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Thread: Season 9 by the numbers...

  1. #11
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Here are this week's updates.

    First, remaining contestants:


    Next, the competition for the at-home prize:

  2. #12
    PWS
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Thanks, missy! Can you add back in the 50 and 55% columns you used to have? or do they get dropped when you sort by % lost size?

  3. #13
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    I can add them in, but when I do, I have to shrink the image size because of the FORT maximum, so I figured it was easier to read without those numbers. What I want to do is calculate the minimum healthy weight for each contestant by BMI and add that into the 50% and 55% table, and then what I might do for readability's sake is post the tables separately. My computer wasn't cooperating, though, so hopefully next week...

  4. #14
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Quote Originally Posted by Missyboxers;3868827;
    I can add them in, but when I do, I have to shrink the image size because of the FORT maximum, so I figured it was easier to read without those numbers. What I want to do is calculate the minimum healthy weight for each contestant by BMI and add that into the 50% and 55% table, and then what I might do for readability's sake is post the tables separately. My computer wasn't cooperating, though, so hopefully next week...
    That sounds great!!! Looking forward to reading it. Next season I should have more time, so then I"ll help....maybe with two seasons' data as a basis we can look back and see if we are any good at using this to predict the winner!

  5. #15
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    This is some of the math I was picking at.

    Hopefully it is big enough to see... file size restrictions are pretty tight!
    Attached Images Attached Images

  6. #16
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    For reference, they started filming this season back in September and finished up on the ranch on March 1, according to Twitter. They started filming season 8 on May 14 and finished on August 14, so 13 weeks or three months, which is about where we are now with several weeks left to go. Interestingly, last season through 11 weeks, I think the highest percentage of the remaining contestants was 29%-- Daris was leading the way with 31% when we hit week 11 this year. Obviously there's more time on the ranch, but there's also an extra month in total (May 14-December 8 vs ~September 15 to ~May 10ish... a very rough estimate but it is a month longer).

    In other words, I'm not going to do it just yet, but I may consider figuring out the numbers for a 60% loss. Otherwise, I think Daris, Ashley and maybe Michael probably have the best shot.

  7. #17
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Here is the update for the players still remaining on the ranch.



  8. #18
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    Just eyeballing the numbers, it's clear that for most people they could do a 60% weight loss although for most it would put them well into the healthy BMI range. Sunshine, though, would be way below that limit, and Sam definitely below that limit. Given the longer season I also think 60% is not out of the question, so I guess they can't win.
    In contrast at 55% Michael isn't even in the "normal" range yet, so he could clearly do 60%--even then he'd be just above the upper range. Koli and O'Neal could do 60% and be right in the middle of the BMI range, Daris at the low end, Ashley at the high end.
    For Koli's strategy though, he also needs to look at total pounds needed to be lost...there's a point when that matters. And how quickly they've been losing recently. It's clearly to his personal advantage to keep Sam and Sunshine, and probably O'Neal as well given his health issues and the large number of lbs. he needs to go. I just hope he keeps Daris and Michael until the makeover!

  9. #19
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    I'm going to guess that last week's episode took place sometime in late January/early February (filming ended March 1, seven contestants left), so that will leave three and a half months or so between where they are now and the finale, a little over halfway since we think they had eight months in total. I would think this favors the heavier guys. The problem is that BMI doesn't factor in body types or (so far as I can tell) gender. It's hard enough to envision a woman looking healthy at 5'10/132; I'd think that even at 150 lbs, Daris would look pretty sickly, so unfortunately I think it's a three man race between Michael, Ashley and Koli, which means that Michael and Ashley need to stay out of the bottom two.

  10. #20
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    Re: Season 9 by the numbers...

    BMI is a difficult thing to judge. My boyfriend, for example, is 6'1, and 100% lean muscle. He's not a body builder type or anything gross, though he does have well defined muscles. You'd be hard pressed to find any fat to pinch on him anywhere. The point is - when he looks at a BMI chart he is concidered the top end of overweight!!!

    I ususally try and compare the contestants to TBL Couples 2 season because it was approximately the same length. Mike (who came in second) is very similar to Daris in his height, start weight, and he finished the show at 180lbs. He also looked skinny! I can't imagine him losing another 30lbs, so I can't see Daris getting that low either. Maybe he could have lost another 10-15.

    The other thing to concider is work ethic. Ashley, Koli and Michael certainly seem to have the potential to win it all, but Koli is the only one I can see working hard enough to get there.

    If those three don't find a higher gear, I still think Daris has such a head start in % lost that he'll be hard to catch.

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