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Thread: 7/6 Show Discussion **Spoilers**

  1. #371
    FORT Fogey
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flash-57
    No. They have a 13% chance of winning for each spin, but they get to spin four times. So, overall, they do have about a 50-50 chance of winning.

    Think of a simpler example. If you flip a coin and it comes ups heads, you win. Plus, I let you flip the coin 100 times and you win if you flip heads in any of the tries. Are you thinking that you still have a 50-50 chance of winning?
    Let's put it this way. You flipped a coin and got heads 49 out of 50 times. What would be your chances of flipping another heads? Automatically, one would think the odds would be astronomically against you. But they are not. When you flip that coin, there is a 50/50 chance you will get heads. Doesn't matter what came before.
    So, if you put 5 tokens on the 37, your odds are about 13%. Next time, they'll be 13% too. And same with the next two times.
    Never took stats... was a theatre major...

    Poppy I'm with you, , just as soon as they allow Canadians to try out.

  2. #372
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    Quote Originally Posted by touque
    Let's put it this way. You flipped a coin and got heads 49 out of 50 times. What would be your chances of flipping another heads? Automatically, one would think the odds would be astronomically against you. But they are not. When you flip that coin, there is a 50/50 chance you will get heads. Doesn't matter what came before.
    So, if you put 5 tokens on the 37, your odds are about 13%. Next time, they'll be 13% too. And same with the next two times.
    Never took stats... was a theatre major...
    I can't believe there's so much talk about odds and probability.
    But, yeah, you're absolutely right touque. Great way of explaining it! I guess the key thing to remember is that it doesn't matter what came before.

  3. #373
    The race is back! John's Avatar
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    Unfortunately, the networks don't like people from reality sites on their shows. It's been advised by many previous contestants on several shows that you shouldn't mention any affiliation with a reality site during the interview process.

    They're probably (rightly) worried about leakage.

  4. #374
    Fool... but no pity. Krom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lotuslander
    Just to clarify, I think Charla and Mirna's offer of working together with team Dad and Daughter, had nothing to do with Charla's previous statement of " people wanting to help her". Height had nothing to do with searching the trees for tags, it was just a friendly gesture that was re-buffed by Daughter. Another thing, I can't beleive Donny has never heard of a ferry, even if he lives in a land locked city, hasn't he seen The Lord of The Rings and the Buckleberry ferry moment when the Dark Riders are chasing the Hobbits?
    I keep seeing this default assumption that Daughter was a jerk and that "the offer" would have been to their advantage. Well it wasn't. The offer came at a time when they thought they might be searching for the last card to an earlier ferry (they didnt know they were all gone I think), and the thought process might have been that there was no advantage to it. And to be honest and non-PC about it? Daughter may have noticed that Charla is a bit... slow and had no real thought process about how any alliance only had to be temporary.

    "You don't rehearse Mr. T, you just turn him loose."
    -----Sylvester Stallone, on Mr. T-----

  5. #375
    FORT Fanatic cajro62's Avatar
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    When charla and mirna suggested to Jim and Marsha- This is what I noticed- As Charla was fiddling with her back pack Marsha says to them "we're going this way" neither Charla or Mirna were paying attention-
    Carey

  6. #376
    FORT Fogey
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    Kami/Karli remind me so much of Kelly Goldsmith of Survivor fame that it's scary.
    Maybe that's why I like them! Kelly Goldsmith is one of my all time favorite survivors. She's not as dumb as them though, I doubt she would've walked by the clue like they did.

    Anyway, it was very exciting! I think I'd forgotten how much I love this show.

    I love how all my pre show favs finished in the last qualifying positions. And in order of preferance.

    Brandon may be an idiot(another idiot Brandon on a reality show, man they make Brandons look bad) but he does have nice arms.

    Ugh I can't believe Alison gets the trip to Hawaii!! That's what I want!! Grrrr! I swear...if they win!!!!!!! ARGH! Wow she's gonna be an uber biotch next episode. I was wondering when she'd rear her extremely ugly head.

    (I tried posting that last night but the site started acting up, so I decided I'd try my luck the next time I'm online. I couldn't let my post go to waste. )

  7. #377
    Anarchist AJane's Avatar
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    All this math stuff is giving me a headache all I can say is, I woulda taken the zips, just because it looked like really cool fun and there was a cute pool boy to rescue you at the end

    I'm not that crazy about any of the male/female teams this year at all. The only ones that didn't annoy me in some way were Chip and Kim, and I don't hold out a lot of hope for them...just a feeling.

    Love Charla & Mirna, I'm definitely rooting for them. The bowling moms are pretty cool, too.
    All my life, I have felt destiny tugging at my sleeve.~ Thursday Next
    I don't want to "go with the flow". The flow just washes you down the drain. I want to fight the flow.- Henry Rollins
    All this spiritual talk is great and everything...but at the end of the day, there's nothing like a pair of skinny jeans. - Jillian Michaels

  8. #378
    Back to the kitty lalol's Avatar
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    I'm not sure if this was mentioned but I loved the way the producers duped the teams by making them believe that the flight with less seats arriving earlier Really tested their intelligence

  9. #379
    My Prediction: Pain Jebber78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple
    Sorry, I lied, I could take more thinking. Just can't avoid those statistics and probabilities. I know I'm a geek.

    The probability that you win in 4 spins = 1 minus the probability you don't win in 4 spins.
    So the prob. you don't win in 4 spins = (32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37) because the prob. you don't win in each spin is 32/37.
    Therefore the probability you win in 4 spins = 1 minus [(32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37)]

    Hope that makes sense.
    You're almost there kiddo. While it is true that the wheel has 36 numbers, they very differently all over the globe as to whether or not they have just one "0" or a "0" and a "00" .. while most wheels outside of the U.S. only have a single zero, it was clear that the wheel they were at had both. So you would have to change your calculation so that on each individual spin their odds of not winning are 32/38 .. worsening their odds.

    Regardless.. I think chosing the chips was the way to go. The zips seemed very slow, both in practice and in time waiting for others to finish. If you were close to teams in front of you, chips was a much better play. You might have spent time when you could have been playing the wheel waiting for an opposing team to cross the zip lines.. as I recall their were only 2 lines. The odds of hitting the number are not that bad, and the time saved was huge. Look how Lance and Marshall leapfrogged like 4 teams by winning at roulette. I believe it also saved Charla/Mirna from elimination.

  10. #380
    LA Model, Part-time Actor
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    Quote Originally Posted by lalol
    I'm not sure if this was mentioned but I loved the way the producers duped the teams by making them believe that the flight with less seats arriving earlier Really tested their intelligence
    Yeah but they should have really payed attention. I remember a team wanting to return their tickets once the twins told them about the earlier flight. Another plus this season (for me) are the possible (not confirmed) locations. It's a possible spoiler so I'm not going to mention.

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