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Thread: Future TARs - A Rather Lengthy Analysis

  1. #1
    Premium Member CantGetEnufTAR's Avatar
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    May 2003

    Future TARs - A Rather Lengthy Analysis

    If you thought my first post was long-winded...you better go grab a snack, sit down, and get comfy for this one.......

    First I will rattle off a bunch of stats that I have compiled from various sources over the past SEVERAL months.

    Regarding TAR1. I know nothing of whatever (if any) application process was used. I ASSUME it may have been a smaller selection process. Here is why... The eleven selected teams were geographically distributed as follows--3 LA area, 2 Dallas area (within 90 miles), 1 Houston area, and 5 from NY area (within 110 miles). So, I assume it maybe was a LA / Dallas / NY contestant search that occurred. I say this only because TAR2-3-4 contestants have all been more geographically dispersed in or around the several "interview" cities. For TAR1 maybe there was no application process, and they just toured to those 3 cities, and did initial interviews at malls or somewhere, then later called finalists to LA. Pure speculation on my part.

    So, I start my application analysis with TAR2. Another note--I once read something referring to Surv & TAR apps being handled / processed by some of the same people, so they have tried to not overlap them more than necessary (at least more recently anyway). This may have been nothing more than rumor or speculation but it seems to be what has been happening, so decide for yourself.

    --- Application history (by calendar) (along with Survivor info) ---
    Summer 2001
    Surv4 started July 2, 2001 and due July 27, 2001 (4 weeks)
    TAR2 started July 2, 2001 and due August 3, 2001 (5 weeks)
    So, TAR overlapped with Surv substantially
    About 22 weeks later...

    Winter 2002
    Surv5 started January 8, 2002 and due February 15, 2002 (5 weeks)
    About 8 weeks later...
    TAR3 started April 11, 2002 and due May 8, 2002 (4 weeks)
    About 4 weeks later...

    Summer 2002
    Surv6 started June 6, 2002 and due July 3, 2002 (4 weeks)
    About 5 weeks later...
    TAR4 started August 9, 2002 and due September 20, 2002 (6 weeks)
    About 12 weeks later...

    Winter 2003
    Surv7 started December 13, 2002 and due February 11, 2003 (8 weeks)
    TAR5 "skipped"

    Summer 2003
    S8 started May 9, 2003 and due July 9, 2003 (8 weeks)
    TAR5 "unknown"

    --- Production History (by TAR season) ---
    Apps unknown
    Race started March 8, 2001 and ended April 8, 2001
    Show premiered September 5, 2001
    So, dividing the time (in months) into the following categories, Applications -- Selection / Preparation -- Racing -- Postrace Editing, we get.......
    ? - ? - 1 - 5

    Apps started July 2, 2001 and due August 3, 2001
    Race started January 7, 2002 and ended February 3, 2002
    Show premiered March 11, 2002
    Similar to above, we get....... 1 - 5 - 1 - 1

    Apps started April 11, 2002 and due May 8, 2002
    Race started August 12, 2002 and ended September 8, 2002
    Show premiered October 2, 2002
    Similar to above, we get....... 1 - 3 - 1 - 1

    Apps started August 9, 2002 and due September 20, 2002
    Race started January ??, 2003 (speculated 20th) and ended February ??, 2003
    Show premiered FINALLY on May 29, 2003, but it is widely believed it was ready FAR earlier
    So, for argument's sake, let's use a date similar to TAR2, say March 11, 2003
    Similar to above, we then get....... 1.5 - 4 - 1 - 1

    --- How about a summary of all of this ---
    Survivor has settled into a pattern for their apps, due mid-February and early-July
    TAR apps start 5 - 8 weeks after Surv due (judging only by TAR3-4)
    TAR apps are taken for 4 - 6 weeks
    Then 3 - 5 months later the Racing actually begins
    The Racing lasts for 1 month
    The show is ready for premiere about 1 month after end of Racing

    --- What the heck does all of this mean ---
    From the date TAR first announces apps, it has taken 6 - 8 months before it has premiered. If they were to "rush" the process, I imagine it could be done in say 3 weeks for apps, 10 weeks for selection & preparation, 4 weeks racing, and 3 weeks post-race editing, for a total of 20 weeks, or about 5 months, which is not much faster than they have been doing it.

    --- Is TAR5 in Fall 2003 possible ---
    No, because that schedule starts in the range of early-September 2003 to early-October 2003, which is only 3 - 4 months away.

    --- How about TAR5 in Spring 2004 ---
    Sure. Assume a premiere of early-March 2004. Apps would need to be started 6 - 8 months before that, which would be in the range of early-July 2003 to early-September 2003. Note that if TAR4 runs 13 straight weeks, its finale would be August 21, 2003, so they could take apps during the mid- to late-episodes of TAR4. Also, note that current Surv8 apps are due July 9, 2003. So, they could still wait until after those are due, take a few weeks off, and begin TAR5 apps.

    --- And, what if they want to just wait until Summer 2004 for TAR5 ---
    Well, assume June 1, 2004 is the premiere. Go backwards 6 - 8 months and you are in the range of October 1, 2003 to December 1, 2003. That would be when they would need to start taking TAR5 apps. Since Surv has been starting apps mid-December to early-January, they would probably want the TAR5 apps due a few weeks before they would start the next Surv (S9) apps. So, they would probably start TAR5 apps closer to the beginning of that range, ie October 1, 2003.

    --- Although TAR is the BEST show on, maybe its not destined to be a dedicated, regular, twice-a-year show like Survivor ---
    So, here is my solution. CBS still makes and shows two TARs every year.

    The first TAR each year is ready to premiere by each Fall, but CBS waits and plugs it in wherever something fails, as they know some shows will. If for some reason they cannot find a place to plug it in by mid-February (doubtful, but I guess possible), then they could show it on one of the other Viacom (CBS parent) channels. It could go to their other broadcast channel UPN, or to one of their SEVERAL cable channels. The fans would find it wherever it is. But, they need to show it SOMEWHERE before the end of the Spring TV season, because...

    The second TAR each year is ready to premiere by Summer just like TAR4 did.

    Here is how all of this would work---
    Whenever the "Fall/Spring plug-in" Race airs they would take apps for the NEXT "Fall/Spring plug-in" Race. The "plug-in" Race would always air sometime between October and May, so they would be able to take apps during the Race and still avoid overlapping with the Surv apps that occur during the December / January / February time. As long as they had the NEXT Race apps due no later than mid-April, then selections & preparations could last until mid-August, the racing until mid-September, and still be ready to premiere (whenever needed) the NEXT "plug in" Race by mid-October.

    Whenever the "Summer" Race airs they would take apps for the NEXT "Summer" Race. They would take them from late-July to early-September (not interfering with the June / July Surv apps), selections & preparations could go until mid-March or later, racing needs to finished by late-April, ready to premiere by June 1.

    So, we would get two TARs each year. The first one shows sometime during the Fall / Spring schedule, the second during the Summer. They may be spaced far apart, or almost back-to-back, depending on when the Fall/Spring one actually airs.

    And the BEST PART is, it's not too late for CBS to start this strategy NOW---
    They need to start taking apps a few weeks after Surv8 apps are due, so around late-July 2003, right smack in the middle of TAR4. Take them until late-August 2003. But, *AND HERE IS THE CATCH*, they simultaneously do selections & preparations for TWO races at once, selecting 24 teams instead of 12.

    The 12 chosen for TAR5 would then Race from about late-November 2003 until late-December 2003, and TAR5 is ready to premiere late-January 2004 or later (wherever CBS needs it). Note that during the airing of TAR5, they get back on the normal schedule outlined above and take apps for TAR7, which will be the plug-in Race for during the Fall 2004 / Spring 2005 schedule.

    Then the 12 (already) chosen for TAR6 could race anytime up until about a April 1, 2004 start (meaning a May 1, 2004 finish), so it could be ready for Summer 2004. During TAR6 they take apps for TAR8 (Summer 2005).

    CBS, are you listening, did you follow all of that?
    (my first smily, ahhhh)

  2. #2
    Ready? haejin's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    New York City
    Props to you!!! Although I might have to re-read this to get a more complete understanding....
    Gustav Holst was right!

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