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Thread: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

  1. #21
    Total Gleek BuckeyeGal007's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    Ruben was dropped (at least at one point in time) by his label, Harmony!

    I think both Davids will have support from all aspects, win or lose. The only disadvantage with David Archuleta losing is that he is largly backed by a fickle tween fanbase who change hearthrobs as often as they change their ringtones. If he wins, TPTB and Archie can cash in on tween market and maybe have a substantial career (a la Donny Osmond, David Cassidy) where he'll be hot for a while, go away for a while, then make a comeback when he's older. If he doesn't win, some of his fickle fanbase may jump ship and while he'll see plenty of records, I could see him falling into the "One Hit Boy Wonder" category. David Cook's fanbase are made up of a maturer audience, who are likely to be a fan until the bitter end (think Bon Jovi, ect.). I see David Cook as having the longevity factor. The pop/rock/alternative market is friendly to newcomers right now, so win or lose, he's going to have a great career. Heck, I'll go see him play at bars if he so chooses that as his venue.
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  2. #22
    You call that MUSIC!!?? Ellender's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    I thought Ruben had been dropped from J Records but resigned to another, smaller RMG label.

  3. #23
    You call that MUSIC!!?? Ellender's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Harmony2000;3006679;
    Thanks for the list Ellender, its interesting seeing it all lined up like that. However, only two winners have gone on to huge success while the others? Not so much so.
    I think it's a question of what constitutes "huge success." Carrie and Kelly are clearly the hugest successes in terms of CD sales and probably airplay too.
    But Ruben has sold over 3 million CDs, had some radio hits and gotten recognition for his Gospel album. Fantasia's debut album was essentially double platinum, her autobiographical book and movie did well, and she got great reviews for her work on Broadway.
    In the context of all the artists out there competing for the public's attention and money, I'd say all 4 of them have been pretty successful. Taylor, who hasn't been "out of the gate" from Idol very long, has a platinum RMG debut album - and he's the one winner AI has not really supported, but he did get some major TV appearances just by being the new "Idol."

    If look at all the Idol graduates, Carrie, Kelly, Chris D., and Jennifer Hudson have all won major entertainment industry awards, but J-Hud pretty much earned hers without help from AI (except maybe in getting the audition).
    Clay has sold over 5 million albums and done about 6 successful solo concert tours (in addition to the huge support he got in the AI2 tour and his Independent Tour with Kelly); his first 4 albums all debuted in the top 5 on Billboard's 200 Albums chart. His solo tours have had little if any support from the Idol people, but the huge album sales for his debut album and even the Christmas album probably did reflect the initial support he got from the Idol folks (with the areas of non-support noted above). As Clay's support from American Idol waned, RCA's support for his recording career also seemed to flounder. I think there's no question that it's a disadvantage to continue to be associated with AI (as in "American Idol runner-up Clay Aiken") but not having that franchise embrace you and promote you as one of their stars. I think Taylor shares that burden with Clay.

  4. #24
    Likes Scottish Vikings! talldede's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    This season will have two winners. If Archie wins, he will do the obligatory media circuit as the 'winner' of AI, but I see David Cook getting equal time if not more media appearances simply because he is the better interview and far more entertaining.

    Both will have full AI backing and promotion behind them.

    However, I will still vote the entire 4 hours for David Cook!

  5. #25
    FORT Fogey
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ellender;3006085;
    First, I think it's always an advantage to win. It's not like the Miss America Pageant where you have to go around fulfilling your "duties" for a year while wearing a tiara. And if there's any stigma to winning (say, for a rocker), I think if you've been on the show for a couple months, you've already got that.
    But considering the post-Idol careers of various former AI contestants and how they've been treated by the Idol execs, I think being supported by the AI people is even more important than actually winning. Look at a few examples:
    - Kelly Clarkson...
    - Tamyra Gray...
    - Justin Guarini...
    - Ruben Studdard...
    - Clay Aiken...
    - Taylor Hicks...
    - Kellie Pickler...
    - Carrie Underwood...
    - Bo Bice...
    - Diana DeGarmo...
    - Jennifer Hudson:...
    - Katharine McPhee...
    - Jordin Sparks and Blake Lewis:...
    Ahhh... Couldn't you just see Cookie in a tiara with his electric guitar "fulfilling his duties".

    Great recap, BTW. My only beef is that AI ain't the only producers on the block. No need for runners-up to play victim because Nigel won't write a big enough check. Do TV shows, commercials, tour in Japan, do Broadway, release viral videos in the Internet, host a segment on Access Hollywood, etc. Record producers don't have the distribution muscle they had when AI first started.

    Fans and name recognition are worth their weight in gold. Baby Elmo and Cookie have that now. The AI brand has been very good to them - so much so that they don't need it anymore to continue their careers.

  6. #26
    You call that MUSIC!!?? Ellender's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    Quote Originally Posted by TopCatDC;3008361;
    Ahhh... Couldn't you just see Cookie in a tiara with his electric guitar "fulfilling his duties".

    Quote Originally Posted by TopCatDC;3008361;
    ... No need for runners-up to play victim because Nigel won't write a big enough check. Do TV shows, commercials, tour in Japan, do Broadway, release viral videos in the Internet, host a segment on Access Hollywood, etc. Record producers don't have the distribution muscle they had when AI first started.
    Yeah, some of the other "losers" have done pretty well outside of the CD sales area (e.g., Kim Caldwell's sportcasting job and TV Guide hosting job); Kim Locke being a Jenny Craig spokesman. But some of these options were not available to contestants from the first few seasons. Clay (being under contract to RMG, as runner-up) has to this day not been allowed to tour internationally. And the internet viral videos thing wasn't much of an option in 2004 or 2005. Plus, I think 19E has greatly loosened their stranglehold on the non-winner top 10 finalists over the years, giving them much greater latitude to sign record contracts right after their season and release albums without waiting for the RMG-signed grads to release theirs.

    Fans and name recognition are worth their weight in gold. Baby Elmo and Cookie have that now. The AI brand has been very good to them - so much so that they don't need it anymore to continue their careers.
    Oh, I think other AI7-ers, e.g., Jason Castro, have a good start on their careers too, with that name/face recognition and built up fan base.

  7. #27
    You call that MUSIC!!?? Ellender's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    My Own Personal Favorites (I'm combining some)
    2nd/3rd/4th Place: Clay Aiken, then Bo Bice, then Melinda Doolittle

    5th Place: George Huff

    6th Place: Carly Smithson

    7th Place: Jennifer Hudson

    8th Place: Nadia Turner

    9th Place: Toss-up betweenNikko Smith and Mandisa Hundley

    10th Place: Probably a toss-up between Chikeze and Chris Sligh, but I also thought Amy and Jessica got the boot way too early.

    Best of the Rest: Vanessa Olivarez

    Rankings in terms of Post-Idol Commercial Success/Stardom

    2nd Place: Clay Aiken (Duh!)

    3rd Place: Kim Locke, so far, but Elliot may pass her in a few months

    4th Place: Chris Daughtry (again, Duh!) - but Josh Gracin has left the others in the dust so far, too

    5th Place: RJ Helton, George Huff, and Phil Stacey may be tied here, but Phil's CD is just out - too soon to tell

    6th Place: Kellie Pickler seems to be walking away with this one

    7th Place : Jennifer Hudson (another Duh!) - but Kim Caldwell's been pretty visible too

    8th Place: Bucky Covington is the only one I know of who's made a splash in the industry - he's known in country music

    9th Place: Corey Clark's the best known (infamous), but Mandisa has had some success in Gospel music

    10th Place: Chris Sligh and Chikezie are probably the closest to household names now, they were on the show the most recently, but Chris is the only one whose CD(s) I know anything about.

    Best of the Rest: Hmm. Melissa's on some high-visibility TV ads, Mikalah's done some entertainment TV hosting, and Vanessa Olivarez has had some success as a recording artist (outside the US, I think). None of the others' names or faces are probably remembered by the public.

  8. #28
    FORT Fanatic scsi commando's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    No. Only 1 winner. Because he will win that million dollar deal and have major label/studio backing.

  9. #29
    FORT Fogey
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    In the past I have had the notion that a rocker is probably better with second place due to the nature of rock fans who may poo poo the American Idol winner association. I am not sure that is true anymore, if it ever was. I don't know what the winners contract looks like but I do remember Kelly trying to get out of it. They own you for a period of time and that may not serve Cooke but would benefit Archie, certainly if I stick with this train of thought.

    I now think that winning is the best position to be in. And it is important to own the connection with your head held high, though. Jennifer Hudson has become arrogant and self absorbed. She tries to deny any association with the show and has only said, once, that AI was a stepping stone for her. Well, it was, but it is a lot more than just an ordinary stone.

    Cooke will be successful no matter what. I am not an Archie fan so I cannot speculate on how he will do. If I had to guess, winning or second place will give him a moderate amount of success but he will fade from view.

  10. #30
    FORT Fogey mbcrowder's Avatar
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    Re: Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

    Quote Originally Posted by shoepie;3013242;
    In the past I have had the notion that a rocker is probably better with second place due to the nature of rock fans who may poo poo the American Idol winner association. I am not sure that is true anymore, if it ever was. I don't know what the winners contract looks like but I do remember Kelly trying to get out of it. They own you for a period of time and that may not serve Cooke but would benefit Archie, certainly if I stick with this train of thought.
    They own you for a period of time whether you win or lose.

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