Tell Me What You Think - To Win Or Not To Win? That Is The Question

[brierpatch]

Winning is better than not winning.

For some, winning is the only possible successful outcome, while others are able to navigate their career successfully without the win, although it can be a steeper climb. For instance, Kat would be in a very different place right now had she won. Clay has become very successful, but it took longer to fully build up his career than it may have had he won.

The person who will receive the most benefits by winning is Archie - he needs the strong-handed career guidance that comes with the win, and is likely to flounder if he doesn't get this help. Winning is everything to DA's career - 2nd place won't do it for him.

DC would also benefit from winning, but has a better chance of succeeding at 2nd place than DA does. He has a strong notion of where he wants to go artistically and how to market himself. 19E has a strong financial reason to promote DC's career, so would probably get the assistance he needs to succeed if he comes in 2nd. This doesn't mean that it's not better to win - just that it is not necessarily the kiss of death for him to come in second.

[razorbacker]

In the past I have had the notion that a rocker is probably better with second place due to the nature of rock fans who may poo poo the American Idol winner association. I am not sure that is true anymore, if it ever was. I don't know what the winners contract looks like but I do remember Kelly trying to get out of it. They own you for a period of time and that may not serve Cooke but would benefit Archie, certainly if I stick with this train of thought.

I now think that winning is the best position to be in. And it is important to own the connection with your head held high, though. Jennifer Hudson has become arrogant and self absorbed. She tries to deny any association with the show and has only said, once, that AI was a stepping stone for her. Well, it was, but it is a lot more than just an ordinary stone.

Cooke will be successful no matter what. I am not an Archie fan so I cannot speculate on how he will do. If I had to guess, winning or second place will give him a moderate amount of success but he will fade from view.

Kelly tried & did get out of her management contract. Not her recording contract. Two different things.

[Ellender]

Well, Clay was the first to get out of his 19M management contract, and not being the winner may have made that easier. Some thought - maybe some still do - that was a smart move and showed he was better off not winning.
But I think the Idol people never really forgave him (especially after Kelly followed his lead), and I think they've been extracting their revenge in various ways ever since then (early 2004). I think you can see it very plainly now in the lack of support for his latest album (which reportedly is his best ever), including not giving him a spot on the AI7 show to do a song from it and promote it.

brierpatch[/B]]Clay has become very successful, but it took longer to fully build up his career than it may have had he won.

Yes and no. Clay's officially losing may not have set back his initial sales, since Idol chose to "continue the competition" by releasing his single the same day as Ruben's and since they eventually let him go ahead and release his already-completed album before Ruben's. The Idol people did kind of support him in 2003 and early 2004, because he was such a crowd draw and cash cow. But I think the lack of support from the Idol people has resulted in his career waning instead of continuing its initial sharp rise.

In my mind, it seems Clay would have been much better off if he'd officially won.