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Thread: Season 9 by the numbers...

  1. #21
    PWS
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    One thing to remember is that near the end of the show some of these people are carrying around 5 to 10 lbs. of "excess" skin, which they can't get removed until after the finale. There's a reason they don't take their shirts off at the finale! But what that means is to get down to say, 160 lbs. a contestant will "look" more like someone who weighs 5 or 10 lbs. less than that, sometimes fairly gaunt.

  2. #22
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Based on last night's weigh in:




    And I also calculated 60% for any interested parties...

  3. #23
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Wow, Daris only has a little over 20 lbs to go to get to the upper limit of his BMI group and 50%. And Michael could do 60% and still be a little above the upper limit of his BMI group.

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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Wow! Based on those numbers, I am going to have to expect Michael to be the winner. Daris doesn't have a chance. He said he was 17% fat. He doesn't have enough fat to lose! Just looking at him, it seems like he's got a lot of muscle going on under there! He would have to lose muscle if he wanted to win.
    Michael is overweight even at 60%. How can he not win?
    Ashley has a good chance too. I wouldn't count Koli out of it though. He's driven and doesn't seem to be as muscular as Daris. Also, he has a 4% lead on both of the true contenders.

  5. #25
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Quote Originally Posted by RealityLovesMe;3901318;
    Wow! Based on those numbers, I am going to have to expect Michael to be the winner. Daris doesn't have a chance. He said he was 17% fat. He doesn't have enough fat to lose! Just looking at him, it seems like he's got a lot of muscle going on under there! He would have to lose muscle if he wanted to win.
    Michael is overweight even at 60%. How can he not win?
    Ashley has a good chance too. I wouldn't count Koli out of it though. He's driven and doesn't seem to be as muscular as Daris. Also, he has a 4% lead on both of the true contenders.
    Not true bodybuilders get to 6% or less body fat for contests. I fact there have been professional bodybuilders who have gone down as low as 3%, but it was only for the contest.
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  6. #26
    Fool... but no pity. Krom's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Quote Originally Posted by Missyboxers;3901173;
    Based on last night's weigh in:




    And I also calculated 60% for any interested parties...
    These numbers clearly give it to either Michael or Ashley. I mean... assuming 55% is the "real" final target for an expected winner, and not 50%.

    Michael's got the biggest discrepancy between the ideal weight for his height and what he has to still lose to get his 55% off his starting weight. He has to lose the MOST pounds, but since the "ideal" is still so much lower, they are do-able. Standard height/weight chart gives a weight of 179 as the "target" for a man his height. But MICHAEL'S target for 55% is way up at 236.7, so he's got a HUGE cushion.

    Ashley isn't so bad either. Her ideal target weight on that "standard" chart would apparently be 136. Whereas her 55% is 168.3? Again, there's a nice cushion.

    The other two appear screwed. Daris would have to go BELOW his ideal for his height (171 pounds--and those are unrealistic ideals) by at least five MORE pounds, and each ounce would be a hard loss at that point. Koli DOES have a cushion too, like Michael and Ashley, but where theirs are generous, his is only about 10 pounds above his "ideal on a chart" (of 179 pounds) to reach 55% (which means in effect that Ashely and Michael losing MORE than 55% is fairly achievable, while it would be a real effort for Koli).

    Putting it bluntly... Ashley and Michael, being "fattest" to start with relative to their heights have only the challenge of continual uninterrupted losses to face, whereas Koli and Darus have to face FAR less pounds to lose, but would have to battle against their own metabolisms much harder.

    This only breaks down if either Michael or Ashley's weight loss routines at home totally break down and they can't even reach past the 50% mark in time. They have to keep losing, whereas with Koli and Darus it would be more about maintaining, and slowly carving away muscle in favor of... umm... less muscle I guess. I GUESS Koli could do that. He's a fairly muscular guy, and if he ditches those big guns of his that will effect his weight.
    Last edited by Krom; 05-13-2010 at 07:53 AM.

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  7. #27
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Quote Originally Posted by Krom;3901852;
    These numbers clearly give it to either Michael or Ashley. I mean... assuming 55% is the "real" final target for an expected winner, and not 50%.

    Michael's got the biggest discrepancy between the ideal weight for his height and what he has to still lose to get his 55% off his starting weight. He has to lose the MOST pounds, but since the "ideal" is still so much lower, they are do-able. Standard height/weight chart gives a weight of 179 as the "target" for a man his height. But MICHAEL'S target for 55% is way up at 236.7, so he's got a HUGE cushion.

    Ashley isn't so bad either. Her ideal target weight on that "standard" chart would apparently be 136. Whereas her 55% is 168.3? Again, there's a nice cushion.

    The other two appear screwed. Daris would have to go BELOW his ideal for his height (171 pounds--and those are unrealistic ideals) by at least five MORE pounds, and each ounce would be a hard loss at that point. Koli DOES have a cushion too, like Michael and Ashley, but where theirs are generous, his is only about 10 pounds above his "ideal on a chart" (of 179 pounds) to reach 55% (which means in effect that Ashely and Michael losing MORE than 55% is fairly achievable, while it would be a real effort for Koli).

    Putting it bluntly... Ashley and Michael, being "fattest" to start with relative to their heights have only the challenge of continual uninterrupted losses to face, whereas Koli and Darus have to face FAR less pounds to lose, but would have to battle against their own metabolisms much harder.

    This only breaks down if either Michael or Ashley's weight loss routines at home totally break down and they can't even reach past the 50% mark in time. They have to keep losing, whereas with Koli and Darus it would be more about maintaining, and slowly carving away muscle in favor of... umm... less muscle I guess. I GUESS Koli could do that. He's a fairly muscular guy, and if he ditches those big guns of his that will effect his weight.
    Funny I would never ever describe Koli as muscular. Sam yes. Koli no. Until this weeks weight in I couldn't even see his delts and they are now showing.
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  8. #28
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    For what it's worth, Sam essentially said he was done losing weight in the 235-240 range, which is about 35 lbs over the healthy BMI for his height-- I could see Daris and Koli also not hitting the healthy range because of the muscle factor and any extra skin they might have.

  9. #29
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Quote Originally Posted by Missyboxers;3902407;
    For what it's worth, Sam essentially said he was done losing weight in the 235-240 range, which is about 35 lbs over the healthy BMI for his height-- I could see Daris and Koli also not hitting the healthy range because of the muscle factor and any extra skin they might have.
    I agree. Another thing...BMI doesn't take into account muscle vs fat.
    "Where you are today is where your mind put you. Where you'll be tomorrow is where your mind puts you." Billy Banks

  10. #30
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    So it is Koli vs. Daris for the last spot in the finale. If you are Michael or Ashley, you want Daris to get it because he has no chance. Koli could win if Michael and Ashley stumble a time or 2.
    Nobody can maintain a really low body fat percentage unless they are a pro athlete. Apolo Ohno is supposed to be 2% body fat. His life is a constant workout. I don't know if that can be achieved at home. Whatever the case, seems like Daris is better off fighting for the at-home prize.
    Also, 26 is the BMI that is cutoff point for Pacific Islanders. It is 25 for whites. 23 for Asians. Sam and Koli don't have to aim for a BMI below 25. They have to aim for a BMI below 26.

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