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Thread: Episode 11 ~ Pre-Show Speculations

  1. #11

    What will likely happen next

    People speculate using all kinds of theories, the most popular seem to be facetime [how often does a same team keep showing up] and who is mentioned in preview. My view based on past record is that these theories are more like a superstition than anything else. The facetime theory doesn't make much sense in 6 or 7 out of the 8 teams eliminated in TAR4. Looking at all the teams eliminated, with the exception of Tian/Jaree and Millie/Chuck, the other teams were barely shown if at all even prior to their elimination. The outing of NFL Wives came as a total surprise because if you look at episode 5, except the car accident, they were barely on the screen at all. Millie/Chuck got quite a bit of facetime most of the time but if we actually count, they certainly got less than Reichen/Chip, by far the couple that CBS 'exploited' the most yet the guys are still in but not the Virgins. Look at Episode 8, from Reichen's confession, stucked in Cochin, to their moment of blessing, the camera is all over them from beginning to the end. Yet, the next team to got was Millie/Chuck. The facetime theory just doesn't make much sense because it also implies CBS would deliberately show boring things and/or people just because someone is about to be booted. The amount of time spent on showing a particular team has not much bearing on the success. Past winners aren’t always the most shown or the least shown teams. Flo would have been long gone if Facetime theory applied. Some said the winners of TAR1 were barely shown. Tian and Jaree were shown much more than the NFL Wives, but the Supremes got booted first. All these inconsistencies show that Facetime is not a reliable method because it contradicts the purpose of the show is to sell and grab as many viewers as possible. Clearly, CBS shows teams where there are drama and contents to be seen such as the fight of Models, Kelly and Jon bickering as early as episode 2 [yet they are still in] or Millie VS. Chuck.

    Another theory – episode’s title/quote, if someone said the title, then they must be safe. I found there is no proof for that Tangerine got booted yet they were the ones being quoted. Rather, I find the quotes chosen were merely interesting/catching sentences and has no hint or bearing on the outcome of episode. The purpose was just to give a catching title to the episode, nothing more. Trying to get hints out of it would be quite a stretch just like what David said about priestess and his grand-mother or Jon’s “That’s my face, hit my face…”

    Preview images on TV and Internet + the teasers. These are probably the more relevant hints of all. But do they explicitly avoid the winners or losers of the upcoming episode? More often that not, the losers are not mentioned in the previews. Sometimes, the preview also tries to exaggerate incidents to make them interesting. If you watch the previews, Reichen and Chip would be long gone by now – “would they live to regret it”, “grounded while others fly out”, “holy crap”, “Oh my God”, “Hurry!” “Would Reichen swim with shark?” etc. etc. It’s hard to find another team being portrayed in such miserable state almost every episode. But then Millie/Chuck were mentioned as being lost in the forest when they got booted. Tian/Jaree’s elimination was a big surprise to most people because they were shown the in the video preview, got quoted and mentioned in the teasers while most others received no foreshadowing of any kind like the Supremes, which surprised many people as well. Rather, I am going back to my theory that CBS would show things that would create interests. In leg 7 and leg 9 where there was a race between 2 teams for the pit stop, they were mentioned. Note they never said who were involved but they would let us know when there was a close call because there is nothing more exciting than a race separated by seconds. So what does it mean? I don’t think CBS intentionally avoids the winners or the losers in a preview, I think they just pick passages that would create the most interests even if it meant to hint who was going to lose. Based on that, I say leg 11 is not going to be a close call. Otherwise, CBS would have loved to lead us to think it would be a mad dash for the pit stop between 2 or 3 teams. Rather since it hints a penalty, it might mean that the last team to arrive is so far behind that a penalty on one of the earlier team wasn’t bad enough to change the result.

    If this is the case, chances look good for Kelly/Jon and Reichen/Chip who seemed to be neck at neck during most part of the next leg. For the Clowns and the Goats, either one is totally leading, the other could be trailing quite badly. I maintain that no one goes for the FF because while travelling in the airport, Jon (Clown) was commenting how stressed he is and we saw no other team with him so they might have split with the others. Not knowing where others are, it would be very risky to go for the FF. The Goats were shown in a taxi, Jeff asking the driver to go even faster. Since the background is daylight and they wear shorts, it’s only logical to assume they have got into Australia. Their reactions don’t look like someone who just got FF. Also, the preview seems to hint Reichen is the first one doing the Roadblock if you read between the lines or else he would have known there are sharks in there. We also see a clip of Kelly in front of the aquarium along with Chip. Kelly wouldn’t be waiting there if they have already completed the task. We also saw a clip of Chip finishing the rope-climb detour and seemed to be quite happy and relief. If they were in trouble, I think he would be rushing. The Goats were barely shown if ever on teasers because they are boring. I can’t think of another time when the name of David/Jeff ever appeared on a teaser. I recall Kelly/Jon, Jon/Al, Reichen/Chip but never David and Jeff. The closest they ever come to was David being quoted for an episode title. Who knows?

    I think approaching an episode prediction is best using logic and analyze the preview images as opposed to the teasers. The teasers are more misleading. But in any case, superstition such as facetime is not reliable. Just look at why people have no problem in predicting that Steve/Dave wasn’t going to last long because it was logical to assume they couldn’t keep up. Judging from the performance of all 4 teams in the 5 first legs (in Europe) where language barrier was limited like they will face in Australia, Jon/Al did better than Reichen/Chip 3-2, the guys also did better than Kelly/Jon 3-2 and the JoKe team in turn did better than the Goats 3-2. The average placing of the 4 teams have Reichen/Chip on top with a factor of 3, JoKe and Clowns have a rating of 4 while the Goats are dead last with 5. Reichen/Chip also managed the best in countries where language/culture pose a problem maybe thanks largely to Chip. From Leg 6 to 10, with the exception of Leg 7 where they almost got eliminated due to a bad taxi, 4 out of 5 legs for them were 1 and 2nd spots with each of the 2nd place finished only missed by a few seconds to a few minutes at best in leg 6, 8 and 10. That’s amazing considering they could have been the winners of leg 6, 8, 9 and 10 easily. Obviously, this is the team to beat. So logic and past record suggest a Goat elimination in leg 11 but it might be a fight between Kelly/Jon and David/Jeff at the end.

  2. #12
    (((hugs)) to you Tssutroi for your brilliant detective work...

    let me run my own "theory" which has proven well in the past tho..

    In show like TAR and Survivor which are pre taped, as opposed to real time, like BB, I find the "winners" are the ones MOST silent and hidden after the race...protecting their payoff..

    the ones with NO articles in local papers, no relatives posting on board, no pics of them at premiere etc...the "15 minutes of fame" mongers like Josh are the ones predictably gone..

    This year the silent ones are the goats and j/k...and I think they will be the top 2...

    interesting...the ONLY thing I found on Jon...and he lives in my area s florida...was a small obscure article in business/real estate paper that said his employers wanted to throw a premiere party..but cbs nixed it !!

    at the same time, they let the nfl's throw a party for a bunch of em in vegas?? and it turns out all the ones at the party did not make the top 4 ..hmmmm...

    I think if you are "preserving" your win you keep out of the media...remember we also pretty much have figured out the 2nd place team takes home a nice chunk of change too...we have mostly heard 75K for 2nd place...

    have you given this idea/conjuncture/theory any thought?? anyone else??

    *and..btw...the clowns cousin post on aol...there have been clown sightings, people talking to them, articles on the cannonball..

    and of course chippendale sightings, nice pics and postings from relatives, pics of reichen, website etc...

    hmmm...one last thought...the CBS bios mysteriously changed...were "cleaned up" for both the goats and Jon...check the first page of their threads here on the fort for the original...where one of the goats listed sex as hobby, and selling breast implants as career...changed to "selling medical devices"...jons bio also "cleaned up">?>>???

  3. #13
    Tian talks about Kelly and Jon all the time on Sucks board. In fact, they all live in Miami and by the sound of it, it doesn't feel like team JoKe got 1 million dollar richer. Also, Millie and Chuck's reactions on the Early show also hints that team JoKe didnt' win because the way Chuck back-stabbed them, you don't see that to a 1st place finishing team just like Ian wouldnt' bad mouth Flo.

  4. #14
    Articles about Reichen and Chip are mainly because people want to know about them and the presence of Reichen's mom has no bearing because she doesn't know who wins, Reichen didn't tell her. She came here by her own will. David and Jeff are not talked about if at all. But then, it could be just because they are boring. CBS doesnt' show them a lot either. But performance wise, this team is weakest. It would be illogical to give them a high winning chance. Reichen/Chip almost can't hide anything even if they wanted to - they are just too popular, looking at the threads and people who went digging articles pre-TAR, photos, bios, sighting in L.A. and etc. I say even if they hide in Antartica, people would track them down and find them.

  5. #15
    Yes...but I have only read a bit from tian ..namely that they went there to j/k place to watch tar last week...I havent seen her say much else...

    I thought the virgins were pretty quiet about j/k actually...

    as for the goats...not a peep from them???

  6. #16
    FORT Regular
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    New Zealand
    If you think about the TV preview it has reichen in moderate peril in the shark tank, presumably the roadblock for this leg of the race. If you remember back to a preview for leg11 season 3 it showed ken and gerad having severe diffculties with the push trolley roadblock before the pit stop. I could possibly be a thing that the peril shown could mean they are safe?

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