Respectfully, commander, I don't know if I agree with that.
When my girlfriend and I watch
TAR, we always try to determine "which one of us would do the road block based on the first clue (and then how it would have turned out once we see what the task was)" and "which of the detours should we do (and then decide if we'd made the right decision.)"
Over the years, we've basically been trained by the
TAR course constructors that taking the more physically demanding task is usually the better option when the other task is based on luck. (And the physically demanding or potentially scary task is ALWAYS the better option when the other task is simply "less physically demanding or not scary.")
It's about variables.
The coal task had only two variables:
1) How fast can you bag coal and sew up the bags?
2) How hard is it to find the place you have to deliver one bag of coal to?
The nail painting task had more variables IN THEORY:
1) Would anyone know that typically nail painting in Mozambique is done by men?
2) What is the general attitude towards Americans?
3) What does the money look like and is it easy to figure out how much you're getting?
4) How much is the amount of money you have to earn, compared to the relative economic level of the region?
5) What is the competition for nail painting--and how many people will actually want their nails painted?
6) What is the typical price for nail painting--and how many people whose nails you have to paint will it take to raise the amount of money you have to earn?
6) Have the course creators fixed the "Vietnamese market flaw" in these "sell X amount of Y" challenges? (The flaw being the team that realized that they weren't bound to charge market value for their goods--they could outrageously undercut the prices of the locals.)
When my girlfriend and I considered the choice in this particular detour, we liked the coal task until they added the "find a specified house to deliver one bag to." We still picked it--but I wondered if that was the right choice.
Then, when Phil said that the nailpainting in Mozambique is typically done by men--something that no one, save those who have spent time in Mozambique, would know--I thought "whew! Glad we didn't pick THAT one." Not because I'm unwilling to paint nails--but I would have assumed that my girlfriend would be the one to do it...darn these traditional American gender roles anyway!
Then--I sat and watched Team Guido and Team Cha Cha Cha choose the coal task...and I thought "Wow--they're playing smart...but this time, they were tricked out of taking a task they would have done well at..."
Then--I sat and watched the two teams that chose nail painting, Charla & Mirna and the BQ's, and I laughed...because I knew what Phil told me, that MEN do nailpainting in Mozambique...and because they didn't know that, they thought they were doing something easy for them as traditionally-American-gender-role-assuming women. I sat back and prepared to enjoy them being ignored by everyone and getting frustrated because no one would want them to paint their nails.
...except...that didn't happen.
Both Charla & Mirna and the BQ's breezed through the task--and I have to give Mirna credit for coming up with the "Hollywood" idea. THEY HAVE CAMERAS FOLLOWING THEM, meaning that they become a novelty...and that trumped any hesitation about having their nails painted by the non-traditional gender (in Mozambique) for doing so.
Teri & Ian got lucky by being unlucky. They made the right decision--to do the task that you're taken to--and were rewarded for it, even if it wasn't the task that they chose to do...and certainly having had C&M and the BQ's get the general interest level in the market up made it easy for them to get their task done.
And the coal task? Heavy lifting, dirty, and hard (scooping coal=hard, sewing bags=hard, carrying bag=hard, finding house=hard)--and my girlfriend and I would have been doing that one, had we been there...
And I think we'd have tried to hug Phil, too...but it wouldn't have been as laughably cute as it was when Oswald tried it--Phil's reaction and the chase that ensued was definitely one of my favorite
TAR moments ever!
...but, the bottom line...all things considered, I'm not sure that it was obvious that the nailpainting task was the right one...at least, it wasn't until we saw how much faster and easier it turned out to be.
And the teams certainly didn't know that when they made THEIR choices.
pg--seattle