DialIdol & Fan Poll Discussion for DWTS **POSSIBLE SPOILERS**

[Aceon6]

Actually, DI's been right more often than not if you just look at the "raw data" page. The folks at the bottom of the list each week have been voted off. This week's raw numbers have Ty just behind Gilles.

It's harder and harder to use DI. More people have text and ABC lets you vote online. Any skewing of voting behavior in those two media really changes the final result.

[Google]

 

[I'msotired]

Originally Posted by karalott

I can't believe Shawn would be at the bottom, unless her fans assumed she was safe (I guess pulling a Sabrina) and decided to take the night off. Mark will be livid if they get sent home. By their accounts, it does look close, but there's the other outlets of voting that they don't measure.

I'd actually pay to see Mark's reaction, lol, but Shawn deserves to be in the final 3.

[Reggie24]

It would be interesting if like on AI Tom would at mention how many votes were tallied each week. "After 30 million votes were tallied, we can now reveal (in no particular order) the next couple who is safe to dance next week."

[kultainen]

Originally Posted by karalott

I can't believe Shawn would be at the bottom, unless her fans assumed she was safe (I guess pulling a Sabrina) and decided to take the night off. Mark will be livid if they get sent home. By their accounts, it does look close, but there's the other outlets of voting that they don't measure.

Ireally have no clue, but my 2 cents anyway: As the number of dancers decrease, the number of voters either increases (all shows tend to draw more voters as the end approaches) or remains static. So, big question: where are the votes of the elimniated going? Hard to really know. Chuck's probably goes to Ty. Kim? Some say Gilles, but I tend to think Mel. Mainly because it isn't Shawn. But really not knowing makes it harder to predict.

Dial idol has had less success with DWTS than AI. DI has Shawn in last place. I find that hard to believe, unless one of three things happened: the others are picking up the eliminated votes and overtaking her original lead; or, hr voters were complacent; or people have finally decided that she's 17 and too young for this show. Last night for the first time my husband said that he was appalled at how made up she was and it disturbed him.

I think TPTB don't manipulate the voting, but I do think they try to direct it. Again, like AI. Knock someone and their vote goes up. Damn with gentle praise and you are more likely to get rid of the one you don't want. Overscore one who is not quite as popular to make up for the (smaller) fan base.

Overall, I still think Ty goes. But, if it's Ty, Shawn and Gilles..I go wth Shawn. It if Ty, Mel and Gilles, I go with Mel. If it's Ty, Mel and Shawn, maybe Ty. I think gender splits may then become determinative. Which is why I think Mel, Shawn and Gilles favors Gilles (though I don't).

[anders332]

Originally Posted by illusions

I forgot this thread was here since it was on the second page.

DialIdol is showing the following from last night:

Gilles - 1-3 / 58.35
Melissa - 1-4 / 52.84
Ty - 1-4 / 48.05
Shawn - 2-4 / 40.76

Where is sdl? If this is any sort of representation of the possible scenario, it sure looks like Ty (and Jewels) fans are voting their fingers off.

Ty is definitely not better than the other three so I can see an upset coming tonight. I don't know that it will be Shawn, but could be Melissa.

okay, I'm usually really good at Math, but those numbers don't add up to 100. Can someone explain to me how these numbers are derived?

[karalott]

Originally Posted by I'msotired

I'd actually pay to see Mark's reaction, lol, but Shawn deserves to be in the final 3.

I would too, but I just don't want Ty to move on. Not because I don't like him (if he could take Shawn or Melissa out I'd be happy-preferably the latter), but I just think him advancing and possibly winning is just not going to sit well. The show may completely revamp the format next year, keep the dance offs and do it like they do on SCD (which makes it pointless to vote in the first place), or have some other voting measure in place that makes the judges have the final say in who goes. However, I don't completely trust TPTB anyway. They seem to rely more on the drama, showmances, injuries, and controversies of this show than the actual dancing anymore. So what would make a better outcome tonight, either send Ty packing and get the darlings in the final 3, or send home Shawn or Melissa (for her "off" night), or Gilles () who was given the first perfect 60 and told by the judges they want him and he deserves to be in the finals. I can't imagine the backlash those 3 leaving would cause. And have Ty in the finals, and possibly win, would make this show more of a mockery than it is to some people. However, I'm curious what type of reaction Ty would have if he won. I don't think he'd be anymore excited than he's already shown But he'd go from being the reluctant husband who did this for his wife, who overcame the mean judges comments, bad dancing, better dancers, to the most improved and hard working of the ballroom and gets his prize.

[jcsorrels]

I don't begin to understand how DialIdol works for DWTS, but just looking at the raw numbers from the top 4 makes me think that both Mel & Shawn are getting a lot of votes.

Apparently 2387 calls were made, but only 1837 votes were actually cast as the rest were busy signals.

This is a very small sample, but most polls are. The important question is whether or not it is representative of the rest of the phone voters out there that don't use the software. Who knows, but let's assume for this discussion that it is.

As for the other types of votes (text and online) back when WOZ complained that ABC was trying to fix the results, it was explained to him/us that one of the safety factors against that was that they look for anomalies such as disproportionate totals when comparing phone,text and online votes. ABC's assumption is that these totals should be similar percentage wise. In other words, if WOZ got few phone votes but a huge online vote, something inappropriate might be going on.

So, assuming that DI is representative of phone votes and assuming that text and online votes are similar percentage wise, then we have the following:

% of votes attempted (includes busy attempts):

Mel = 34%
Shawn = 26%
Gilles = 21%
Ty = 17%

% of votes that got through:

Mel = 31%
Shawn = 30%
Gilles = 21%
Ty = 16%

Of the votes that actually got in, Mel only got 3 more than Shawn. But Mel apparently lost 240 votes to busy signals while Shawn only lost 70. We have to keep in mind here that ALL text and online votes go through. This would bode well % wise for Mel.

Either way, if....and this is a big if...the above assumptions are correct, then neither should be worried tonight as they have virtually the same judge's scores. Gilles perfect 60 makes up for millions of votes. Ty should be gone.

[ryansmommy]

Originally Posted by kultainen

Ireally have no clue, but my 2 cents anyway: As the number of dancers decrease, the number of voters either increases (all shows tend to draw more voters as the end approaches) or remains static. So, big question: where are the votes of the elimniated going? Hard to really know. Chuck's probably goes to Ty. Kim? Some say Gilles, but I tend to think Mel. Mainly because it isn't Shawn. But really not knowing makes it harder to predict.

Dial idol has had less success with DWTS than AI. DI has Shawn in last place. I find that hard to believe, unless one of three things happened: the others are picking up the eliminated votes and overtaking her original lead; or, hr voters were complacent; or people have finally decided that she's 17 and too young for this show. Last night for the first time my husband said that he was appalled at how made up she was and it disturbed him.

I think TPTB don't manipulate the voting, but I do think they try to direct it. Again, like AI. Knock someone and their vote goes up. Damn with gentle praise and you are more likely to get rid of the one you don't want. Overscore one who is not quite as popular to make up for the (smaller) fan base.

Overall, I still think Ty goes. But, if it's Ty, Shawn and Gilles..I go wth Shawn. It if Ty, Mel and Gilles, I go with Mel. If it's Ty, Mel and Shawn, maybe Ty. I think gender splits may then become determinative. Which is why I think Mel, Shawn and Gilles favors Gilles (though I don't).

I strongly doubt Melissa benefits from die-hard voting Lil'Kim fans, if that community is representative of those deeply disappointed by Lil’Kim's cut and at the same time, expressed annoyance that Melissa had, a week earlier, received a free pass for not dancing at all.

[Blues Songstres]

Originally Posted by jcsorrels

I don't begin to understand how DialIdol works for DWTS, but just looking at the raw numbers from the top 4 makes me think that both Mel & Shawn are getting a lot of votes.

Apparently 2387 calls were made, but only 1837 votes were actually cast as the rest were busy signals.

This is a very small sample, but most polls are. The important question is whether or not it is representative of the rest of the phone voters out there that don't use the software. Who knows, but let's assume for this discussion that it is.

As for the other types of votes (text and online) back when WOZ complained that ABC was trying to fix the results, it was explained to him/us that one of the safety factors against that was that they look for anomalies such as disproportionate totals when comparing phone,text and online votes. ABC's assumption is that these totals should be similar percentage wise. In other words, if WOZ got few phone votes but a huge online vote, something inappropriate might be going on.

So, assuming that DI is representative of phone votes and assuming that text and online votes are similar percentage wise, then we have the following:

% of votes attempted (includes busy attempts):

Mel = 34%
Shawn = 26%
Gilles = 21%
Ty = 17%

% of votes that got through:

Mel = 31%
Shawn = 30%
Gilles = 21%
Ty = 16%

Of the votes that actually got in, Mel only got 3 more than Shawn. But Mel apparently lost 240 votes to busy signals while Shawn only lost 70. We have to keep in mind here that ALL text and online votes go through. This would bode well % wise for Mel.

Either way, if....and this is a big if...the above assumptions are correct, then neither should be worried tonight as they have virtually the same judge's scores. Gilles perfect 60 makes up for millions of votes. Ty should be gone.

All the raw numbers on DI represent are the votes of those who use DI to vote. It isn't representative of the voting population as a whole.

[karalott]

I have given in to the fact that there's a possibility Gilles won't win. Polls may not mean anything, especially at this stage, but I know he went in not being well known. I think he's definitely made a big impression from the first week, but he's still up against people who have equally strong fanbases. Of course, I never would have thought Brooke Burke could pull a win off over well known celebs, so hopefully the same can be said this season.