Playing with the numbers

[PWS]

Hi all--I'm going to try to paste an Excel file in here with some base info. The contestants are organized by height (except for the one for which there IS no height!). I was going to move the "losers" to a separate table, but they may be coming back, so for now...
The ones in italics had bariatric surgery of some kind.
Range means the "normal range" for people of that sex/height. Start is the starting weight. 50% weight is the weight they need to reach to have lost 50% of their body weight, and 50% lbs. is how many lbs. they need to lose to get to that weight. 55% weight is the weight they would be if they lost 55% of the starting weight, while 55% lbs. is the # of lbs. they need to lose to get to that weight.
You can see that for some people to reach a 50% loss (which these days is the minimum for winning it seems) they'd have to be on the low side for their height, as far as recommended weight goes, while others will not even be down to the high side of their recommended weight at a 50% loss. When it gets near 55% loss, which has been sometimes needed to win, some contestants would find that weight really hard to reach or maintain.
You can also see we lost a lot of women already in these competitions.... And if someone can tell me the secret to putting in a real excel file I"d be glad to do that... it would be a LOT clearer! I know some people have done it, but when I try to attach it nothing happens.

Name Surgery Height Normal range Starting weight 50% goal lbs. to lose to 50% 55% goal lbs. to lose to 55%
Aaron none 6'4" 162-207 468 234 234 210.6 257.4
Mark none 6'3" 158-202 421 210.5 210.5 189.45 231.55
Adam none 6'2" 155-197 402 201 201 180.9 221.1
Patrick none 6'2" 155-197 400 200 200 180 220
Fredo none 6'0" 149-188 367 183.5 183.5 165.15 201.85
Brendan none 6'0" 149-188 362 181 181 162.9 199.1
Montina lap band 5'10" 132-173 287 143.5 143.5 129.15 157.85
Corey none 5'9" 142-176 391 195.5 195.5 175.95 215.05
Rick gas.byp. 5'9" 142-176 350 175 175 157.5 192.5
Anna none 5'9" 124-170 330 165 165 148.5 181.5
Sandy none 5'9" 124-170 259 129.5 129.5 116.55 142.45
Jesse none 5'8" 140-172 369 184.5 184.5 166.05 202.95
Sophia none 5'7" 123-163 272 136 136 122.4 149.6
Tina none 5'7" 123-163 263 131.5 131.5 118.35 144.65
Jessica lap band 5'7" 123-163 242 121 121 108.9 133.1
Ada none 5'6" 120-159 258 129 129 116.1 141.9
Allie VBG 5'5" 117-155 322 161 161 144.9 177.1
Elizabeth none 5'4" 114-151 244 122 122 109.8 134.2
Shanna none 5'5" 117-155 242 121 121 108.9 133.1
Burgandy lap band 5'4" 114-151 231 115.5 115.5 103.95 127.05
Lisa none ? 288 144 144 129.6 158.4

[PWS]

Wow... ok that is even messier than I thought and italics, etc. disappeared in the transfer... well, will see if I can figure out another way to post it...maybe missyboxers will have a better version. I've tried a jpeg but that is too many dohickeys for the system to handle.

[Missyboxers]

[Bearcata]

What's VBG??

I am glad that BL has contestants that have had gastric bypass or lapband surgery. From what I understand the surgeries are tools and I know in our local hospital that you must attend nutrition and exercise classes afterward to help enforce the new eating patterns that the surgeries make you conform to. I do wonder what the failure rate is for these types of surgeries? The way they are advertised in magazines etc... it sounds like a magic quick fix and it is not you have to make a permanent lifestyle change to see permanent results.

I wonder if anyone has done a study on how addictive HFCS (high frucotose corn syrup) is? From what I understand that there is something in the makeup of HFCS that does not kick satiety (I'm full) feeling in a person and so people just keep eating and eating. HFCS is in everything.

When I was driving to work last week I heard on the radio that the Corn Growers of America are starting a campaign to have the name of HFCS changed to corn syrup because HFCS has just a "bad name" and the corn growers feel it is not justified.

[PWS]

Thanks, Missyboxers! What do you do to make a table FORT will accept?

[Missyboxers]

I copied it into Paint (just the grid that I wanted to upload, not the whole sheet), saved as a JPEG, checked to make sure it fit within the size restrictions (600 x 600 pixels), uploaded it into a photo album in my FORT user profile, and put the image in a post (I was using Google Chrome, but Firefox works as well-- right-click on the image in the album and you should be able to Copy Image Location/URL).

[Missyboxers]

Also-- from the spoilers thread, it was noted that they got to the BL campus around June 1, and they were going around the country to film last week's episode in May. I'm going to assume that this first weigh in will be their benchmark for this week's episode, which means that the contestants potentially had time to start trying to lose weight before they actually hit the ranch.

I just took a peek at the calendar. I'm assuming the finale is Tuesday, December 14, so about six and a half to seven months. I'm guessing it takes closer to 50% to win this one, maybe a little over.

PWS, where did you get your numbers for BMI out of curiosity? Looking at your numbers, I think Jessica, Sandy, Burgandy (that spelling will drive me and spellcheck nuts this season) have no shot and chances aren't good for Elizabeth and Shanna either.

[PWS]

What's VBG??

.

I see Bearcata found this, but for others who may wonder, see the thread called The surgical quarter, which has definitions of the kinds of operations they've had (the ones who mentioned them in their bios).

[PWS]

So above we have the table of how much weight they need to lose to get to the 50% (and 55%) mark, with past experience indicating that anyone who doesn't get to the 50% mark has no chance as either the show winner or the at home winner. This week I looked at how much weight each had lost as a percentage of what they needed to lose to get to their personal 50% mark, and there were some BIG differences. Maybe no giant surprises as to who is "ahead", but a different way of looking at the numbers.
In order, rounded to the nearest whole percentage point…(if that yields the same % as another contestant they are in order of the small differences between their scores):

Rick (gastric bypass) lost 21% of the total he needs to lose to hit 50% of his original weight—MORE than 1/5 of the total!
Mark lost 19% of what he needs to lose
Brendan lost 17%
Adam lost 17%
Jesse lost 16%
Fredo lost 15%
Ada lost 14%
Aaron lost 13%
Tina lost 12%
Lisa lost 11%
Patrick lost 11%
Allie lost 10% (she has also lost more than 37% of what she needs to lose to reach 50%, since leaving the ranch...a little over 1/3 of the way there)
Burgandy lost 10%
Sophia lost 10%
Jessica lost 10%
Elizabeth lost 10%

Obviously no one can keep that up---plus the first "week" was really two weeks since the first weigh in---but still, some people are twice as far along the path as others.... and if the women other than maybe Ada don't pick it up they have NO chance.
AND, while the guys may have been thinking that Allie was more of a threat than Tina, this just makes it even clearer that they may have been wrong... Not that either is much of a threat, yet.

[mandmmom2]

Wow! I never thought to look at it in this way, PWS. So, the men may take it this season UNLESS something drastic happens. I sure hope Jillian can push it out of the women!!!