Maybe I'm mistaken, and perhaps this has been mentioned before, but I really thought Lauren had a great chance of winning.
A chance, that is, until Jennifer did the same thing that Simon did in season two. Jennifer said to Lauren "with that performance you very well may have won". That is almost exactly what Simon said to Clay. I think that remark served to pump up any who might have become complacent hearing all the talk calling Scotty a shoo-in.
Couple that with the Steven Tyler comments regarding Lauren being "prettier" and reminding everyone that she was his American Idol from the time she auditioned, just revved up the Scotty voters whose finger are all probably still bleeding.