# Thread: 7/6 Show Discussion **Spoilers**

1. Oh god what have I started? Actually, I was wrong, I'm looking at it from the "long run" standpoint, i.e. according to my logic, if you pick one number each time and spin it 37 times, you will win once. That was obviously not the correct model for this situation, I believe the correct way to calculate is 1 - (32/37)^4 = 44% which someone mentioned earlier.

2. You're right, odds don't increase each time you play. But your OVERALL chance of winning increases. i.e. say each time you play, you have a 10% chance of winning. If you play 10 times, do you have only a 10% chance of winning once? No, you have 10 chances to win at 10% each time. But the chance you will win at any given try is 10%.

Originally Posted by touque
I believe that's wrong. Your odds don't increase every time you play. But it is how people get suckered into playing the lottery. If one million people play, you have a one in a million chance to win. Even if you've played every week for 20 years, your odds don't increase... It's the same every time... if one million people play, you have a one in a million chance.

Neither of us are changing our minds, we're giving people a headache... I admire your conviction though.

3. Now my head hurts ... !

4. Originally Posted by touque
I believe that's wrong. Your odds don't increase every time you play. But it is how people get suckered into playing the lottery. If one million people play, you have a one in a million chance to win. Even if you've played every week for 20 years, your odds don't increase... It's the same every time... if one million people play, you have a one in a million chance.
God help me - you just described my life! I've been playing the same set of 6 numbers in a Canadian lottery, twice a week, since February 1983. That's over 2,000 times! And I know in my heart that my chance of winning this week is exactly the same as my chance of winning back in week one.
1 in 13,983,816.

5. Originally Posted by mom2

Now my head hurts ... !
Sorry! and Qboots ... So Sorry!

6. Originally Posted by Flash-57
The chances that all three would win the Roulette game were about 1 in 8. It was impressive that they all did win, but not particularly unusual. Next time, they may all lose.
In other words, you have no idea if they would win or lose

7. Originally Posted by Dogbat
The "god will take care of us" guy is too much and I look forward to their demise. It never ceases to amaze me when Christains think god is on their side and no one else.
The editing made a big difference here. They showed Brandon saying this in an interview just as Brandon was telling Nicole they should walk to save money. It sort of looked like he thought they didn't have to go all out (by taking faster taxis) because God would take care of them.

While Brandon's faith clearly is a major factor in Brandon's outlook on life, I'm sure he realizes that God isn't going to hand them the win. I'm sure he realizes that they actually need to put out an effort to be successful.

Speed is a good thing, but saving money is also a good thing. Walking looked like a bad decision, but that little bit of money may make a difference later.

8. Originally Posted by John
Unfortunately, the networks don't like people from reality sites on their shows. It's been advised by many previous contestants on several shows that you shouldn't mention any affiliation with a reality site during the interview process.

They're probably (rightly) worried about leakage.
Did ATCDave post here before he was on TAR? Wasn't he a moderator on another board?

9. I think a lot of people over-analyze the racers, detailing character flaws, personalities, etc. etc. But elimination--or placement in the standings--often comes down to the little things. Here's an analysis of the standings during Episode 1.

Shuttles to airport terminal

1. Colin/Christie
2. Marshall/Lance
3. Alison/Donny
Dennis/Erika
Kami/Karli
4. Brandon/Nicole
Bob/Joyce (made up time, was in last group leaving pier)
Chip/Kim
5. Jim/Marsha
6. Linda/Karen
7, Charla/Mirna (apparently walked to terminal)

Flights

1. Alison/Donny
Bob/Joyce
Brandon/Nicole
Charla/Mirna
Jim/Marsha
Kami/Karli
Linda/Karen
2. Colin/Christie
Chip/Kim
Dennis/Erika
Marshall/Lance

Of the early teams at the airport, only Alison/Donny and Kami/Karli went to the later plane, which turned out to be the earlier arriving. They got lucky. The other teams mostly headed to the earlier plane (although I didn't see where Jim/Marsha and Charla/Mirna went first). The later arriving teams lucked out that the later leaving plane was the early arriving.

The eliminated team came from Plane #2.

Ferries to Gorriti Island

1. Alison/Donny
Bob/Joyce
Kami/Karli
2. Charla/Mirna
Jim/Marsha
3. Linda/Karen
Brandon/Nicole
4. Colin/Christie
Chip/Kim
Dennis/Erika
Marshall/Lance

Of the first plane load, Alison/Donny, Bob/Joyce, & Kami/Karli were speedier than Charla/Mirna & Jim/Marsha. Linda/Karen & Brandon/Nicole made the third ferry because they chose to walk rather than take a taxi. According the the Insider videos, Linda/Karen lost money when they exchanged their dollars for pesos with a crooked shopkeeper, so they probably needed to save money. Brandon's choice to walk could have caused his team the race!

Ferries from Gorriti Island

1. Alison/Donny
Bob/Joyce
Linda/Karen
2. Charla/Mirna
Jim/Marsha
Kami/Karli
3. Brandon/Nicole
Colin/Christie
Chip/Kim
Dennis/Erika
Marshall/Lance

Although on the first ferry to the island, Kami/Karli failed to find the 8:00 ticket and lost 1/2 hour. Linda/Karen really lucked out in finding the last 8:00 ticket. Brandon's decision to walk to the ferry going to the island bumped Brandon/Nicole into the last group.

Starting the beef task

1. Alison/Donny
2. Charla/Mirna
3. Bob/Joyce
4. Linda/Karen
5. Kami/Karli
6. Jim/Marsha
7. Brandon/Nicole
Colin/Christie
Chip/Kim
Dennis/Erika
Marshall/Lance

Charla/Mirna really helped themselves by taking a taxi rather than the bus. This could have saved them. We didn't see the last group arrive, but they would have been together.

Finishing the beef task

1. Alison/Donny
2. Linda/Karen
3. Bob/Joyce
4. Charla/Mirna
5. Kami/Karli
6. Jim/Marsha
7. Colin/Christie
8. Brandon/Nicole
9. Dennis/Erika
10. Marshall/Lance
11. Chip/Kim

Charla/Mirna had a rough time. Good thing they had gained time by being the only team to take a taxi last time. Colin/Christie, Brandon/Nicole, & Dennis/Erika finished virtually at the same time but did drop off the beef in that order. It seems fair that Dennis/Erika got the last taxi since Dennis WAS the last of the group to drop the beef. But Brandon/Nicole did grab a taxi ahead of Colin/Christie. At this point, Dennis/Erika likely were doomed.

Marshall/Lance made their big move here by calling for a taxi rather than waiting with the others at the taxi stand. Chip/Kim LUCKED OUT!!! Chip looked to be well behind the others with the beef. (He really struggled in the Insider video.) But they learned from Marshall/Lance to call a taxi and gained a lot of time (which they wound up needing big tme).

At Detour Route Marker

1. Linda/Karen
2. Alison/Donny
3. Bob/Joyce
4. Kami/Karli (skipped box)
5. Chip/Kim (skipped box)
6. Marshall/Lance
7. Brandon/Nicole
8. Jim/Marsha
9. Charla/Mirna
10. Colin/Christie
11. Dennis/Erika

Linda/Karen gained the lead when Alison/Donny had trouble finding the box. Chip/Kim seemed to gain a big advantage by having their taxi wait for them. Charla/Mirna fell back in the standings apparently because of their difficulty in finding a taxi at the butcher's. Good thing they'd taken that taxi earlier.

While Phil described the ZIPS as the "fast" task, CHIPS turned out to be much quicker. The teams only had 20 chips and all four who played roulette won. Since they were playing 4-5 chips at a time, it only took five spins at the most. This couldn't have taken much time. This gave the CHIPS teams a big advantage.

Pit Stop

1. Chip/Kim (oops!)
2. Kami/Karli (oops!)
1. Alison/Donny
2. Marshall/Lance
3. Linda/Karen
4. Bob/Joyce
5. Charla/Mirna
6. Brandon/Nicole
7. Colin/Christie
8. Chip/Kim
9. Kami/Karli
10. Jim/Marsha
11. Dennis/Erika

Well, Chip/Kim & Kami/Karli broke rule #1: Read the instructions! But they were far enough ahead to make up for their mistake.

Calling for a taxi at the butcher shop, having their taxi wait at the hotel, and playing roulette gave Chip/Kim a big time advantage, which allowed them to go back for the Detour clue in time to avoid elimination. Calling for a taxi at the butcher shop and playing roulette gave Marshall/Lance second place. Playing roulette also helped Kami/Karli & Charla/Mirna. Jim/Marsha lost time by going into the casino rather than going straight to the roof and having a hard time finding a way to the roof. (The elevators are in the lobby of most hotels.) But they managed to get to the roof and finish the task before Dennis/Erika, thus avoiding elimination.

So why were Dennis and Erika eliminated?
1. They chose the wrong flight (bad luck) and wound up in the group that was at the back throughout the leg.
2. Dennis dropped off the beef after Brandon and Colin. This put them behind these other two in line at the taxi stand. (Dennis was a nce guy for not grabbing a taxi ahead of Colin/Christie, but he technically should have been behind them in line.
3. They failed to seek alternate transportation as Marshall/Lance and Chip/Kim did by calling taxis.

So there it is. Elimination all came down to three little things.

10. Thanks for posting that NC, I was kind of confused as to how and why some teams made and or lost time.

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