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Thread: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

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    Nik
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    F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Unless Sharon can pull off a POV win, I think the boys will evict her and easily beat Sheila in the Final HOH comp, so the F2 will be Adam and Ryan which will be just as dull as Season 5 with Drew and Cowboy.

    Some stats:

    Interestingly, in 7 years of this game (first season was audience vote control so it doesn't count) the F4 HOH winner failed to make it to the F2 FOUR times (Monica in Season 2; Robert in Season 4; Janelle in Season 6; Zach in Season 8 ) and if I were Natalie, I would note that those are all even numbers (lol) so Ryan is likely to make it to F2 in this year (Season 9, an odd number).

    No but seriously, the odds are slightly against Ryan in the sense that the F4 HOH has made it to F2 only 3 out of 7 times in the past.

    But that's just looking at the cold numbers, not the dynamics involved. A closer inspection suggests that things are looking VERY good for Ryan...

    See, ALL three F4 HOH winners who DID make it to the finals, did so with an alliance partner in the F3 (Danielle had Jason in Season 3; Drew had Cowboy in Season 5; Boogie arguably had Erika in Season 7) and Ryan certainly seems to "have" Adam.

    Also, of the F4 HOH winners who failed to make it to the finals, NONE of them had a real alliance partner in the F3 (Will and Nicole were against Monica in Season 2; Jun and Allison were very much against Robert in Season 4; Maggie and Ivette were very much against Janelle in Season 6; the Donatos were very much against Zach in Season 8. )

    Therefore?

    1) It's important get to F3 with an ally. NO ONE has made it to F2 in the history of BB without an ally or a pseudo ally (Will in Season 2; Erika in Season 7) in the F3. The idea that a lone person can just "win" his/her way to the end has yet to happen -- it has NEVER been a successful strategy on BB. Even Janelle -- biggest competition beast of all time -- failed to make it to the F2 in both Season 6 and Season 7.

    2) Ryan will probably get to F2 and win the whole thing. I hope Sharon and Sheila can buck the trend (with Sharon winning POV and evicting Adam; in which case the trend will be on their side since the two girls will arguably be an alliance of 2 against Ryan) but I'm predicting Ryan to go the way of Drew and win BB9. Ryan or Adam are most likely to win the Final POV (and evict Sharon) and Ryan is pretty much on good terms with everyone in the jury house.

    Note that the three F4 HOH winners who made it to F2 ALL ended up winning the big prize. If Ryan gets to the F2, I predict that statistic will go four for four.

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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nik;2926949;
    Ryan is pretty much on good terms with everyone in the jury house.
    Wow!! Excellent recap and analysis Nik. I just wanted to comment on the portion quoted. James said to Julie that he pretty much detested Ryan and Nat. And, I am pretty sure both Chelsia and Joshuah will follow James like the little sheep that they are and do whatever James tells them too (and, likewise Sharon will do whatever Joshuah tells her to do if she is not F2).

    That's the four necessary votes against Ryan right there, IMO.

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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Just Sayin;2927060;
    Wow!! Excellent recap and analysis Nik. I just wanted to comment on the portion quoted. James said to Julie that he pretty much detested Ryan and Nat. And, I am pretty sure both Chelsia and Joshuah will follow James like the little sheep that they are and do whatever James tells them too (and, likewise Sharon will do whatever Joshuah tells her to do if she is not F2).

    That's the four necessary votes against Ryan right there, IMO.
    I agree JS. That's why he should have kept Nattie because she's probably the only person he could have beat in the F2. Oh well...
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    Nik
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Just Sayin;2927060;
    Wow!! Excellent recap and analysis Nik. I just wanted to comment on the portion quoted. James said to Julie that he pretty much detested Ryan and Nat. And, I am pretty sure both Chelsia and Joshuah will follow James like the little sheep that they are and do whatever James tells them too (and, likewise Sharon will do whatever Joshuah tells her to do if she is not F2).

    That's the four necessary votes against Ryan right there, IMO.
    Yeah but everyone detested Boogie and Dick and they both won. I'm just saying , when it's Guy vs. Girl on BB the guy ALWAYS wins. (Men are forgiven for being sneaky, lying sons of bitches because it's just "strategy". But when a woman is "bad", she must be punished. Dani learned that the hard way in Season 3 -- just one year after DR. EVIL won too!) The girls who have won on BB (Lisa, Jun, Maggie), did so by sitting with ANOTHER girl in the F2 -- one who was seen as (you got it) more "evil."

    If Sheila and Sharon want to win, they need to take each other to the finals. Ryan will win if he is against Sheila for sure, and maybe even against Sharon. If it's Ryan vs. Adam, I think Adam wins. Actually, if it's Adam vs. ANYONE, I think Adam wins.

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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nik;2927941;
    Yeah but everyone detested Boogie and Dick and they both won. I'm just saying , when it's Guy vs. Girl on BB the guy ALWAYS wins. (Men are forgiven for being sneaky, lying sons of bitches because it's just "strategy". But when a woman is "bad", she must be punished. Dani learned that the hard way in Season 3 -- just one year after DR. EVIL won too!) The girls who have won on BB (Lisa, Jun, Maggie), did so by sitting with ANOTHER girl in the F2 -- one who was seen as (you got it) more "evil."

    If Sheila and Sharon want to win, they need to take each other to the finals. Ryan will win if he is against Sheila for sure, and maybe even against Sharon. If it's Ryan vs. Adam, I think Adam wins. Actually, if it's Adam vs. ANYONE, I think Adam wins.
    I don't at all think it is a "gotta punish the evil woman" thing at all.

    Boogie's season was an all-star season, so the voters had a little more respect for gameplay... something Erica had absolutely none of. He also had a very influential Dr. Will campaigning hard for him in the jury house.

    Dick and Dani were both hated pretty bad by the voters, but Dick won AC and had Eric working hard for him in the sequester house. By winning AC, Dick also locked up Jessica's vote as well, and the jury house last season were not very capable of thinking for themselves, so they were easily persuaded.

    That is also true of this year's jury. Chelsia and Joshuah will likely vote however Master James tells them too, and he hates Ryan the most out of all of the remaining houseguests. I think if Adam is on the jury, he will have some influence over Matt, and possibly Nat.

    I agree that Adam will win over all of remaining houseguests, with Ryan being his easiest triumph. I think Ryan would lose to all three of the remaining houseguests, and the toss-up is Sharon v. Sheila. Ryan would be the deciding vote in that finale, and I fear he would vote for Sharon.

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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Nik, thank you, and I do think you've got a point on the gender dynamics. In this season the women talked about being together but mainly they were aligned with at least one of the guys. On the votes, there's no doubt that the men have the edge, even though the situations are different each time.

    That said I'm pulling for Adam first, and then Ryan. I like their game playing and personalities better than the Sharon and Sheila's. Sharon throws comps and Sheila doesn't even win and is just plain mean and bitter. I wanted Nat to stay, and was sadly disappointed when Janelle lost both times.

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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by andee;2929118;
    Nik, thank you, and I do think you've got a point on the gender dynamics. In this season the women talked about being together but mainly they were aligned with at least one of the guys. On the votes, there's no doubt that the men have the edge, even though the situations are different each time.

    That said I'm pulling for Adam first, and then Ryan. I like their game playing and personalities better than the Sharon and Sheila's. Sharon throws comps and Sheila doesn't even win and is just plain mean and bitter. I wanted Nat to stay, and was sadly disappointed when Janelle lost both times.
    (BIG SIGH...) Me too, Andee. Diehard Jedi Janie fan here and I became a Nat fan after the other labeled "annoying bitch" Amanda was tossed out.

    My take on why these 4:
    Ryan --half played a decent game, half because of Nat "taking care of her boy".

    Adam--1/3 played a decent game, 1/3 because of Nat, and 1/3 just backed into it.

    Sheila--I liked her more than most people (of course until she screwed Nat lol) but her game was non existent til the very recent past. And I certainly don't appreciate the nonstop verbal bashing of Nat this past week (especially right after Nat gave her the HOH...if she mentions "winning" HOH one more time I will puke). But, she's the one I'd like to see have the money most.

    Sharon--I can't stand her and would hate to see her win. The ultimate floater runt, and astutely labeled a mole...she automatically becames persona non grata for "loving Josh" and thinking that nasty, obnoxious, toxic boor was a sweet entertaining guy.

    The boys need to toss the mole now...and THEN we'll see just how long Sheila can REALLY "endure. If Ryan and Adam are F2...it's a tossup, imo.

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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Honestly Sharon needs a POV win otherwise she is gone and Sheila will be sitting duck for both the boys and it'll be an all-boys final. YAY!! *insert sarcasm here*

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    Nik
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Well it looks like Sharon is toast. If I were her, I would pull on Erika and work on Ryan over and over and over to convince him that Adam and Sheila have pulled a fast one, convincing everyone that they hate each other when they really have a F2 deal. Then I'd convince him that if he uses the veto on me, I'd vote out Sheila. And then of course I'd just vote out Adam.

    Anyway, Ryan winning POV marks the first time in BB history -- since the veto was implemented in its current form (so basically from BB4 to BB9) -- that the F4 HOH winner has also won the F4 POV. Only one time has the person the F4 HOH did NOT put on the block won the F4 POV (Cowboy BB5). Every other time, the F4 POV has been won by an initial nominee, who then took themselves off the block (Allison, Ivette, Janelle, Dani).

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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Ryan wants to take Sharon and Adam to the final three; Adam to the final two. He's losing faith in Adam. But he's most likely keeping his nominations the same and having Adam vote out Sheila. Unless Sharon fights all the odds and wins the final HoH then the final two will be Adam and Ryan. Here are the jury votes.

    James - Adam (He hates Ryan.)
    Chelsia - Adam (She also hates Ryan and would do what James told her to do.)
    Sharon - Adam (He's been protected her all game. She has no connection to Ryan.)
    Joshuah - Adam (He had an alliance with Ryan that Ryan went against. He'd also go with his group.)
    Sheila - Ryan (She had an alliance with Adam. She liked Ryan. Adam votes her out so she has a vendetta.)
    Matt - Ryan (He was friends with both guys in the house. His vote might be a coin toss.)
    Natalie - Ryan (She liked both boys but Adam provided her with more frustration.)

    Honestly? I wouldn't be surprised if Matt and Natalie voted the other way and made it 6-1. Either way that's at least 4 for Adam so he wins. The important thing is that Ryan doesn't know this and he honestly thinks at this point he'd beat Adam in the finals. He wants to be in the final three with Adam and Sharon because he thinks (and rightfully so) either would take him to the finals. He doesn't trust Sheila. So at this point Ryan seems to be a final 2 lock although his chances of actually winning it all are slim to none.
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