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Thread: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

  1. #31
    FORT Fogey libgirl2's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by Misty8723;3863177;
    I think there are less people calling. I noticed last night that Ryan didn't mention how many votes they got like he usually does.
    I haven't voted once this season.... haven't even been tempted. While I enjoy certain people more, I know you don't have to win "to win"
    "To err is human, to arr is a pirate"

  2. #32
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by pillbeam;3872173;
    Geez, the predictions from last night's performance of Top 9 are scary: The sublime Casey is kinda low on the scale, and the unartistic Lee is near the top. Go figure.

    I guess if Casey gets the lowest votes, it will give the judges a dramatic opportunity to exercise a "save."
    --
    I am not quite sure how it impacts on American Idol, but I have found that the Raw Scores are the better and closer indicator on Dancing with the Stars.
    Don't ask me why because because I don't understand all the technicalities involved, but somebody on that board tipped us on that sometime ago, and while it isn't perfect, it comes fairly close.
    Check the bottom 3 on the Raw Scores and see how close it comes to the bottom 3 that are actually announced.
    If grace is an ocean, we're all drowning.

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  3. #33
    Urban Renewal - a new era BuckeyeAddict's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    This post isn't about VFTW nor DialIdol, but I think it is somewhat similar. I posted about this a few weeks ago in the spoiler section, but it seems to fit here better.

    There is a group called Idol Democracy, which has a little over 1000 people participating in a weekly poll of who they would vote for if they only had one vote. I know that is a terribly small sampling, but I still find the results interesting. They appear to fluctuate based on the contestants performances. Crystal has been on top every week, but who comes in after her varies every week. This is the voting for this week:

    Crystal 30.1%
    Casey 13.6%
    Katie 11.3%
    Michael 10.3%
    Lee 9.7%
    Siobhan 9.5%
    Tim 6.4%
    Andrew 5.4%
    Aaron 3.8%

    If anyone is interested, here are last week’s results:
    Crystal 29.2%
    Lee 14.5%
    Casey 10.4%
    Katie 9.1%
    Michael 8.8%
    Siobhan 7.4%
    Andrew 6.4%
    Tim 5.5%
    Didi 4.8%
    Aaron 3.8%

  4. #34
    FORT Fogey
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeAddict;3872335;
    This post isn't about VFTW nor DialIdol, but I think it is somewhat similar. I posted about this a few weeks ago in the spoiler section, but it seems to fit here better.

    There is a group called Idol Democracy, which has a little over 1000 people participating in a weekly poll of who they would vote for if they only had one vote. I know that is a terribly small sampling, but I still find the results interesting. They appear to fluctuate based on the contestants performances. Crystal has been on top every week, but who comes in after her varies every week. This is the voting for this week:

    Crystal 30.1%
    Casey 13.6%
    Katie 11.3%
    Michael 10.3%
    Lee 9.7%
    Siobhan 9.5%
    Tim 6.4%
    Andrew 5.4%
    Aaron 3.8%

    If anyone is interested, here are last week’s results:
    Crystal 29.2%
    Lee 14.5%
    Casey 10.4%
    Katie 9.1%
    Michael 8.8%
    Siobhan 7.4%
    Andrew 6.4%
    Tim 5.5%
    Didi 4.8%
    Aaron 3.8%
    Interesting - Crystal way out front, then basically the same group both weeks in the middle, essentially not separated by much, if you take into account margin of error, then the group trailing behind. I think that shows that at this point, most voters are committed to their favorite(s), and it's not as much about individual performances - these will only shift votes so far. Maybe really improved (or worsened) performances over a few weeks would make more of a difference.

  5. #35
    Urban Renewal - a new era BuckeyeAddict's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by I'm MEL;3872339;
    Interesting - Crystal way out front, then basically the same group both weeks in the middle, essentially not separated by much, if you take into account margin of error, then the group trailing behind. I think that shows that at this point, most voters are committed to their favorite(s), and it's not as much about individual performances - these will only shift votes so far. Maybe really improved (or worsened) performances over a few weeks would make more of a difference.
    The reason why I thought the performances did make a difference is because the first week, Crystal and Siobhan were running almost neck and neck, leaving everyone else out in the dust. Since then, Siobhan has taken a nosedive. And Lee's popularity has increased overall.

    Results from 3/16/10
    Crystal 22.0%
    Siobhan 19.0%
    Michael 8.1%
    Casey 8.0%
    Katie 7.7%
    Lee 6.1%
    Lacey 5.8% (eliminated)
    Didi 5.0%
    Andrew 4.9%
    Aaron 4.8%
    Tim 4.4%
    Paige 4.3%

    Results from 3/23/10
    Crystal 34.4%
    Siobhan 10.7%
    Katie 9.9%
    Casey 8.2%
    Michael 6.7%
    Tim 5.9%
    Lee 5.6%
    Didi 5.2%
    Andrew 4.8%
    Aaron 4.5%
    Paige 4.0% (eliminated)

  6. #36
    Ruben is "Soulful" pillbeam's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomers;3872334;
    I am not quite sure how it impacts on American Idol, but I have found that the Raw Scores are the better and closer indicator on Dancing with the Stars.
    Don't ask me why because because I don't understand all the technicalities involved, but somebody on that board tipped us on that sometime ago, and while it isn't perfect, it comes fairly close.
    Check the bottom 3 on the Raw Scores and see how close it comes to the bottom 3 that are actually announced.
    Thanks, Bloomers, I''ll check out the raw scores.

    And thanks, Buckeye, for that list. It looks pretty revealing and makes sense in terms of the performances.
    ==
    "Tons of surprises, but it wouldn't be 'American Idol' without it, would it?" Cowell told MTV News. "At the end of the day, I could go out and find 12 great singers, but that's kind of boring. The fact that there's people there who shouldn't be there makes it 'American Idol.' "

  7. #37
    FORT Fogey norealityhere's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    They showed Andrew going home last night. No mention, at all, of Mike.
    To Thine Own Self Be True

  8. #38
    FORT Fogey MamaAmyG's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    i enjoy dialidol a lot, and have tried my best to use my mathematics degree to understand its implementation.

    the biggest weakness i keep coming back to regarding dialidol is sample size/demographic. looking at the map that shows the raw data by state, you can see that there are about 10 whole states where no votes were cast. about half the states contribute less than 1000 votes of raw data, and even the larger states contribute less than 5000 votes of raw data. california and new york contribute the most, but they are less than 10000 votes each. so they system is based on usually less than 100,000 data points, when there are several million votes cast every night. i forget exactly how many they tout, but somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 million during a finale i think?

    anyway, that alone makes it hugely inaccurate, even though they are tracking the "busy percentage." so while the raw data may have a tendency to be closer to accurate, that tendency is nothing more than luck. i would argue that even the people dialidol guarantees as safe should be viewed as most-likely-but-not-definitely safe.

    another thing to keep in mind with dialidol is how their data is collected. to run dialidol, you need an internet connection of course, to report your data. ok, check. you also need a phone modem inside your computer to actually do the voting. huh... i haven't had a computer that is also connected to a phone line for... shoot it's been about 10 years actually. but for every math nerd that is running dialidol to try and gather results, there are thousands of teeny boppers texting votes by the thousand for the cutest guy left, if you know what i mean.

    anyway, food for thought, and i would love to discuss how the program works with anyone, including those who understand it differently and can better educate me on it. it's fascinated me since i discovered it in i think season 4.
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  9. #39
    FORT Fogey MamaAmyG's Avatar
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by norealityhere;3872992;
    They showed Andrew going home last night. No mention, at all, of Mike.
    while i'm posting, just a quick correction.

    for tuesday night's performances, they showed that crystal and lee would survive until next week. that is all.

    anyone out of the remaining contestants was equally likely to be going home, including mike.

    mike was no safer than andrew, who was no less safe than aaron, who was no more safe than tim, etc etc etc
    _(Moo!)

  10. #40
    FORT Fogey
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    Re: DialIdol/Vote For the Worst Season 9 *possible spoilers*

    Quote Originally Posted by MamaAmyG;3872999;
    i enjoy dialidol a lot, and have tried my best to use my mathematics degree to understand its implementation.
    Another site you might like from a math perspective is What Not To Sing. This site has nothing to do with voting, but every week they sample various Idol internet sites and produce a performance score for how the Idolsphere viewed each person's performance. They also record a standard deviation to represent the range of opinions. Every so often they will aggregate that data to look at various questions. For example, last year they did an article on how does gender and race affect voting. I think you might find it interesting.

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