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Thread: Ruben/Clay Album Dates Postponed/Separated

  1. #161
    FORT Newbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grisabella
    3. "Both guys faced that same problem, and if it was random, as you say, then there is no reason to believe that they didn't face it equally."
    Yes. By definition, if it was "random," they DID face it equally.


    actually, by defination if it was "random", then there is no evidence that they DIDN'T face it equally. Not the other way round


    putting all this into plain English, all I'm saying is that even if EXACTLY the same number of votes were ATTEMPTED for Clay as for Ruben, out of the roughly 24,000,000 successful votes, an ACTUAL vote discrepancy of 134,000 in one direction or the other could VERY EASILY occur. The random factors that constitute "noise" include the fact that not all completed calls are the same length, phone systems are more overloaded in some areas than others, and the fans of Clay and Ruben are not evenly distributed across calling areas.
    So those 134,000 votes are really not worth much as evidence that more votes were attempted for Ruben than for Clay. They don't really indicate that if there had been enough phone lines open to handle all attempted calls, Ruben would have received more votes.


    yes, I quite agree. But that is not a statistical tie.


    As to "... on pitch, but... didn't HIT it," that's just semantics.


    not so. There is much much more to singing that being in tune. Clay was in tune, but he did not hit the note. I can't even really believe that people are arguing it wasn't a mistake. If clay did it intentionally then why did he sing it differently the second time round. This has me perplexed

  2. #162
    On My Way Here Grisabella's Avatar
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    We've GOT to stop meeting this way!! :D

    1. "Random" error, by definition, means the error is equally likely to occur on the one side as the other (when we're talking about 2 alternatives).

    2. If we COULD assume that getting a wrong number, busy signal, or tech-glitch produced disconnect, etc., was as likely for attempted Clay votes as for attempted Ruben votes, then the votes that actually got through on May 20 were about as "scientific" a sample of the population (attempted votes) as one could ever hope for. In that case, "statistical tie" is the perfect description of what happened.

    We can't quite assume that, of course. Partly because we don't know how many votes were text messaged. Also because, to the extent that busy signals reflected an overload of attempted votes for a particular contestant (e.g., Clay), rather than trunk line overload, the contestant whose lines were more "clogged" with attempted votes is penalized MORE by the inadequacy of the phone lines than the other is.
    (Since I've heard and read a lot more about Clay fans encountering endless busy signals and erroneous disconnect messages than I have Ruben fans, I'm giving Ruben's camp the benefit of the doubt by goint with the assumption that every caller had an equal chance of their call not going through.)

    3. Yes, semantics. Clay hit the note dead on, but he did not have adequate breath support for the note to sound unbroken. So it was an interrupted tone, kind of like my dial tone is when I have a Voice Mail message waiting.
    It probably was a mistake. He sang it differently the second time round because he thought it sounded better this way, and because he took care to support the note with more breath.


    Anyway, I'm done. If you want to have the last word, NZ_Idol, be my guest. We're prob'ly putting everyone to sleep with our academic arguments, anyway!

    BTW, my brother and his wife tell me you've got a gorgeous country down there!
    Last edited by Grisabella; 07-16-2003 at 02:01 AM.
    Dogs have owners. Cats have staff. ;-D

  3. #163
    On My Way Here Grisabella's Avatar
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    Back to the main topic:
    I heard on Access Hollywood or MTV or ET (I forget which) that Ruben's album is due out August 26 and Clay's will be released 2 weeks later.
    That's great news, if true. It means both will be out before the middle of September!
    Dogs have owners. Cats have staff. ;-D

  4. #164
    eternal optimist Shazzer's Avatar
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    I can't wait to buy both albums! I really liked Ruben's newest single (I wish there was a clip of it posted somewhere) and I can't wait for Clay's cd.
    "If you're like me, you have a 'been there, done that' attitude when it comes to paleolithic paleontology." - Jon Stewart

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  5. #165
    On My Way Here Grisabella's Avatar
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    Any new dope on actual release dates for the guys' albums?
    Dogs have owners. Cats have staff. ;-D

  6. #166
    Daphne
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grisabella
    Any new dope on actual release dates for the guys' albums?
    All I heard is that it might be sometime in September.
    Last edited by Daphne; 07-27-2003 at 10:50 AM.

  7. #167
    FORT Fogey graycat11's Avatar
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    I hope both of their albums are released soon. September is a long way off.


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