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Thread: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

  1. #71
    FORT Fogey Bet2Win's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    I really don't understand DI. The voting raw numbers have Crystal winning on all three lines. The geographs have Lee winning in states where he is clearly the loser. As an example:

    North Carolina

    Lee: Busy.. 176 Vote.. 872
    Lee 2: Busy.. 132 Vote.. 907
    Lee 3: Busy.. 144 Vote.. 892

    Crystal: Busy.. 119 Vote.. 2,033
    Crystal 2: Busy.. 236 Vote.. 2,546
    Crystal 3: Busy.. 338 Vote.. 3,007

    Crystal leads in both the busy signals and votes, yet DI declares Lee as the winner in North Carolina. Can anyone explain what I seem to be missing here?
    Last edited by Bet2Win; 05-26-2010 at 11:15 AM.

  2. #72
    Fool... but no pity. Krom's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Yeah, I won't pretend to understand their metrics at all. What does the "raw data" mean if its not an accurate prediction? Where exactly ARE the other figures coming from if not from raw data? Someone explain.

    And honestly? Although at times I loathed Adam Lambert, that still seemed to be an almost equal mismatch between him and the bland, bland Kris Allen. And Allen won. This year seems like a repeat in that sense, even if Crystal isn't much like Adam otherwise. Its the bland "cute boy" getting some kind of totally insane power voting. In fact, I suspect he's getting each and every one of those Casey James votes now, since Casey and his stupid hair didn't carry enough votes all on his own. Heck, I bet the Aaron Kelly fans, whichever screaming teenies those are, probably "transferred" over to Lee too, since Crystal is definitely not going to be getting many of the Team Disney votes.

    "You don't rehearse Mr. T, you just turn him loose."
    -----Sylvester Stallone, on Mr. T-----

  3. #73
    Rumbelle - so many feels Little Sew&Sew's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    I live in that state and voted for Lee - multiple times. You can blame me if you want!!

    Have never really been clear on how DialIdol really works, especially now that you can text your votes (if you are with the one and only provider they allow).
    All magic comes with a price - Rumpelstiltskin

  4. #74
    FORT Newbie ginert's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by Bet2Win;3914458;
    I really don't understand DI. The voting raw numbers have Crystal winning on all three lines. The geographs have Lee winning in states where he is clearly the loser. As an example:

    North Carolina

    Lee: Busy.. 176 Vote.. 872
    Lee 2: Busy.. 132 Vote.. 907
    Lee 3: Busy.. 144 Vote.. 892

    Crystal: Busy.. 119 Vote.. 2,033
    Crystal 2: Busy.. 236 Vote.. 2,546
    Crystal 3: Busy.. 338 Vote.. 3,007

    Crystal leads in both the busy signals and votes, yet DI declares Lee as the winner in North Carolina. Can anyone explain what I seem to be missing here?
    It goes off the percentage of busy signals not the number of votes.
    Lee 1: 20% of the time you got a busy signal
    Lee 2: 14%
    Lee 3: 16%

    Crystal 1: 6%
    Crystal 2: 9%
    Crystal 3: 11%

    So it basically means all of Lee's lines were busier with people calling so he got more votes. At least this is how I take it.

  5. #75
    FORT Fogey Bet2Win's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by ginert;3914487;
    It goes off the percentage of busy signals not the number of votes.
    Lee 1: 20% of the time you got a busy signal
    Lee 2: 14%
    Lee 3: 16%

    Crystal 1: 6%
    Crystal 2: 9%
    Crystal 3: 11%

    So it basically means all of Lee's lines were busier with people calling so he got more votes. At least this is how I take it.

    I still don't get it. Lee's total busy signals are 452; and Crystal's are 693. But because he got a lot less actual votes (2771 vs. 7586), his lower busy signals score higher. How does that work? If Lee's busy signals were to actually convert to votes, he is still a lot lower that Crystal. Did the people dialing and getting busy signals give up? If they hadn't, then his actual votes would be higher. No wonder I didn't do well in statistics!

    On another site, they went back to the last 2 years of DI stats, and in both of those years, the predicted winners had won in the raw numbers; and this season, the raw number have been correct all season.


  6. #76
    Urban Renewal - a new era BuckeyeAddict's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by Krom;3914477;
    Yeah, I won't pretend to understand their metrics at all. What does the "raw data" mean if its not an accurate prediction? Where exactly ARE the other figures coming from if not from raw data? Someone explain.

    And honestly? Although at times I loathed Adam Lambert, that still seemed to be an almost equal mismatch between him and the bland, bland Kris Allen. And Allen won. This year seems like a repeat in that sense, even if Crystal isn't much like Adam otherwise. Its the bland "cute boy" getting some kind of totally insane power voting. In fact, I suspect he's getting each and every one of those Casey James votes now, since Casey and his stupid hair didn't carry enough votes all on his own. Heck, I bet the Aaron Kelly fans, whichever screaming teenies those are, probably "transferred" over to Lee too, since Crystal is definitely not going to be getting many of the Team Disney votes.
    No, no, no! Lee did not get all of Casey's votes. Mine and another friend's went to Crystal. I didn't always vote strictly for Casey, but Crystal was the only other person I voted for the last 6-10 weeks. And I would have voted more for Crystal in earlier weeks except when I got enough busy signals for her, I figured she was fine. I've wanted her to win all along. But I wanted Casey to last as long as possible too, and he needed the help!

  7. #77
    FORT Newbie ginert's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by Bet2Win;3914532;
    I still don't get it. Lee's total busy signals are 452; and Crystal's are 693. But because he got a lot less actual votes (2771 vs. 7586), his lower busy signals score higher. How does that work? If Lee's busy signals were to actually convert to votes, he is still a lot lower that Crystal. Did the people dialing and getting busy signals give up? If they hadn't, then his actual votes would be higher. No wonder I didn't do well in statistics!

    On another site, they went back to the last 2 years of DI stats, and in both of those years, the predicted winners had won in the raw numbers; and this season, the raw number have been correct all season.

    Dial Idol is only a small fraction of the voting population so that means if both Lee and Crystal had the same number of phone lines open and you voted 100 times for each of them on line one, you would have 94 votes for Crystal and only 80 votes for Lee. Now technically you voted more for Crystal but what this is saying is Lee's lines were more flooded and it was harder to get through meaning he was racking up more votes than Crystal. I hope that makes sense. It is hard to explain.

    You can't use raw numbers because all that is saying is there are more Crystal fans using the software program. 90% of the votes could have been for her but if you got through everytime, it would mean that no one else was voting for her
    Last edited by ginert; 05-26-2010 at 01:00 PM. Reason: added info

  8. #78
    FORT Fanatic laceygirl's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by pillbeam;3914432;
    I hope you are right, TopCat. If the vote spread indicated by DialIdol were smaller, I might take heart. But Dialidol has a wide spread for Lee, and Dialidol has always been correct about the Top 2 outcome (with unknown knowledge of text votes).

    On the other hand, it would make no sense if Lee did win, because Crystal outsang him by miles, the judges praised Crystal, Lee tanked with his vocals and Simon told Lee that Lee "deserved to be there" (ie. Simon's classic "you've lost buddy" speech.).
    --

    ---
    David Cook in the finale did not have a good night, David A. had a fabulous night, and we all know the outcome of that. Lee will win American Idol...

  9. #79
    FORT Fogey
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    The raw data is meaningless. Dial Idol does not make its predictions based on the amount of calls the contestants get. The raw data just shows how many calls each contestant received from dial idol users. There aren't many dial idol users (you have to vote using a dial-up modem) and they tend to vote a lot. So the raw data is not representative of how the actual viewers are voting. The raw data is not part of the prediction. Dial Idol is interested in the busy percentage and they make their predictions based on the proportion of busy signals to through calls. They also use a formula that weights the call based on which time zone it is in.
    In short, don't look at the raw data. It is not a valid predictor of who is doing well in the competition.

  10. #80
    Ruben is "Soulful" pillbeam's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    I suspect Casey's votes went to Crystal, because they both perform in the same blue-eyed-soul/folky/guitar genre. I am a big Casey and Crystal fan.
    ---
    "Tons of surprises, but it wouldn't be 'American Idol' without it, would it?" Cowell told MTV News. "At the end of the day, I could go out and find 12 great singers, but that's kind of boring. The fact that there's people there who shouldn't be there makes it 'American Idol.' "

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