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Thread: EW's Final 4 Odds. Do you agree?

  1. #11
    not afraid to frolic
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    Well- we've discovered an interesting demographic point. ANTM fans are not gamblers!
    (Good explanation from our guest cnidoc- my bookie friends would be proud.)
    My money would still be on April if I had any money and I was foolish enough to use it for gambling.

  2. #12
    FORT Fogey Salome's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brklynGrownUp
    Well- we've discovered an interesting demographic point. ANTM fans are not gamblers!
    Ooooh, betmaker's odds - I get it. I just remembered that probability stats are opposite for gambling. Anyway, I think EW is wrong, especially about Mercedes being as likely as Shandi.

    It would be cool if we had a webpage or something to make bets on the eliminations. Not for money, of course... maybe next season.

  3. #13
    What Would Janice Do? littlecat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cnidoc
    If we're talking bookmaker's odds, Yoanna's 6-1 odds means if you bet $1 on Yoanna, and she wins, you'll win $6 (and get a total of $7 back). This is because Yoanna is expected to win only once out of every 6 times she loses; she has a 1/(1+6) = 1/7 chanceof winning.

    You'd make the most money betting on Yoanna, meaning she's the longest shot.

    Therefore, EW thinks:

    1) Shandi/Mercedes (2/5 chance of winning)
    2) April (1/4 chance of winning)
    3) Yoanna (1/7 chance of winning)
    if that's true, and if yoanna is the next one eliminated, does that create an edge for anyone? i kind of put shandi and yoanna together as being more similiar and april and mercedes together as being more similar (this grouping is based on their personalities and then their "looks;" ie Shandi and Yoanna are a little more edgy/artistic/classic whereas april and mercedes are more commercial/exotic?

  4. #14
    Special withoutasol's Avatar
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    i dunno, to me exotic IS edgy- just my take-

  5. #15
    FORT Newbie christosterone's Avatar
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    Those things are always wrong, but I hope Shandi and Mercedes make the top two; however, it would kind of be a repeat of last year. Mercedes=Shannon and Shandi=Adrian.

  6. #16
    What Would Janice Do? littlecat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by withoutasol
    i dunno, to me exotic IS edgy- just my take-
    i can see it with mercedes, but april doesn't present edgy at all, she comes across as kind of corporate, which makes sense, since that's her background.
    from the fashion sense, tyra is right, april needs to relax.

  7. #17
    FORT Fogey Frostelized's Avatar
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    I can definately see April as edgy. Did you see her Laundry photo? That is EDGEY.

  8. #18
    FORT Newbie christosterone's Avatar
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    Does anyone know how to attach files to a post. I can't figure it out???

  9. #19
    Picture Perfect SnowflakeGirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brklynGrownUp
    Well- we've discovered an interesting demographic point. ANTM fans are not gamblers!
    That's true. Ask me about haute couture, makeup or hair products, but don't expect me to understand what those numbers mean.

    And despite cnidoc's excellent explanation, I'm still not sure I get it.
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  10. #20
    FORT Fogey Frostelized's Avatar
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    I think I'm looking at it like a fight.

    Shandi/Mercedes (2/5 chance of winning)
    2) April (1/4 chance of winning)
    3) Yoanna (1/7 chance of winning)

    Like if Mercedes team was 2 people against 5 people which is pretty good and then Yoanna's team would be 1 person against 7 which isn't good at all.

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