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Thread: Playing with the numbers

  1. #31
    Go CATS!!!! mandmmom2's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with the numbers

    I'm hoping the top three are Ada, Elizabeth, and Patrick. BUT I know that won't happen. I'd like Ada to compete with Patrick and Elizabeth b/c Frado is so far ahead and still has tons to loose.

    I do think there is a big possibility that Frado and Patrick won't loose as much this week though...they had huge numbers....I still wonder about those numbers.
    "Where you are today is where your mind put you. Where you'll be tomorrow is where your mind puts you." Billy Banks

  2. #32
    PWS
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    Re: Playing with the numbers

    Well, 6 more weeks to go if I've understood their hints about timing correctly (well, one more week for us, but you know what I mean), and the guys seem to be in the lead. Those two or three lost weeks really hurt Ada. I think the editing is setting us up for a Patrick win...he really needs the $$, his wife is on board with the food, stuff...and Ada is seen as all happy with her family now. And looking at the numbers, Patrick does seem to be better positioned to win, even though Frado is slightly in the lead at the moment. If they both reach 50% weight loss Patrick will still be slightly above the upper limit of "normal" for his height, while Frado won't, so Patrick will still be finding it easier to lose.
    Currently in the race to have lost half their initial weight, the rankings are:
    Fredo has lost 79.5% of what he needs to have lost to reach a 50% loss
    Patrick has lost 78%
    Ada 70.5%
    Elizabeth 54.9%

    If you look at the height/weight charts you can see that at a 50% loss Patrick is still outside that range, while the othes are all in it.... and Patrick could even hit a 55% weight loss and be comfortably in it, while both women would be below the bottom line on desirable weight.

    Patrick at 6'2" has a normal range of 155-197, and a 50% weight loss would mean he would weigh 200. A 55% loss would put him at 180.
    Fredo at 6'0" has a normal range of 149-188, and a 50% weight loss would mean he would weigh 183.5. A 55% loss would put him at 165.
    Ada at 5'6" has a normal range of 120-159, and a 50% weight loss would mean she would weigh 129. A 55% loss would put her at 116.
    Elizabeth at 5'4" has a normal range of 114-151, and a 50% weight loss would mean she would weigh 122. A 55% loss would put her at 110.
    Last edited by PWS; 12-08-2010 at 03:40 PM.

  3. #33
    Go CATS!!!! mandmmom2's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with the numbers

    Yeah....I have a feeling Patrick will win but I really want Ada to win!!!
    "Where you are today is where your mind put you. Where you'll be tomorrow is where your mind puts you." Billy Banks

  4. #34
    PWS
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    Re: Playing with the numbers

    Another way to look at the numbers is to compare what they lost this last round, which was apparently over 6 weeks, with what they still needed to lose over the next 6 weeks before the finale to hit 50%....

    Patrick lost 35 and needs to lose 44 more
    Fredo lost 27 and needs to lose 37.5 more
    Ada lost 12 and needs to lose 38 more
    Elizabeth lost 15 and needs to lose 55 more

    Of course we know Ada can do better than the little she did the last 6 weeks... but it sure would have been easier for her if she hadn't blown those two or three weeks. If she'd split the 50 lbs. evenly, 25 the first 6 weeks, 25 the second, it would have been more doable, especially as she'll really be getting so far into the normal range.

    And Patrick needs to up his game...Fredo still has a good chance.

  5. #35
    Go CATS!!!! mandmmom2's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with the numbers

    I do think Ada can lose the 38 more.....she is tough and even though she basically lost three weeks she is still tough and a true competitor. I just worry that she'll slow down b/c of being smaller but hoping the men hit their "block" this last few weeks.
    "Where you are today is where your mind put you. Where you'll be tomorrow is where your mind puts you." Billy Banks

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