
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    Re: 9/23 Results Show Discussion **Spoilers**

    I have no idea how reliable this is, but I just wanted to say that when I checked the AOL DWTS poll yesterday afternoon, Kathy was the highest ranking female celebrity, with something like 46% of the votes. The next closest person to her had something like 10% of the votes. Like I said, I have no idea how reliable that is or how much FORT posters put into the AOL poll, but I throw it out there because I was really surprised that she was that far out in front. Macy and Debi Mazar were the two women at the bottom. For the guys, Chuck Liddell was at the top and Ashley was at the bottom.
    Last edited by MFWalkoff; 09-26-2009 at 11:24 AM.

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    Re: 9/23 Results Show Discussion **Spoilers**

    Quote Originally Posted by KatesMom;3710351;
    I have no idea how reliable this is, but I just wanted to say that when I checked the AOL DWTS poll yesterday afternoon, Kathy was the highest ranking female celebrity, with something like 46% of the votes. The next closest person to her had something like 10% of the votes. Like I said, I have no idea how reliable that is or how much FORT posters put into the AOL poll, but I throw it out there because I was really surprised that she was that far out in front. Macy and Debi Mazar were the two women at the bottom. For the guys, Chuck Liddell was at the top and Ashley was at the bottom.
    Kate'smom--hi.

    That's very interesting info! If you get a chance next week would you give us the AOL poll results too? And remind us of how this week's polls went?

    I hope you don't mind homework assignments.

    And if you can't do it--that's okay. It just would be very interesting to compare the AOL polls with how people feel here--and how the vote actually goes.

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    FORT Fogey KatesMom's Avatar
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    Re: 9/23 Results Show Discussion **Spoilers**

    Quote Originally Posted by Wind Dancer;3710373;
    Kate'smom--hi.

    That's very interesting info! If you get a chance next week would you give us the AOL poll results too? And remind us of how this week's polls went?

    I hope you don't mind homework assignments.

    And if you can't do it--that's okay. It just would be very interesting to compare the AOL polls with how people feel here--and how the vote actually goes.
    Sure! I check it every week anyway. I can't be bothered to vote on the ABC site, because it is such a pain now with everything re-vamped. And I don't put much into DialIdol because I don't think it is accurate with this show, because of all the online and text voting. But the AOL poll has always been interesting to me - so I will come back next week Tuesday afternoon and let you know where it is.

  10. #160
    FORT Fogey KatesMom's Avatar
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    Re: 9/23 Results Show Discussion **Spoilers**

    Quote Originally Posted by Wind Dancer;3710373;
    Kate'smom--hi.

    That's very interesting info! If you get a chance next week would you give us the AOL poll results too? And remind us of how this week's polls went?

    I hope you don't mind homework assignments.

    And if you can't do it--that's okay. It just would be very interesting to compare the AOL polls with how people feel here--and how the vote actually goes.
    I just went back and checked it today, to see where it was. Still the same rankings, but the numbers are slightly different. Here is where the poll ended yesterday (and interesting to me, given when everyone was called safe yesterday):

    MEN: Chuck (85%), Louie (4%), Donny (4%), Mark (2%), Michael (2%), Aaron (1%), Tom (1%), Ashley (0%). 31,080 votes counted.

    WOMEN: Kathy (40%), Melissa (23%), Mya (20%), Natalie (10%), Kelly (3%), Joanna (2%), Debi (1%), Macy (1%). 24,003 votes counted.

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