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Thread: Finale predictions

  1. #1
    Fool... but no pity. Krom's Avatar
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    Finale predictions

    Here's mine:


    Third finalist as voted by America (or at least "America" who is willing to vote on NBC.com with their full personal details): Mark. Because Roger came off as a real schmuck in his appeal video and America will fall for the crying.

    Biggest percentage loss of the F3 since campus (lets call this "the biggest final transformation award": Kelly. This won't win the show for her, because its about what they did from Day 1, but having had the most left to lose of the final four, excepting Roger, she'll look the most different from when we last saw her. If I am wrong about who America picks though, then it could be Roger as the "biggest final transformation".

    "At Home" winner: Curtis. He still had enough left to lose, even after the 100 he dropped for his "return". I suppose Jay would be his main competition, right?


    Overall winner:


    Mind you, I HAVEN'T crunched the numbers. Someone who has will have a better idea of what's possible. But it just seems like since this is from Day 1, NOT since we last saw them, that the fact that Ali and Mark didn't have much left to take off might not be as big a deal as it might seem. But between the two of them, Mark, as a guy, has more of a cushion. I mean what's the lightest Ali could get without dipping into unhealthy territory for her body type? 120? Do we have heights recorded on these people somewhere?

    {EDIT - We do.

    Ali - 5' 5"
    Mark - 5' 10"
    Kelly - 5' 6"
    Roger - 6' 3"

    END EDIT}

    Someone less lazy than me and better at numbers please number crunch and post! I'll take my guess at the winner then!

    EDIT 2 - Actually, taking a look at those heights makes me rethink my earlier conclusion that while Kelly will have changed the most since the last episode, that she can't win. She's only an inch taller than Ali, and weighed SO much more.

    I suppose I AM getting off my duff now and beginning to number crunch a bit. Except NBC.com's recording of those numbers is on a stupid graphic where you can't read the exact numbers. Still, with only an inch more of height, Kelly initially seemed to weigh almost 30-35 pounds MORE than Ali at the start. That actually gives Kelly an advantage at the end that's only restricted by well... her age. So maybe the notion of Kelly winning isn't that out there.
    Last edited by Krom; 04-10-2008 at 01:48 PM.

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  2. #2
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    Re: Finale predictions

    Okay, Krom, here's my expert (NOT!) analysis proving that I have way too much time on my hands (really I don't, but I need a break from work, anyway).

    Ali could reasonably get down to 120 and would be on the lower end of her healthy weight range. She probably wouldn't want to live there forever, but she could get there for the finale and given her drive and determination, I think she has the ability to lose an additional 15 lbs. That would give her a percentage weight loss of 48.7%. To beat that, Mark would have get down to 146 (an additional 23 lb loss), Roger would have to get down to 186 (an additional 33 lb loss) and Kelly would have to get down to 139 (an additional loss of 39 lbs). The only one of these that's below the ideal range in the healthy weight charts is Mark's. I'm guessing that they don't have more than 6 weeks at home for losing more weight.

    I'm going to pick Ali as the ultimate winner because she has shown me the fire that's in her to win this and she has already proven that she can do just as well at home as she has on campus. She's also currently in the lead based on percentages and the leader (among the finalists) going into the finale has won every other season of TBL. I wouldn't be surprised to see her even get below 120 because she really wants to be the biggest loser. Interestingly enough, if Mark is the third finalist chosen by America, I think he may be the one to give Ali her biggest competition, though I also think he would look very sickly at anything less than 155 lbs.

    I have to get back to work now.
    Last edited by MomAt40Pls; 04-10-2008 at 02:26 PM.

  3. #3
    the simple things babymay's Avatar
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    Re: Finale predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Krom;2908662;

    Someone less lazy than me and better at numbers please number crunch and post! I'll take my guess at the winner then!
    I don't have time to crunch them, but here are some #s for someone else to crunch ( I found a weight calculator for Peoples Choice Ideal Weight, Medical Recommendation & BMI:

    Ali: starting weight: 234lbs; height: 5'5"; age: 32; total #s lost at ranch: 99; % lost at ranch: 42% current weight: 135lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 126 Medical Recommendation: 114 - 150 lbs BMI: 22.5

    Kelli: starting weight: 271lbs; height: 5'6"; age: 38; total #s lost at ranch: 93; % lost at ranch: 34% current weight: 178lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 144 lbs Medical Recommendation: 118 - 155 lbs BMI: 27.9

    Roger: starting weight: 363lbs; height: 6'3"; age: 40; total #s lost at ranch: 144; % lost at ranch: 40% current weight: 219lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 202 lbs Medical Recommendation: 152 - 200 lbs BMI: 27.4

    Mark: starting weight: 285lbs; height: 5'10"; age: 35; total #s lost at ranch: 116; % lost at ranch: 41% current weight: 169lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 165 lbs Medical Recommendation: 132 - 174 lbs BMI: 24.2
    You've got to kiss a few frogs before you find your prince!

  4. #4
    Fool... but no pity. Krom's Avatar
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    Re: Finale predictions

    See, as long as Roger is out of things, those numbers really DO make things look pretty good for Kelly.

    If you looked only at her 34%, versus the others all being in the 40s, it would look bad for her. But if you instead concentrate on the absolute numbers--the fact that she's lost only 6 pound LESS at the Ranch than Ali, the person with the highest percentage of loss, then all Kelly has to do is lose at the SAME relative rate as the others during the "away" time and she'd MORE than catch up.

    I mean if you go by the medical recommendation for her height, she'd win up weighing only marginally more than Ali in an ideal world--and she started SO much higher--so theoretically the advantage is all hers.

    Of course as you say, willpower in the real world is a big deal. But it also depends on where they hit a wall that's too difficult to surpass. I mean they will be exercising as well as adjusting their eating, so there's also the potential to put on MUSCLE--which weighs more than the comparable fat. Ali's gotten muscular--which could actually get in her way a bit near the very end.

    "You don't rehearse Mr. T, you just turn him loose."
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    FORT Fanatic hikari's Avatar
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    Re: Finale predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by babymay;2908896;
    I don't have time to crunch them, but here are some #s for someone else to crunch ( I found a weight calculator for Peoples Choice Ideal Weight, Medical Recommendation & BMI:

    Ali: starting weight: 234lbs; height: 5'5"; age: 32; total #s lost at ranch: 99; % lost at ranch: 42% current weight: 135lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 126 Medical Recommendation: 114 - 150 lbs BMI: 22.5

    Kelli: starting weight: 271lbs; height: 5'6"; age: 38; total #s lost at ranch: 93; % lost at ranch: 34% current weight: 178lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 144 lbs Medical Recommendation: 118 - 155 lbs BMI: 27.9

    Roger: starting weight: 363lbs; height: 6'3"; age: 40; total #s lost at ranch: 144; % lost at ranch: 40% current weight: 219lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 202 lbs Medical Recommendation: 152 - 200 lbs BMI: 27.4

    Mark: starting weight: 285lbs; height: 5'10"; age: 35; total #s lost at ranch: 116; % lost at ranch: 41% current weight: 169lbs
    Peoples Choice Ideal Weight: 165 lbs Medical Recommendation: 132 - 174 lbs BMI: 24.2
    Wow. Thanks for all the numbers, Baby!

    The vision of Mark at 146 pounds gives me a psychic pain. That would be so dangerously low for him, it's not funny. My father was a similar build and an inch taller than Mark. His military weight when he was in primo shape was 175, which frankly is where I think Mark needs to be, ideally.

    Anybody remember the name of the previous contestant who showed up looking like a white Gandhi at the finale? I can't remember his name, or even his year, but he might have been 146 pounds.

    These wide weight ranges are supposed to take into account the body frame, not just the height. Thus, someone who is larger-boned AND who works out regularly will have more bone and muscle mass and therefore be heavier, even if they have no excess fat. 126 is doable for Ali, but any lower, she's in anorexic territory, no matter that the chart says she can go down to 114 pounds. She looked great even at 150, with all her new tone. If $250,000 wasn't on the line, I'd say she needs to stop now because 135 is perfect for her. Bear in mind that we are seeing these people on television, which adds 15 pounds visually--So Ali and Mark are even thinner in person than they appear to us.

    Roger's both big and tall. 186 on him would look sick, man. At 6'3" with a footballer's build, anything much below 200 is too thin. Can you imagine Rog at 150? He'd have to be hospitalized.

    This is the first season where so many contestants have gotten so thin at the ranch. Many have been close, but nobody has come as far as Mark or Ali. In fact, losing 100 pounds at the ranch has been a real milestone in the past and this year, it is positively commonplace, even among the girls. Kelly is a good 25 pounds past the point Isabeau ever reached last year, and Kelyy is older and was heavier going in. The numbers this season are truly amazing.

    Has this season been longer than previous ones? It seems like they have been on the ranch FOREVER, with relatively little time at home before the finale. Maybe they need to wrap the show earlier so that everyone still has weight to lose when they go home. At this point, Ali and Mark are strictly in it for gameplay--they do not need to lose any more, and actually, for their health, it is not advisable that they do.

    Given that, I think they need to reconfigure the way they award prizes. The current system encourages unhealthy levels of thinness. They should calculate healthy goal weights for each at the beginning and the first one to their goals gets the prize money. If they shortened the taping and made the ranch time shorter, we would see bigger transformations, and everyone would still be working on goal when they went home.

    Mark and Ali are getting to the point where they look like Olympic marathoners or starvation camp victims . . .I am concerned, truly, about those two getting too thin. Roger and Kelly will be just right when we see them next--which probably means they will lose for not going extreme enough.

  6. #6
    FORT Fanatic hikari's Avatar
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    Re: Finale predictions

    PS I think the answer to my own question was Mark from Season One. Just went back to the archives on the NBC site and looked at the 'After' pics from Season One. Only a couple of the guys were anywhere near 100 pound losses. Most of the women were still in the 140s. (and looked good, not gaunt or stringy, too).

    Ahh, those where kinder, gentler days. This season's poor cast really kicked it hardcore!

    Oh, and Mark was 165 . . .4 pounds smaller than our Mark is now--and he looked ill. C'est la vie!

  7. #7
    chavy chaf chaf Asteroids Champion, Bejeweled 2 Champion, GalaGalaGa Champion, Add It Up Champion, Beat The Meter Champion, BejeweledŽ 2 Action Champion, Little Protectors Champion spockwhat's Avatar
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    Re: Finale predictions

    Mark and Ali are getting to the point where they look like Olympic marathoners or starvation camp victims
    No, they are not.

    That would be so dangerously low for him
    No it wouldn't be dangerous. Not very nice looking, but not dangerous at that point. Anything below that would be quite ugly though.

    126 is doable for Ali, but any lower, she's in anorexic territory,

    I'm sorry, but that is terribly insulting to anyone who is happening to read this that is 5'5 and under 126 pounds, but still within the healthy weight range.

    I'd love to know your opinion on models in general. lol. Seriously, it's amazing to come across reverse discrimination in here. Very interesting.

    Ok. Just an example. A famous beautiful athelete, Anna Kournakova. She's 5'8, and 123 pounds. That's too light to me, but she's not even CLOSE to unhealthy. In fact, she could be in the dictionary next to healthy. But, according to some people's opinions in here, she's gaunt, on a stretcher and anorexic. Just too funny.
    Last edited by spockwhat; 04-10-2008 at 09:05 PM.

  8. #8
    FORT Fanatic hikari's Avatar
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    Re: Finale predictions

    Spockwhat, I am sorry to have offended you so grieviously. My comments were in no way intended to be derogatory toward you or anyone on this board, whatever weight they happen to be. I was talking specifically about our contestants in regards to what I view as healthy weights for them. Not for elite tennis players or models. My whole point was that we need to consider individual body frames--not numbers on a chart or what other people of similar heights might weigh.

    With all due respect, I stand by my assertion that Ali and Mark were at, or even slightly below, healthy goal weights for them, regardless of the fact that they are not yet at the very slimmest margin of their ranges. Those ranges are just a guide, not a bible. Also I see a vast difference between someone like Anna Kournakova and any of our contestants. She 1. is from naturally slender stock and 2. has spent her entire life devoted to sport, and an extreme exercise regimen. If that has been her life since she was big enough to hold a racket, that in itself has served to shape her body and metabolism to, what on anyone else at that height woud be considered very light.
    Our contestants, on the other hand, have spent a significant period of their lives overweight--very overweight. With the exception of Ali, who was an athlete, they really don't have any experience being at what is a healthy goal weight for them. Ali does, and the weight she was at when she was swimming competitively is where she probably functions best. If that's 126 pounds, then, great, and I retract my 'anorexic' comment. But we also have to remember that these people have lost in some cases nearly half their body weight in only a few months. That is a real shock to the system. Normal dieters in the real world would need at least a year, probably two, to lose that much. Many dieters get so addicted to the 'high' of losing weight and the positive attention they receive that they drop too low; learning what is required for loss vs. a healthy maintenance is a big adjustment. For many formerly heavy people, it's scary to stop seeing the losses because the spectre of getting fat again looms large.

    For our contestants, this is exacerbated by the pressures of their new celebrity and the desire to wn this game. The weight losses expected have become more extreme each season. I visted the archives last night to see Season One after pictures. It was interesting to note that most of the women were all 8-10 pounds heavier than Ali was at last weigh-in (at similar heights).

    My opinion of the modeling industry is not very high. I'm kind of surprised that you would want to hold models up as ideals of acceptably healthy weight since we've lost several to anorexia in the last year alone.

    Even though you've singled me out to take issue with, a read of this board or the Biggest Loser message board will show that a great number of posters besides me think that Ali and Mark have surpassed their healthiest weights and are starting to look too thin. I never said she was on a stretcher--I was joking that if Roger got down to his lowest 'recommended' weight of 152 pounds at 6'3", that he might need to be carried in on one. I do think that Mark and Ali have gotten to such a low percentage of body fat that their faces are looking too thin. But that is my perception. If you perceive differently, you are certainly entitled to that opinion. Let's just wait until Tuesday and see . . .if Mark does get down to 146 pounds we can reconvene this discussion after we see how he looks at that weight.

  9. #9
    FORT Fogey
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    Re: Finale predictions

    It takes awhile for a body to catch up with weight loss and I think this is what some are seeing in Ali and Mark. If they maintain this weight, their faces will be very different in a few weeks time. Personally I think they both look good. When fat disappears from face one often looks gaunt, older or not as healthy. The fat made them look younger in the face. Their skin tone will improve as well.

    Kelly looks fabulous but just wait until more comes off her face and she will get the same response at first.

  10. #10
    chavy chaf chaf Asteroids Champion, Bejeweled 2 Champion, GalaGalaGa Champion, Add It Up Champion, Beat The Meter Champion, BejeweledŽ 2 Action Champion, Little Protectors Champion spockwhat's Avatar
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    Re: Finale predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by hikari
    My opinion of the modeling industry is not very high. I'm kind of surprised that you would want to hold models up as ideals of acceptably healthy weight since we've lost several to anorexia in the last year alone.
    My opinion of the modeling industry is not very high either. I just thought it would be interesting to know your opinions on them (and I thought your opinion would be funny since you think normal weight people are anorexic, then what would you think of models, who are really underweight, generally?) I'd be the last person who would think models are ideals.

    I think one of the problems is the discussion goes back and forth between "looks" and "unhealthy". Those don't necessarily go hand in hand and I'm not particularly concerned with looks in reference to the contestants. There have been a number of people in these discussions who have stated that losing more weight for Alli and Mark would be unhealthy. And I disagree. Maybe they won't look that great at that point, but to say they are unhealthy just isn't correct.
    These contestants have doctors following their every move. Their health has improved drastically over the last 5 months, and if the doctors indeed thought it was "dangerous" for them, I'm sure they would discourage further weight loss. It comes down to this: looks are a matter of opinion, and of course everyone is entitled to theirs! I agree that Mark is looking a little worse for wear. But health is about facts and I'm going to side with the medical health professionals on this one, rather than a few opinions of some people on a message board.
    Last edited by spockwhat; 04-11-2008 at 11:32 AM.

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