Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Missyboxers;3711447;
Per Wikipedia, the last season of BL in 2008 ended the 16th which makes sense because it was a Tuesday. So the 15th makes perfect sense. I bet that will be a popular "Christmas episode" week. The 8th is pretty early.
Oh, and irrelevant to this season but good to know anyway, BL9 starts taping next week, per Jillian's twitter feed. I think next season will probably be shorter than this past spring's because I assume the show will be off for two weeks for the Olympics.
Oops, my bad I was looking at my 2007 calendar. It had the smaller Jan 2008 month up in the corner.
But I can see from my 2007 and 2008 calendar that the last 2 weeks of December are BL free. I find it blatantly unfair that the networks do not show new episodes during the holidays, I for one would watch. The Holidays with Relatives vs new TV episodes. mmm...that is an easy choice.
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by PWS;3711540;
So all of that means this season is much different in length than last's right? So that could definitely affect the total poundage it will be possible to lose. Some people who might not have had a shot will now have one, but others will have hit the maximum and more of what it is safe to lose. Well, either way, you load the dice for and against some.
Since voting affects who can be TBL, we can't use the #s to predict the winner at this point, but we can say that certain people have a much better chance of being either the TBL or the at home winner.
Last season, Biggest Loser: Couples 2 was the longest at 17 weeks, plus the semi finale plus the finale. The Biggest Loser: Couples 2 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
vs this season of Biggest Loser: Second Chances The Biggest Loser: Second Chances - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia which will be 12 weeks long plus the finale.
The links provided have beautiful graphs of all the stats. What we (the viewers) really don't know at this point (or I quess we do if I recall someone posted about it earlier) how much time passes between episode 12 and the finale for the contestants. Previously, the total time alloted for each season is about 6 months, thereby giving the contestants sent home a good chance to lose weight vs being on the ranch.
Per Missyboxers post #14 it should be about
of weight loss time for the contestants.
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Yes, I wish we knew for last season how long the contestants had after they finished up on the ranch. Maybe they had less time at home and more time at the ranch? But even then, they may not lose as much.
And Bearcata, I couldn't agree more about new tv over the holidays-- a couple Thanksgivings ago, I remember my cousin and I literally sprinting from dessert to watch Grey's Anatomy.
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
We don't ever know precisely the amount of time between the contestants leaving the ranch and the finale, but we do have a pretty good idea of the total time from the first day of shooting to the finale. I have seen the date that shooting started for TBL 7, but I can't remember the exact date. I do remember that it was late September and the finale was middle of May, so a total time span of about 8 months. TBL 8 started shooting shortly after the live finale of TBL 7. I don't know what day the finale for TBL 8 is scheduled, but it is most likely the middle of December, so we are looking at 7 months for these contestants. My guess is that they will not lose as much as last season's contestants and that the winner will be closer to the 50% mark.
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Momat40, I think you're right. We've got a pretty solid timeline, including a breakdown of time spent at home vs on the ranch (I've also got the dates of the trainers' surprise visits-- and if anyone is interested in some Bachelor-style sleuthing, let me know), but without an equally good one from years past, it's a little harder to make comparisons. Even so, I think this group will be closer to 55%.
As for the finale, I'm now 100% convinced that it will be on
Do we need to keep spoiler-ing out timeline-related stuff? Are people in here generally ok with knowing the timeline? I don't want to spoil it for anyone who really doesn't want to know, but if people don't think that timeline is too spoilery...
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Missyboxers;3713202;
Momat40, I think you're right. We've got a pretty solid timeline, including a breakdown of time spent at home vs on the ranch (I've also got the dates of the trainers' surprise visits-- and if anyone is interested in some Bachelor-style sleuthing, let me know), but without an equally good one from years past, it's a little harder to make comparisons. Even so, I think this group will be closer to 55%.
As for the finale, I'm now 100% convinced that it will be on
Do we need to keep spoiler-ing out timeline-related stuff? Are people in here generally ok with knowing the timeline? I don't want to spoil it for anyone who really doesn't want to know, but if people don't think that timeline is too spoilery...
I don't see why knowing how long the season runs is a real spoiler...anyone disagree? Let's give it 24 hours for responses. If anyone reading this thread doesn't want to know how long the season is speak now or forever hold your peace! Don't be shy--we don[t mind hiding the info, but it is a bit of a pain to do if no one cares.
I would think people reading this thread are likely to be ok with yet another number, but it is one that will affect whether the winner will need 50% or 55%, or more, and as we saw in the initial table, that means certain people will or won't be able to win. So indirectly a spoiler. But since so much depends on whether you make F3 it certainly doesn't give away the winner, at least not at this point.
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
While I like Daniel and am glad to see him back on the show to complete his journey, the 6 or 7 months this show is in production is just not enough time for the 400 pounders to lose all the weight they need to lose to get to a normal weight. Daniel at 5'8" needs to get down under 200 lbs and lose almost 300lbs, which is an incredible feat for anybody. One thing I do not want to see is Season 9 being Second Chances for the Second Chancers. Shay being so heavy will still be morbidly obese a the final weight in. She also needs some major therapy.
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Yeah, I'm glad Daniel got a second chance because he got stuck dragging a lousy partner to get on the ranch in the first place. But I don't need to see retreads, a la the Bachelor. No thank you.
I have the percentages lost to date, but I'm a little tired.. I'll post 'em tomorrow night. Abby's ahead, then Rudy, then Rebecca.
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bearcata;3714642;
While I like Daniel and am glad to see him back on the show to complete his journey, the 6 or 7 months this show is in production is just not enough time for the 400 pounders to lose all the weight they need to lose to get to a normal weight. Daniel at 5'8" needs to get down under 200 lbs and lose almost 300lbs, which is an incredible feat for anybody. One thing I do not want to see is Season 9 being Second Chances for the Second Chancers. Shay being so heavy will still be morbidly obese a the final weight in. She also needs some major therapy.
Right, but remember this season he's starting from just over 300 lbs. so he has a decent shot at getting under 200. At some point all those pounds of extra skin are actually going to be a serious issue for him weight wise (and also chaffing wise for exercise).
Re: Playing with the numbers TBL 8
Rudy 6’4”, 442, 50% goal=221, 55% goal=198.9, lbs. to 55%=243.1 currently: 388 (12.217%)
Mo 6’ 2”, 355, 50% goal=177.5, 55% goal=159.75, lbs. to 55%=195.3 currently: 326 (8.169%)
Julio 6’, 407, 50% goal=203.5, 55% goal=183.15, lbs. to 55%=223.85 currently: 368 (9.582%)
Allen 5’ 11”, 325, 50% goal=162.5, 55% goal=146.25, lbs. to 55%=178.75 currently: 292 (10.154%)
Danny 5’ 11”, 430, 50% goal=215, 55% goal=193.5, lbs. to 55%=236.5 currently: 390 (9.302%)
Daniel 5’ 8”, 312, 50% goal=156, 55% goal=140.4, lbs. to 55% =171.6 currently: 287 (8.013%)
Shay 5’ 8”, 476, 50% goal= 238, 55% goal=214.2, lbs. to 55% =261.2 currently: 437 (8.193%)
Liz 5’7”, 267, 50% goal=133.5, 55% goal=120.15, lbs. to 55%=146.85 currently: 243 (8.989%)
Rebecca 5’6”, 279, 50% goal=139.5, 55% goal=125.55, lbs. to 55%=153.45 currently: 248 (11.111%)
Amanda 5’ 6”, 250, 50% goal=125, 55% goal=112.5, lbs. to 55%=137.5 currently: 235 (6.000%)
Dina 5’5”, 253, 50% goal=126.5, 55% goal=113.85, lbs. to 55%=139.15 currently: 234 (7.510%)
Abby 5’ 4”, 247, 50% goal=123.5, 55% goal=111.15, lbs. to 55%=135.85 currently: 216 (12.551%)
Tracey 5’2”, 238, 50% goal=119 , 55% goal=107.1 , lbs. to 55%=130.9 currently: 217 (8.824%)
I took the people who aren't still on the ranch out. If they come back, I can always add them back in.