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Thread: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

  1. #161
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    Re: 9/23 Results Show Discussion **Spoilers**

    Quote Originally Posted by KatesMom;3710380;
    I just went back and checked it today, to see where it was. Still the same rankings, but the numbers are slightly different. Here is where the poll ended yesterday (and interesting to me, given when everyone was called safe yesterday):

    MEN: Chuck (85%), Louie (4%), Donny (4%), Mark (2%), Michael (2%), Aaron (1%), Tom (1%), Ashley (0%). 31,080 votes counted.

    WOMEN: Kathy (40%), Melissa (23%), Mya (20%), Natalie (10%), Kelly (3%), Joanna (2%), Debi (1%), Macy (1%). 24,003 votes counted.
    Katesmom--thanks so much for all the info!

    It is quite surprising to see how much the numbers fall off in that poll from really high levels for the leaders to the "other" contestants.

    Very different--IMO anyway--from the opinions we are seeing here.

  2. #162
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    Re: 9/23 Results Show Discussion **Spoilers**

    Quote Originally Posted by KatesMom;3710380;
    I just went back and checked it today, to see where it was. Still the same rankings, but the numbers are slightly different. Here is where the poll ended yesterday (and interesting to me, given when everyone was called safe yesterday):

    MEN: Chuck (85%), Louie (4%), Donny (4%), Mark (2%), Michael (2%), Aaron (1%), Tom (1%), Ashley (0%). 31,080 votes counted.

    WOMEN: Kathy (40%), Melissa (23%), Mya (20%), Natalie (10%), Kelly (3%), Joanna (2%), Debi (1%), Macy (1%). 24,003 votes counted.
    That's a completely dumbass poll. After the show was over on Monday Mark had 26% Donny 24% and on down the line. Then I guess a bunch of UFC fans started messing with the poll. Frankenstein has a hope in hell? Yeah..and Donny is a saint. Kelly was low in all the polls even after she danced..didn't reflect what happened at all.

  3. #163
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    Re: 9/23 Results Show Discussion **Spoilers**

    Quote Originally Posted by Andiemywestie;3710532;
    That's a completely dumbass poll. After the show was over on Monday Mark had 26% Donny 24% and on down the line. Then I guess a bunch of UFC fans started messing with the poll. Frankenstein has a hope in hell? Yeah..and Donny is a saint. Kelly was low in all the polls even after she danced..didn't reflect what happened at all.
    Definitely possible. And I don't know when things changed. I know when I went on Wednesday afternoon, after the women had danced too, Chuck was in first with something like 40-50% of the votes. So while his percentage might have gone up, it didn't move him from first place on Wednesday. I just thought it was interesting, because weren't Chuck and Louie the first two called safe for the men on Wednesday? And wasn't Kelly the one left until the end before being called safe, despite being tied for 2nd overall with judge's votes? They could be totally unrelated - but like I said before, I just found the poll results interesting, given who went home and the order in which certain people were called safe.

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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    I think it would also be interesting if folks from other sites such as Yahoo or MSN would check their polls and post those results as well.

    Although none of these polls officially count, they give us an idea of how the viewing audience is thinking.

    I know that sdl was good to bring us back some results from other places last season. Perhaps he will continue to do so as well.
    Also, he and some other people had a good handle on the mathematics involved in the way that the process actually worked.

  5. #165
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    I just checked Dial Idol. Though it'll likely change by tomorrow, and isn't known for being right anymore, I guess it's still fun to look at. Right now, it's too close to call between Tom/Cheryl, Kathy/Tony, Joanna/Derek, Mya/Dmitry, Kelly/Louis, and Michael/Anna. Now, I'm not entirely sure how to read Dial Idol, but are the numbers in the bar next to the contestants names supposed to represent their busy signal and where they potentially stand in the overall rankings in terms of fan voting? All other couples are predicted to be safe. No surprise that Tom and Kathy would be down there in the bottom. Possibly Michael as well. The others seem unlikely, but then again, you never know how the audience will vote and who's really being favored by the public.

    Vote number 1 doesn't have results up yet.

  6. #166
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by karalott;3713778;
    I just checked Dial Idol. Though it'll likely change by tomorrow, and isn't known for being right anymore, I guess it's still fun to look at. Right now, it's too close to call between Tom/Cheryl, Kathy/Tony, Joanna/Derek, Mya/Dmitry, Kelly/Louis, and Michael/Anna. Now, I'm not entirely sure how to read Dial Idol, but are the numbers in the bar next to the contestants names supposed to represent their busy signal and where they potentially stand in the overall rankings in terms of fan voting? All other couples are predicted to be safe. No surprise that Tom and Kathy would be down there in the bottom. Possibly Michael as well. The others seem unlikely, but then again, you never know how the audience will vote and who's really being favored by the public.

    Vote number 1 doesn't have results up yet.
    Here's what we have this morning:

    Both Tom and Kathy are tied at 18 on the bottom of the leaderboard. They are also tied on DialIdol on the bottom.
    However, on Vote#1 (in which the person is limited to 1 vote per computer) Chuck is on the bottom, followed closely by Kathy, and then Michael. Tom jumps up there a few points.

    Vote#1 has a history of being right something like 90 plus % of the time. This may be one of those times where the vote count is fairly close, and they make a decision. Tom may actually have more votes than Kathy; however, do they let an ailing but more dramatic choice in Tom go, or do they keep the beautiful, gracious, but less dramatic choice in Kathy?

    A good question also is: Who will be in the bottom 3 with those two? Will it be Kelly with the lower score (2% Vote #1) or Michael (1.35% Vote#1), or will it be Chuck who had 1 point higher judges' score (19), apparently a satisfactory number of DI calls (didn't help Macy last week!!), but low Vote #1 score (0.68%)?
    Dear paranoid people who check behind their shower curtains for murderers, if you do find one, what's your plan?

  7. #167
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3713865;
    Here's what we have this morning:

    Both Tom and Kathy are tied at 18 on the bottom of the leaderboard. They are also tied on DialIdol on the bottom.
    However, on Vote#1 (in which the person is limited to 1 vote per computer) Chuck is on the bottom, followed closely by Kathy, and then Michael. Tom jumps up there a few points.

    Vote#1 has a history of being right something like 90 plus % of the time. This may be one of those times where the vote count is fairly close, and they make a decision. Tom may actually have more votes than Kathy; however, do they let an ailing but more dramatic choice in Tom go, or do they keep the beautiful, gracious, but less dramatic choice in Kathy?

    A good question also is: Who will be in the bottom 3 with those two? Will it be Kelly with the lower score (2% Vote #1) or Michael (1.35% Vote#1), or will it be Chuck who had 1 point higher judges' score (19), apparently a satisfactory number of DI calls (didn't help Macy last week!!), but low Vote #1 score (0.68%)?
    I just checked the AOL poll. Again, this is all FWIW (and this week, the numbers are much lower - 1,688 for the guys and 874 for the ladies):

    Men - Donny (48%), Mark (35%), Tom (6%), Aaron (5%), Louie (4%), Mike and Chuck tied with 1%.

    Ladies - Kelly (33%), Natalie (31%), Mya (14%), Melissa (13%), Joanna (6%), Debi (2%), Kathy (1%).

    Is this week another double elimination? I really think Kathy is going home. If it is a man and a woman, then I am not sure who leaves for the men.

  8. #168
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    It's only a single elimination this week. The next double elimination will happen in week 5.

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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Mya has Rumba next week. Have we heard what the others have?

  10. #170
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    Re: DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

    Quote Originally Posted by KatesMom;3713970;
    I just checked the AOL poll. Again, this is all FWIW (and this week, the numbers are much lower - 1,688 for the guys and 874 for the ladies):

    Men - Donny (48&#37, Mark (35%), Tom (6%), Aaron (5%), Louie (4%), Mike and Chuck tied with 1%.

    Ladies - Kelly (33%), Natalie (31%), Mya (14%), Melissa (13%), Joanna (6%), Debi (2%), Kathy (1%).

    Is this week another double elimination? I really think Kathy is going home. If it is a man and a woman, then I am not sure who leaves for the men.
    *************
    This is an interesting poll, and thank you for posting it.
    I've been charting these polls for several seasons now and the AOL poll hasn't held up well. Sometimes you have to read these things and ask, "does that make sense?" especially when comparing them with other polls that have demonstrated more reliability.
    Bloomers cited the two most robust polls, as statisticians would refer to them, DialIdol (which isn't what it used to be) and Vote No. 1 (which is currently the best).
    Combining the judges scores with the fan votes, my grid says the elimination is too close to call between Kathy and Tom.
    (But if I go strictly by the numbers - by a hair - it's Kathy).
    Last edited by sdl; 09-29-2009 at 07:27 PM.

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