+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 48

Thread: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

  1. #1
    PWS
    PWS is offline
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    15,262

    Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    Warning--while not a spoiler in the traditional sense these might take some of the fun out of the show....

    Hi all—I’m trying to “game” the statistics to predict who the likely winners are, given past seasons. We know from recent seasons that if you aren’t OVER 50% weight loss you won’t win, and recently a close to 55% weight loss has really been needed. Since I think the most anyone has lost in a season is 207 lbs. (Mike, last season; Kristin lost the most for a woman, 167) someone like Shay, who would need to lose over 230 lbs. to hit even 50% is automatically not The Biggest Loser. At the other extreme, a 5’4” woman who started at 200 lbs. would be dangerously underweight if she lost 100 lbs. (just 50%) of her weight, so there’s a definite window in there balancing starting weight, height, etc., into which the winner can fall.

    Below I’ve listed the contestants’ heights, starting weights, what the target weight for a 50% loss and a 55% loss would be, and how many lbs. a 55% loss totals. I started with the tallest contestants and went down from there. Take a look and see what you think (also correct any typos…my eyes are falling out transferring from Excel to Word!). My next post I’ll sort by who I think WON’T make it because they’d have to lose too much, and who I think actually has a chance. Feel free to argue!

    Rudy 6’4”, 442, 50% goal=221, 55% goal=198.9, lbs. to 55%=243.1

    Mo 6’ 2”, 355, 50% goal=177.5, 55% goal=159.75, lbs. to 55%=195.3

    Sean 6’2”, 444, 50% goal=222, 55% goal=199.8, lbs. to 55%=244.2

    Antoine 6’, 367, 50% goal=183.5, 55% goal=165.15, lbs. to 55%=201.9

    Julio 6’, 407, 50% goal=203.5, 55% goal=183.15, lbs. to 55%=223.85

    Allen 5’ 11”, 325, 50% goal=162.5, 55% goal=146.25, lbs. to 55%=178.75

    Danny 5’ 11”, 430, 50% goal=215, 55% goal=193.5, lbs. to 55%=236.5

    Alexandra 5’8”, 309, 50% goal=154.5, 55% goal=139.05, lbs. to 55%=169.95

    Daniel 5’ 8”, 312, 50% goal=156, 55% goal=140.4, lbs. to 55% =171.6

    Shay 5’ 8”, 476, 50% goal= 238, 55% goal=214.2, lbs. to 55% =261.2

    Liz 5’7”, 267, 50% goal=133.5, 55% goal=120.15, lbs. to 55%=146.85

    Rebecca 5’6”, 279, 50% goal=139.5, 55% goal=125.55, lbs. to 55%=153.45

    Amanda 5’ 6”, 250, 50% goal=125, 55% goal=112.5, lbs. to 55%=137.5

    Dina 5’5”, 253, 50% goal=126.5, 55% goal=113.85, lbs. to 55%=139.15

    Abby 5’ 4”, 247, 50% goal=123.5, 55% goal=111.15, lbs. to 55%=135.85

    Tracey 5’2”, ???, 50% goal=? , 55% goal=? , lbs. to 55%=?

  2. #2
    PWS
    PWS is offline
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    15,262

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    These folks would all have to lose a lot more than Mike did last season to get close to 55%. Always possible of course, but I doubt it will happen.

    Rudy 6’4”, 442, 50% goal=221, 55% goal=198.9, lbs. to 55%=243.1

    Sean 6’2”, 444, 50% goal=222, 55% goal=199.8, lbs. to 55%=244.2

    Danny 5’ 11”, 430, 50% goal=215, 55% goal=193.5, lbs. to 55%=236.5

    Shay 5’ 8”, 476, 50% goal= 238, 55% goal=214.2, lbs. to 55% =261.2

    Julio 6’, 407, 50% goal=203.5, 55% goal=183.15, lbs. to 55%=223.85

    These people below are still in it from that point of view, but note how thin some of them will be if they approach a 55% weight loss--e.g. Mo at 6'2" weighing under 160? Possible but a little scary.

    Mo 6’ 2”, 355, 50% goal=177.5, 55% goal=159.75, lbs. to 55%=195.3

    Antoine 6’, 367, 50% goal=183.5, 55% goal=165.15, lbs. to 55%=201.9

    Allen 5’ 11”, 325, 50% goal=162.5, 55% goal=146.25, lbs. to 55%=178.75

    Alexandra 5’8”, 309, 50% goal=154.5, 55% goal=139.05, lbs. to 55%=169.95

    Daniel 5’ 8”, 312, 50% goal=156, 55% goal=140.4, lbs. to 55% =171.6

    Liz 5’7”, 267, 50% goal=133.5, 55% goal=120.15, lbs. to 55%=146.85

    Rebecca 5’6”, 279, 50% goal=139.5, 55% goal=125.55, lbs. to 55%=153.45

    Amanda 5’ 6”, 250, 50% goal=125, 55% goal=112.5, lbs. to 55%=137.5

    Dina 5’5”, 253, 50% goal=126.5, 55% goal=113.85, lbs. to 55%=139.15

    Abby 5’ 4”, 247, 50% goal=123.5, 55% goal=111.15, lbs. to 55%=135.85

    Tracey 5’2”, ???, 50% goal=? , 55% goal=? , lbs. to 55%=?

  3. #3
    PWS
    PWS is offline
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    15,262

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    Sorry for the multiple posts...but probably easier to read this way anyway...

    So, how thin is too thin? The charts I could find define it as dependent on build...but who knows what the bone build of any of these people is? So, here's the range of weights for the heights of our contestants:

    Men:
    6’4” 162-207
    6’2” 155-197
    6’ 149-188
    5’11” 146-184
    5’8” 140-172

    Women:
    5’8” 126-167
    5’7” 123-163
    5’6” 120-159
    5’5” 117-155
    5’4” 114-151
    5’2” 108-143

    Below I've pulled out those who would be "too thin" at 55%...but I remind you that last year's winner, Helen, was supposedly 5'6" and 117 at the finale, so "too thin" by this standard. So being "too thin" isn't really impossible for the win, just less likely. Any of the "too thin" people could probably make it, except maybe Amanda.

    Men who are "too thin" at a 55% weight loss:
    Borderline:

    Allen 5’ 11”, 325, 50% goal=162.5, 55% goal=146.25, lbs. to 55%=178.75

    Daniel 5’ 8”, 312, 50% goal=156, 55% goal=140.4, lbs. to 55% =171.6

    Too thin women:

    Liz 5’7”, 267, 50% goal=133.5, 55% goal=120.15, lbs. to 55%=146.85 (have to be about 3 lbs. under)

    Amanda 5’ 6”, 250, 50% goal=125, 55% goal=112.5, lbs. to 55%=137.5 (have to be 7.5 lbs. under)

    Dina 5’5”, 253, 50% goal=126.5, 55% goal=113.85, lbs. to 55%=139.15 (have to about 3 lbs. under)

    Abby 5’ 4”, 247, 50% goal=123.5, 55% goal=111.15, lbs. to 55%=135.85 (have to be about 3 lbs. under)

    Which leaves us with the following people who are, if they can get to the 55% level, able to make the weight w/o either losing more than anyone has before, OR becoming so thin it is a huge strain at their height. Tracey, of course, is still in because we don't know her starting weight...hopefully we can fill her in next week. She's our smallest person.

    Mo 6’ 2”, 355, 50% goal=177.5, 55% goal=159.75, lbs. to 55%=195.3 (low end of height/age range)

    Antoine 6’, 367, 50% goal=183.5, 55% goal=165.15, lbs. to 55%=201.9 (right in middle of range)

    Alexandra 5’8”, 309, 50% goal=154.5, 55% goal=139.05, lbs. to 55%=169.95 (right in middle of range)

    Rebecca 5’6”, 279, 50% goal=139.5, 55% goal=125.55, lbs. to 55%=153.45 (low end of range)

    Tracey 5’2”, ???, 50% goal=? , 55% goal=? , lbs. to 55%=?

    We'll see how this plays out over the next few weeks. Obviously things like age and injuries are going to have a major impact. PWS
    Last edited by PWS; 09-19-2009 at 06:01 PM.

  4. #4
    FORT Fanatic vanillalatte's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Fargo ND
    Posts
    553

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    Great analysis, PWS! Wow, hats off to you for taking the time to do this!

    So, I have to say that I am absolutely in agreement with you about this. In fact, when they first weighed Shay, my first thoughts were right along the lines of what you just did here. I was thinking about how if she got down to what would be considered a normal weight for her height, build and age, she would absolutely be the winner. But how do you lose that much weight in the time they have? And even at 55%, she still has another 50 pounds to go before she's within normal ranges.

    And then there are others who come in with a decided disadvantage as you point out with Daniel, Allen and several of the women. They can't possibly lose enough to win, can they? On the other hand, we've seen some of the finalists lose more than they should. A few have come back to the final weigh in and I've thought that they actually look too thin, but it's all in the interest of the game. We've seen photos online of a few of them six months or a year later where they've maintained their weight loss, but maybe put back a few pounds just to be in a more healthy and comfortable range.

    I'll be interested to see how your numbers hold up over the season. I'll have to add the thread to my favorites so I can come back and check at the end!

  5. #5
    PWS
    PWS is offline
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    15,262

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    Thanks, vanillalatte---I started thinking of it as I was falling asleep the other night and then figured I wouldn't sleep well again until I tried it! Couldn't have done it without the great recap with all the #s though--I couldn't find them anywhere else.
    Of course all that is predicated on the idea that everyone works as hard as they can--as we well know that doesn't always happen!

  6. #6
    FORT Fanatic vanillalatte's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Fargo ND
    Posts
    553

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    Quote Originally Posted by PWS;3706538;
    Of course all that is predicated on the idea that everyone works as hard as they can--as we well know that doesn't always happen!
    Oh, absolutely! But your numbers simply show that some come in with distinct advantages and disadvantages. I guess we just have to wait and see now

  7. #7
    FORT Fogey Missyboxers's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    NYC
    Age
    31
    Posts
    4,038

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    PWS, big THANK YOU for kicking the percentages game off so early this year! I was on a plane on Tuesday night, and I'm finally starting to catch up on all of the TV I missed.

  8. #8
    PWS
    PWS is offline
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    15,262

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    You're welcome... it's kind of fun to do. More fun than working on the weekend which I probably should have been doing more of!

  9. #9
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Ithaca, NY
    Posts
    1,369

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    I thought I read somewhere that the timing of this season was longer than previous years? So the contestants have longer to lose the weight? I thought this made sense when seeing Alexandra's after clip last week...she's lost more than the usual first week off folks...in my eyes, but maybe it was seeing what I expected to?

  10. #10
    PWS
    PWS is offline
    FORT Fogey
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    15,262

    Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8

    Well, it would make sense for them to have a longer at home stretch for this season given the # of 400 lb. people they have. If you want to have that WOW experience at the finale then you've got to give them another month or two at least.... If anyone knows, let us know.

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts

SEO by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.