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Thread: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

  1. #41
    what are you watching? iguanachocolate's Avatar
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    I predict Ryan and Adam final 2
    A good book should leave you... slightly exhausted at the end. You live several lives while reading it. ~William Styron, interview, Writers at Work, 1958

  2. #42
    Nik
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    I have to say, as much as I don't personally like Ryan or Adam, they both played a pretty strong game and were less vile than James, Josh, and Chelsia and less annoying than Amanda, Alison, Jen, Parker and Natalie. In fact, I pretty much respected everyone's gameplay at the end (even Natalie's) and this was easily the best F4 in BB history. Surprisingly -- given how stupidly the season began with the couples twist -- this may turn out to be the most satisfying BB season for me since Will won (Jun winning BB4 is up there too, but that ending was tainted by Robert in the F4 as an audience favorite -- I couldn't stand him!). I would have preferred Sharon and Sheila in the F2, but I can't deny Adam's SMOOTH social gameplay and Ryan's nice guy-who-wins-comps a la Drew from BB5 game as well.

    As far as the F2 goes, everyone seems to agree (myself included) that Ryan made a big blunder by choosing Adam. This seems like a decent prediction based on what we know about the jury and how Adam has played the game. But does BB history support this theory as well?

    In the past 7 years of the current BB game (not counting Season 1), the Final HOH winner has won the game 4 times (Lisa in BB3, Drew in BB5, Boogie in BB7, Dick in BB8 ) and most notably, half of these were from the past two years. This seems, on the surface, to benefit Ryan; BB juries seem to respect the person who actually wins him/herself to the F2, right? So does that mean competition winning is a stronger incentive for a jurist to vote for you than likability? Is this why Ryan (with 3 HOH's & 2 POV wins to Adam's 2 HOH's & 1 POV win -- not to mention Ryan winning more luxury comps) felt he could take Adam to the end after all? Hmm....let's look closer though.

    The fact remains that the Final HOH statistic is weak because 4 out of 7 is a "minimum" majority and in all the cases where the Final HOH lost the Big Prize, it was because they were sitting next to someone who either played a better social game or was more well liked. BB4's Jun and BB6's Maggie were both less "controversial" than the HOH's who took them to the F2 (Allison and Ivette) and both winners played a better social game. And then of course there's Will -- the best social game player EVER in BB history -- who beat out the thoroughly unlikable Nicole. In fact, even BB3's Lisa arguably won because she was less controversial/more well-liked than Danielle, not because she won more competitions (including the last one). The BB3 Finale was a Danielle Roast, not a Tribute to Lisa's Competition Wins and Gameplay. Lisa was just the instrument the jury could use to toss Danielle into the fire. (The unlikability of Boogie and Dick aren't factors since they were mitigated by jury hatred for Erika (beats me, I think Boogie is worse personally) and Danielle (this one I get, she's a snotty, whiny bitch) -- both of whom were "unlikable" at the end as well.)

    Meanwhile, Ryan doesn't fit this pattern neatly. He's not as controversial as Ivette, Allison or Danielle were with their juries (In fact with a lot of other players, he'd probably win as the "nice guy" default. It's not difficult to see Ryan winning like Lisa did if he was sitting next to a Chelsia or Sheila for example) -- but this is the first time a relative "nice guy" who didn't piss a lot of people off is sitting next to an even MORE popular/likable player. Adam didn't just play a "nice guy" game, he managed to skillfully avoid making ANY enemies and managed to get to F2 in a way that he can claim he never knifed anyone in the back. (And shockingly, even Adam wasn't the "nicest" person this season -- that distinction goes to Sharon! Wow. THREE people who played a good social game of "nice guy/nice girl" dispositions and wound up in the F4? What an odd/satisfying season! Ryan would win in any other season and now he may lose to Adam, who in turn could have lost to Sharon. Ain't that something? BB usually fills the house with morons, jackasses and degenerates -- and this season was no exception -- and somehow the F4 managed to consist of the least offensive players. Amazing. Given the endings to BB7 and BB8, the ending of BB9 is enough to make me cheer and breathe a sigh of relief!)

    I think Ryan overestimated his chances against Adam probably by assuming the jury would respect him for winning more competitions etc. (He performed well in HOH/POV and luxury comps and in a wider range of skills than Adam did. Most players were really impressed with his control of numbers in that one luxury comp and the consensus seems to be that he is more intelligent than the average BB houseguest. And this could potentially be a problem for Adam but it's not supported by enough historical evidence -- I'll tackle it in a separate post.)

    But counting on this kind of consensus/respect to win the game against a likable player is a flawed strategy, going by BB history. Nicole (BB2) Allison (BB4), Ivette (BB6) and Danielle (BB8) all won more comps than their F2 counterpart and still lost. In Ivette's case, she only won one more comp than Maggie and in Danielle's case, Dick was still seen as a major comp threat (winning 3 HOH's and a POV on his own). Similarly, Adam won't seem like a comp slouch next to Ryan, having won 2 HOH's and a POV himself as well. If Adam had been absolutely lousy in comps, I could see Ryan's reasoning for taking him to the end. That's how Drew (the best past player analogous to Ryan) trumped Cowboy. But Adam is no Cowboy at comps, and the competition bragging right seems to matter so little to BB juries that even Drew -- with the most HOH wins in one season (4), still currently tied with Janelle -- only beat Cowboy by one vote, and in BB2, Nicole couldn't even beat Will, who never won a single competition.

    No, juries vote for who they like more and who pissed them off less, and if that person seemed to play a decent game as well, then it's a safe place to rest your vote. Adam has all three things going for him: likability, a strong social game with little to no enemies, and competition wins.

    I say Adam wins with 5 votes minimum, 6 votes most likely, and a clean sweep of 7 votes as a strong possibility.
    Last edited by Nik; 04-24-2008 at 05:22 AM.

  3. #43
    FORT Fogey VelvetHugs's Avatar
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nik;2943829;
    I have to say, as much as I don't personally like Ryan or Adam, they both played a pretty strong game and were less vile than James, Josh, and Chelsia and less annoying than Amanda, Alison, Jen, Parker and Natalie. In fact, I pretty much respected everyone's gameplay at the end (even Natalie's) and this was easily the best F4 in BB history. Surprisingly -- given how stupidly the season began with the couples twist -- this may turn out to be the most satisfying BB season for me since Will won (Jun winning BB4 is up there too, but that ending was tainted by Robert in the F4 as an audience favorite -- I couldn't stand him!). I would have preferred Sharon and Sheila in the F2, but I can't deny Adam's SMOOTH social gameplay and Ryan's nice guy-who-wins-comps a la Drew from BB5 game as well.

    As far as the F2 goes, everyone seems to agree (myself included) that Ryan made a big blunder by choosing Adam. This seems like a decent prediction based on what we know about the jury and how Adam has played the game. But does BB history support this theory as well?

    In the past 7 years of the current BB game (not counting Season 1), the Final HOH winner has won the game 4 times (Lisa in BB3, Drew in BB5, Boogie in BB7, Dick in BB8 ) and most notably, half of these were from the past two years. This seems, on the surface, to benefit Ryan; BB juries seem to respect the person who actually wins him/herself to the F2, right? So does that mean competition winning is a stronger incentive for a jurist to vote for you than likability? Is this why Ryan (with 3 HOH's & 2 POV wins to Adam's 2 HOH's & 1 POV win -- not to mention Ryan winning more luxury comps) felt he could take Adam to the end after all? Hmm....let's look closer though.

    The fact remains that the Final HOH statistic is weak because 4 out of 7 is a "minimum" majority and in all the cases where the Final HOH lost the Big Prize, it was because they were sitting next to someone who either played a better social game or was more well liked. BB4's Jun and BB6's Maggie were both less "controversial" than the HOH's who took them to the F2 (Allison and Ivette) and both winners played a better social game. And then of course there's Will -- the best social game player EVER in BB history -- who beat out the thoroughly unlikable Nicole. In fact, even BB3's Lisa arguably won because she was less controversial/more well-liked than Danielle, not because she won more competitions (including the last one). The BB3 Finale was a Danielle Roast, not a Tribute to Lisa's Competition Wins and Gameplay. Lisa was just the instrument the jury could use to toss Danielle into the fire. (The unlikability of Boogie and Dick aren't factors since they were mitigated by jury hatred for Erika (beats me, I think Boogie is worse personally) and Danielle (this one I get, she's a snotty, whiny bitch) -- both of whom were "unlikable" at the end as well.)

    Meanwhile, Ryan doesn't fit this pattern neatly. He's not as controversial as Ivette, Allison or Danielle were with their juries (In fact with a lot of other players, he'd probably win as the "nice guy" default. It's not difficult to see Ryan winning like Lisa did if he was sitting next to a Chelsia or Sheila for example) -- but this is the first time a relative "nice guy" who didn't piss a lot of people off is sitting next to an even MORE popular/likable player. Adam didn't just play a "nice guy" game, he managed to skillfully avoid making ANY enemies and managed to get to F2 in a way that he can claim he never knifed anyone in the back. (And shockingly, even Adam wasn't the "nicest" person this season -- that distinction goes to Sharon! Wow. THREE people who played a good social game of "nice guy/nice girl" dispositions and wound up in the F4? What an odd/satisfying season! Ryan would win in any other season and now he may lose to Adam, who in turn could have lost to Sharon. Ain't that something? BB usually fills the house with morons, jackasses and degenerates -- and this season was no exception -- and somehow the F4 managed to consist of the least offensive players. Amazing. Given the endings to BB7 and BB8, the ending of BB9 is enough to make me cheer and breathe a sigh of relief!)

    I think Ryan overestimated his chances against Adam probably by assuming the jury would respect him for winning more competitions etc. (He performed well in HOH/POV and luxury comps and in a wider range of skills than Adam did. Most players were really impressed with his control of numbers in that one luxury comp and the consensus seems to be that he is more intelligent than the average BB houseguest. And this could potentially be a problem for Adam but it's not supported by enough historical evidence -- I'll tackle it in a separate post.)

    But counting on this kind of consensus/respect to win the game against a likable player is a flawed strategy, going by BB history. Nicole (BB2) Allison (BB4), Ivette (BB6) and Danielle (BB8) all won more comps than their F2 counterpart and still lost. In Ivette's case, she only won one more comp than Maggie and in Danielle's case, Dick was still seen as a major comp threat (winning 3 HOH's and a POV on his own). Similarly, Adam won't seem like a comp slouch next to Ryan, having won 2 HOH's and a POV himself as well. If Adam had been absolutely lousy in comps, I could see Ryan's reasoning for taking him to the end. That's how Drew (the best past player analogous to Ryan) trumped Cowboy. But Adam is no Cowboy at comps, and the competition bragging right seems to matter so little to BB juries that even Drew -- with the most HOH wins in one season (4), still currently tied with Janelle -- only beat Cowboy by one vote, and in BB2, Nicole couldn't even beat Will, who never won a single competition.

    No, juries vote for who they like more and who pissed them off less, and if that person seemed to play a decent game as well, then it's a safe place to rest your vote. Adam has all three things going for him: likability, a strong social game with little to no enemies, and competition wins.

    I say Adam wins with 5 votes minimum, 6 votes most likely, and a clean sweep of 7 votes as a strong possibility.
    Wow you really know your BB. You really take it seriously. lol

  4. #44
    FORT Fogey
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Daisy in Kokomo;2943161;
    Here's my prediction:

    Matt votes for Ryan (and he'll expect Ryan to buy him something)
    Chelsia votes for Adam
    Josh votes for Adam
    James votes for Adam
    Natalie votes for Adam
    Sharon votes for Adam
    Sheila votes for Adam

    Adam wins 6-1

    After watching the jury last night and Sharon finding out that Ryan was in on her eviction all along, I completely agree with this (even though it is different from my earlier prediction in this thread). Sharon and Josh are both question marks, but ultimately, they don't matter because I think Adam has James, Chelsia, Sheila and Nat in the bag.


    Quote Originally Posted by Nik;2943829;
    I say Adam wins with 5 votes minimum, 6 votes most likely, and a clean sweep of 7 votes as a strong possibility.
    I am so hoping for a clean sweep!!! I think that would be awesome since Ryan seems so confident about him having the votes to win it all!

  5. #45
    FORT Regular Daisy in Kokomo's Avatar
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    I also think the fact that Ryan already won $10K and the luxury comp will work against him. If I were on the jury, if there were two "nice" players, 'd spread the money around and give it to the guy who hadn't won anything

  6. #46
    Nik
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Not to mention, Adam's money will go to autistic kids while Ryan's money will go to Jen, beer and pizza. I know where'd I'd place my vote.

  7. #47
    Nik
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by VelvetHugs;2943875;
    Wow you really know your BB. You really take it seriously. lol
    LOL, a little too seriously, right? I know, I'm such a dork.

  8. #48
    Magical Elf MFWalkoff's Avatar
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nik;2945685;
    Not to mention, Adam's money will go to autistic kids while Ryan's money will go to Jen, beer and pizza. I know where'd I'd place my vote.
    Well, once he finds out he's fired, and starts reading through his hate mail, Adam may have second thoughts about his money going to autistic kids...
    "Whatever you are, be a good one." Abraham Lincoln

  9. #49
    Good/Bad DAN + ED Fan andee's Avatar
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    Apparently Big Sheil wants Adam to put his money where his mouth is and tell he is giving *all* his money to charity in his finale speech.
    Sure, just because She didn't win, nice woman, eh? Sorry, I don't care for her. This info comes from something shown on YouTube after Adam and Ryan went to hear speeches from the jury room.

  10. #50
    FORT Regular The Matchmaker's Avatar
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    Re: F2 Predictions? (Now that we know the F4?)

    1st time watching a BB series...not that impressed with cast. However I would like to know what is going to happen tonight. Will all the houseguests return to the BB house or will just the jury? Will there be a reunion program?

    Thanks in advance!

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