B13 Thoughts and Comments - Page 21

ky-la · 01-05-2009, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZulaMay

I would love to see the profiles as well. It struck me that Molly and Melissa are both rather young.....but Molly more so. For some reason, 24 just seems significantly younger to me than 26 (or is she 25?). At 24 you're barely past college age; at 25 you've hit the quarter-century mark. Obviously everyone is different. I can't wait to see their personalities1

Melissa either recently turned 26 or does soon. She graduated in 2001.

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Bloomers · 01-05-2009, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZulaMay

I would love to see the profiles as well. It struck me that Molly and Melissa are both rather young.....but Molly more so. For some reason, 24 just seems significantly younger to me than 26 (or is she 25?). At 24 you're barely past college age; at 25 you've hit the quarter-century mark. Obviously everyone is different. I can't wait to see their personalities1

By the time I was 25, I was in my career job in education, was finishing my Masters Degree, was married, and was planning out a good time for a baby.

The party/social scene was over, and I was ready to settle down into a family routine rhythm. I wasn't particularly out of the ordinary for that time in the last quarter of the 1900s, and I don't think I was particularly that much more mature than everyone else of the time either.

Times and attitudes change, but 25 is not really like 17!

FARAWAYFAN25 · 01-05-2009, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bloomers

By the time I was 25, I was in my career job in education, was finishing my Masters Degree, was married, and was planning out a good time for a baby.

The party/social scene was over, and I was ready to settle down into a family routine rhythm. I wasn't particularly out of the ordinary for that time in the last quarter of the 1900s, and I don't think I was particularly that much more mature than everyone else of the time either.

Times and attitudes change, but 25 is not really like 17!

Bloomers...ITA! I'm 26 and I have both a BS and a MS, and a carrer. I've been married for 3.5 years, and I'm looking at a timeline for a baby. Several of my friends also have their degress and a baby or two and more on the way. 26 really isn't too young to think about settling down with a family...JMHO

ZulaMay · 01-05-2009, 06:37 PM

It's not that I think 24 is too young to settle down (everyone's different). I just think Melissa being one year closer to Jason's age might tip the scale a little in her favor. I got married at 26, so maybe I just relate to that age a little more!

Mr Write · 01-05-2009, 08:12 PM

Here you go. Make of it what you may.

This profile based both on dating and marriage trends within the US population and patterns that seem to hold true for The Bachelor as a show. Although I only have a limited number of variables, have only just started working on the profile and the results are far from perfect, I think it has some validity.

There are, of course, significant problems. We don’t have very much data on personality traits, education and occupation. In addition, I’m not sure whether Jason will behave more like a typical bachelor on the TV show or more like a single dad living and working in the US. I have weighted the profile slightly to the former since I think the structure of the show influences the outcome very heavily. The profile for a prospective partner absent of the show would be somewhat different.

Here’s the preliminary profile: I think F1 will be beautiful (duh!). She will be warm, agreeable, gregarious, extraverted, athletic and adventurous. She will most likely be 25 or 26 years old (although it is possible that she will be a little older). She will be college educated, a great conversationalist and will probably work in sales, marketing, accounting, purchasing, management or some other business related field. She will like to travel, but will not travel for a living. There will not be significant cultural difference between Jason and his chosen partner.

I don’t know who best fits this description, probably more than one bachelorette.

Here are some other general comments: I would anticipate that at least one teacher (probably Lauren rather than Julie) and one of the flight attendants (probably Naomi rather than Ann) will progress quite far in the show, but do not think a flight attendant will be F1. Any students (I think Raquel is the only one) will be eliminated fairly quickly, certainly by week 3. I don’t think any of the bachelorettes over 30 will make it very far or those younger than 24. I also think one and possibly two of the single moms will progress quite along way. If this were real life rather than Reality TV, I think one of the single moms would be among the favorites.

Here is a partial explanation: I have only watched two shows, but have looked through historic data about the show (I have excluded the season with bachelor Byron since I think it is an outlier). In virtually all cases that I have been able to examine, the F1 is younger than the average age of the 25 women. (In Andy Baldwin’s year appears to have been the exception since the average age of the group was 25.75 and Tessa, the F1, was 26 – still pretty close though). For Jason’s season, the average age of the group is 26.88 years – suggesting a winner aged something like 25 or 26 with 24 and 27-29 also possibilities. This projected age is supported by remarrying trends among the US population. Currently, divorced men who remarry partner with women that are on average 6 years younger than themselves. Again this suggests that Jason might pick someone who is about 25 or 26. There is one big caveats. Given Jason’s statements about wanting someone who has had some life experience and the tendency for divorced men with children to marry other divorcees (see below), it is possible that this trend might be skewed toward slightly older women say those in the 27-29 age range. Overall, however, I think trends in the show trump trends in society and F1 will be 25 or 26 years old. There is likely to be greater age variation among the F6, but not that much. In the last 5 seasons of the bachelor, the average age of the F6 is lower than the average age for the 25 as a whole. This might not be a shock to anyone, but the typical “Bachelor” goes for one of the younger women.

Obviously, predicting the outcome is more complicated than simply looking at age. This is where Jason makes life more interesting. We know, for example, that about 66% of divorced men with children marry women who are also divorced. This would suggest that the single moms in the group – assuming they were previously married – might be attractive to Jason. Incidentally, the numbers are markedly different for divorced men without children. 80% of these men marry someone who has not been married before. However, the “Brady Bunch” family in which both parents bring their children into a newly formed family unit and then look after those children together is relatively rare. It would be much more likely that the single moms in the group would remarry a previously unmarried man, if they remarry at all (divorced women with children are less likely to remarry than divorced men with children). Overall, I think this points away from one of the single moms being F1, although if Jason actually chose one of these women, the chances of a successful second marriage would increase significantly. I do think, however, that one or two of the single moms will progress quite a long way.

Historically, teachers have done extremely well on the show, particularly when the bachelor’s occupation has been something other than finance, business or commerce. Any bachelorettes with interesting/cool careers particularly if associated with some commercial applications might also do well (ie. jewelry design or interior design). The presence of flight attendants among the 25 is unusual and suggests that Jason included an interest in travel as part of his criteria. I would expect at least one flight attendant to progress quite far.

Obviously there are other factors, which are included in the model, and even more information that we don’t know. I know nothing of the women’s personality traits (which obviously are really really really important), very little about their careers and next to nothing about their education. This profile also misses the natural “wows” and “yucks” that people feel when meeting each other. With all that said, here are the result of the preliminary profile:

Bettes that fit the preliminary profile:
Dominique
Erica
Melissa
Molly
Nicole

Bettes that are very close
Jillian
Kari
Jackie

Bettes that would be close if this were not reality TV. (Look for one or two of them to progress quite far. Again, if Jason actually chose one of these women, the chances of a successful second marriage increase significantly)
Megan
Treasure
Stephanie

Bettes that could progress quite far but are unlikely to be F1, F2 or F3 (look for one of the teachers probably Lauren rather than Julie to progress, and one of the flight attendants probably Naomi rather than Ann)Ann
Julie
Lauren
Lisa
Naomi
Natalie
Nikki

Unlikely Candidates
Emily
Shelby
Sharon

Also rans:
Raquel
Renee
Shannon
Stacia

Clearly there are problems. If the sluthers on this board are correct, and I have no reason to doubt their prowess, this profile might be a better predictor of F1-F6 than those that make the first cut. Applied to past shows, it would, however, have predicted Deanna over Jenni, and Tessa over Bevin. In the Borgsi show, it would have predicted Jennifer over Sadie, but would have favored Lisa over both of them. In the Stork season, it would have predicted Sara S over Moana. Unfortunately, it would have failed in the most recent season to have predicted Shayne over Chelsea.

As the show progresses, the profile/model could be improved significantly.

Just some thoughts. Hope they of interest to some and that you all enjoy the show. Sorry about the length of the post.

BTW – The model would predict the following as making it through tonight. Not as good as the sluthers!

Dominique
Erica
Melissa
Molly
Nicole
Jillian
Jackie
Kari
Megan
Treasure
Stephanie
Lauren or possibly Julie
Naomi or possibly Ann
Lisa
Natalie

northernviewer · 01-05-2009, 08:13 PM

I cant' believe that I'm actually going to tape the Bach tonight and watch a hockey game instead!!! Canada is playing Sweden in the World Juniors Hockey Tournament tonight. We beat the US and Russia to go for the GOLD! Oh well, I'll get to watch it later. Have fun ladies, tonight's show should be wonderful, can't wait to see Jason again

northernviewer · 01-05-2009, 08:17 PM

Very interesting read Mr Write, looks like you are going to be spot on in your predictions.

satorus · 01-05-2009, 08:35 PM

I haven't posted or sleuthed much this season, I think I'm just trying to enjoy the show - but I have a few thoughts. From Fleiss' & Jason's interviews I think this season is being taken more seriously by all parties involved. First, Jason is on the show for a purpose - a mate; second there is a child involved. I think that is why Fleiss said something to the effect that this one had a good chance of resulting in a marriage (he said 'had' because of the serious nature of the season, not because they have already broken up). Then I read Jason say something to the effect of not having done anything to make his intended cringe while watching the story unfold. I think this will influence the editing and while I think Fleiss will add the drama, he will not endanger the couple.
Of course this may be all wishful thinking - but I still hope for a little seriousness along the way - this may be our first real shot at that (well, maybe 2nd if we count Byron).

Happy New Year FORT!

BlondieGal · 01-05-2009, 08:35 PM

Wow Mr Wright ~ I am impressed!

It would be great if you did this for us on future seasons. Do keep posting with us.

KareyR2 · 01-05-2009, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlondieGal

Wow Mr Wright ~ I am impressed!

It would be great if you did this for us on future seasons. Do keep posting with us.

ITA Blondiegal. Fascinating read Mr. Write

and WELCOME!!!! I hope you will continue posting and I would love to hear more from you as you get the know the edited personalities that Fleiss will show us of the women. Thanks so much
Karey

01-05-2009, 06:37 PM	#204
ZulaMay FORT Fogey Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,835	Re: B13 Thoughts and Comments It's not that I think 24 is too young to settle down (everyone's different). I just think Melissa being one year closer to Jason's age might tip the scale a little in her favor. I got married at 26, so maybe I just relate to that age a little more!

01-05-2009, 08:12 PM	#205
Mr Write FORT Newbie Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 21	Re: B13 Thoughts and Comments Here you go. Make of it what you may. This profile based both on dating and marriage trends within the US population and patterns that seem to hold true for The Bachelor as a show. Although I only have a limited number of variables, have only just started working on the profile and the results are far from perfect, I think it has some validity. There are, of course, significant problems. We don’t have very much data on personality traits, education and occupation. In addition, I’m not sure whether Jason will behave more like a typical bachelor on the TV show or more like a single dad living and working in the US. I have weighted the profile slightly to the former since I think the structure of the show influences the outcome very heavily. The profile for a prospective partner absent of the show would be somewhat different. Here’s the preliminary profile: I think F1 will be beautiful (duh!). She will be warm, agreeable, gregarious, extraverted, athletic and adventurous. She will most likely be 25 or 26 years old (although it is possible that she will be a little older). She will be college educated, a great conversationalist and will probably work in sales, marketing, accounting, purchasing, management or some other business related field. She will like to travel, but will not travel for a living. There will not be significant cultural difference between Jason and his chosen partner. I don’t know who best fits this description, probably more than one bachelorette. Here are some other general comments: I would anticipate that at least one teacher (probably Lauren rather than Julie) and one of the flight attendants (probably Naomi rather than Ann) will progress quite far in the show, but do not think a flight attendant will be F1. Any students (I think Raquel is the only one) will be eliminated fairly quickly, certainly by week 3. I don’t think any of the bachelorettes over 30 will make it very far or those younger than 24. I also think one and possibly two of the single moms will progress quite along way. If this were real life rather than Reality TV, I think one of the single moms would be among the favorites. Here is a partial explanation: I have only watched two shows, but have looked through historic data about the show (I have excluded the season with bachelor Byron since I think it is an outlier). In virtually all cases that I have been able to examine, the F1 is younger than the average age of the 25 women. (In Andy Baldwin’s year appears to have been the exception since the average age of the group was 25.75 and Tessa, the F1, was 26 – still pretty close though). For Jason’s season, the average age of the group is 26.88 years – suggesting a winner aged something like 25 or 26 with 24 and 27-29 also possibilities. This projected age is supported by remarrying trends among the US population. Currently, divorced men who remarry partner with women that are on average 6 years younger than themselves. Again this suggests that Jason might pick someone who is about 25 or 26. There is one big caveats. Given Jason’s statements about wanting someone who has had some life experience and the tendency for divorced men with children to marry other divorcees (see below), it is possible that this trend might be skewed toward slightly older women say those in the 27-29 age range. Overall, however, I think trends in the show trump trends in society and F1 will be 25 or 26 years old. There is likely to be greater age variation among the F6, but not that much. In the last 5 seasons of the bachelor, the average age of the F6 is lower than the average age for the 25 as a whole. This might not be a shock to anyone, but the typical “Bachelor” goes for one of the younger women. Obviously, predicting the outcome is more complicated than simply looking at age. This is where Jason makes life more interesting. We know, for example, that about 66% of divorced men with children marry women who are also divorced. This would suggest that the single moms in the group – assuming they were previously married – might be attractive to Jason. Incidentally, the numbers are markedly different for divorced men without children. 80% of these men marry someone who has not been married before. However, the “Brady Bunch” family in which both parents bring their children into a newly formed family unit and then look after those children together is relatively rare. It would be much more likely that the single moms in the group would remarry a previously unmarried man, if they remarry at all (divorced women with children are less likely to remarry than divorced men with children). Overall, I think this points away from one of the single moms being F1, although if Jason actually chose one of these women, the chances of a successful second marriage would increase significantly. I do think, however, that one or two of the single moms will progress quite a long way. Historically, teachers have done extremely well on the show, particularly when the bachelor’s occupation has been something other than finance, business or commerce. Any bachelorettes with interesting/cool careers particularly if associated with some commercial applications might also do well (ie. jewelry design or interior design). The presence of flight attendants among the 25 is unusual and suggests that Jason included an interest in travel as part of his criteria. I would expect at least one flight attendant to progress quite far. Obviously there are other factors, which are included in the model, and even more information that we don’t know. I know nothing of the women’s personality traits (which obviously are really really really important), very little about their careers and next to nothing about their education. This profile also misses the natural “wows” and “yucks” that people feel when meeting each other. With all that said, here are the result of the preliminary profile: Bettes that fit the preliminary profile: Dominique Erica Melissa Molly Nicole Bettes that are very close Jillian Kari Jackie Bettes that would be close if this were not reality TV. (Look for one or two of them to progress quite far. Again, if Jason actually chose one of these women, the chances of a successful second marriage increase significantly) Megan Treasure Stephanie Bettes that could progress quite far but are unlikely to be F1, F2 or F3 (look for one of the teachers probably Lauren rather than Julie to progress, and one of the flight attendants probably Naomi rather than Ann)Ann Julie Lauren Lisa Naomi Natalie Nikki Unlikely Candidates Emily Shelby Sharon Also rans: Raquel Renee Shannon Stacia Clearly there are problems. If the sluthers on this board are correct, and I have no reason to doubt their prowess, this profile might be a better predictor of F1-F6 than those that make the first cut. Applied to past shows, it would, however, have predicted Deanna over Jenni, and Tessa over Bevin. In the Borgsi show, it would have predicted Jennifer over Sadie, but would have favored Lisa over both of them. In the Stork season, it would have predicted Sara S over Moana. Unfortunately, it would have failed in the most recent season to have predicted Shayne over Chelsea. As the show progresses, the profile/model could be improved significantly. Just some thoughts. Hope they of interest to some and that you all enjoy the show. Sorry about the length of the post. BTW – The model would predict the following as making it through tonight. Not as good as the sluthers! Dominique Erica Melissa Molly Nicole Jillian Jackie Kari Megan Treasure Stephanie Lauren or possibly Julie Naomi or possibly Ann Lisa Natalie

01-05-2009, 08:13 PM	#206
northernviewer FORT Fogey Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,972	Re: B13 Thoughts and Comments I cant' believe that I'm actually going to tape the Bach tonight and watch a hockey game instead!!! Canada is playing Sweden in the World Juniors Hockey Tournament tonight. We beat the US and Russia to go for the GOLD! Oh well, I'll get to watch it later. Have fun ladies, tonight's show should be wonderful, can't wait to see Jason again __________________ If it looks like a duck......or a spider...... call it Ted

01-05-2009, 08:17 PM	#207
northernviewer FORT Fogey Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,972	Re: B13 Thoughts and Comments Very interesting read Mr Write, looks like you are going to be spot on in your predictions. __________________ If it looks like a duck......or a spider...... call it Ted

01-05-2009, 08:35 PM	#208
satorus FORT Fanatic Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Oregon-moved to Calif for school- finished school, still in CA Posts: 685	Re: B13 Thoughts and Comments I haven't posted or sleuthed much this season, I think I'm just trying to enjoy the show - but I have a few thoughts. From Fleiss' & Jason's interviews I think this season is being taken more seriously by all parties involved. First, Jason is on the show for a purpose - a mate; second there is a child involved. I think that is why Fleiss said something to the effect that this one had a good chance of resulting in a marriage (he said 'had' because of the serious nature of the season, not because they have already broken up). Then I read Jason say something to the effect of not having done anything to make his intended cringe while watching the story unfold. I think this will influence the editing and while I think Fleiss will add the drama, he will not endanger the couple. Of course this may be all wishful thinking - but I still hope for a little seriousness along the way - this may be our first real shot at that (well, maybe 2nd if we count Byron). Happy New Year FORT!

01-05-2009, 08:35 PM	#209
BlondieGal Fort Blondie Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Scotland Yards Posts: 5,973	Re: B13 Thoughts and Comments Wow Mr Wright ~ I am impressed! It would be great if you did this for us on future seasons. Do keep posting with us. __________________ The seat of knowledge is in the head, of wisdom, in the heart ~ William Hazlitt