Someone will have to run the numbers for us (not me, Im terrible with numbers) because:

-in total (this one month home) and then the at-home time: they will at least be home for two or three months

-average half the wieght loss on the ranch...Mike could lose about 5 lbs per week, right?

-If mike loses 5 lbs/week and they are home at the minimum two months total--mike loses 50 pounds (and he is still big enough to lose that much..and maybe more)

-If Tara lost half of that...25 pounds more...where would the percentages be?

-I just don't think Helen (particularly) and Tara can lose that much more weight...can you imagine Helen losing 25 more pounds--she would be pushing 'too thin' for her height. And, right now, their percentages are VERY close, with Mike, Tara and Helen as 1, 2, 3.

If Mike averages a steady loss (that has been half of what he lost on the ranch) I do not think it is possible for Tara and Helen to win..because they can't lose much more!

Can someone please run the numbers?

Oh--I wanted to add--I love the two hour format and I am pumped about 3 (I love this show!!!).