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Thread: 7/6 Show Discussion **Spoilers**

  1. #361
    Jay
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    You're a mean one Jay's Avatar
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    The detour was "Zips or Chips". I misunderstood and heard "Zits or Chips". Ewwww.

  2. #362
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    I think a team consisting of two physically fit FORT members would be unbeatable. Who else has analyzed each teams movements to the slightest detail? Who else would know that the best bet for booking travel is to go to a 4 star hotel and sweet-talk the concierge?

    Another thing I noticed is that there were teams standing next to a large hotel wondering how they were going to find a taxi. Ummmm ... how about going to the front entrance of the hotel? I think it's fairly universal that there's a taxi stand at the front of every large hotel. It's a place to start at the very least.

  3. #363
    FORT Regular Flash-57's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by touque
    Sorry, that's illogical. They only had a 5/37 chance of winning EACH time the wheel was spun. The odds stay the same for every spin because they only have 5 chips for each new spin. The odds don't change because they get to do it 4 times. So the odds were only about 13%.
    No. They have a 13% chance of winning for each spin, but they get to spin four times. So, overall, they do have about a 50-50 chance of winning.

    Think of a simpler example. If you flip a coin and it comes ups heads, you win. Plus, I let you flip the coin 100 times and you win if you flip heads in any of the tries. Are you thinking that you still have a 50-50 chance of winning?
    -- Flash

  4. #364
    No fear, Poppy's here Poptarticus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PJO1966
    I think a team consisting of two physically fit FORT members would be unbeatable. Who else has analyzed each teams movements to the slightest detail? Who else would know that the best bet for booking travel is to go to a 4 star hotel and sweet-talk the concierge?

    Another thing I noticed is that there were teams standing next to a large hotel wondering how they were going to find a taxi. Ummmm ... how about going to the front entrance of the hotel? I think it's fairly universal that there's a taxi stand at the front of every large hotel. It's a place to start at the very least.
    Agreed, but you heard the idea here first!

    Your thoughts are great and had also crossed my mind. Actually what I found more inane, was all the teams waiting on Taxis in the meat market town meanwhile walking past people sitting in front of cars and on top of cars and exiting cars. A quick flash of the greenbacks for a short ride and some TV time, would have been much faster than waiting in line on a taxi.

    Anyone who has been to a country that is lower on the exchange rate scale, where dollars are valued would know this. Heck, I have friends that drive to Canada when the dollar is strong just to get good deals on items, and that is just across the border, not in some Spanish speaking town where the dollar is probably enough of an advantage to toss even a fiver round.

    As I always say when stuck in a tricky situation (old TV quote) "Think McGuyver Think...."!

    If only I had a piece of chewing gum, and a yard of twine, I could have built my own taxi in the time it took those teams to wait in line.

    At some point last night each of the teams could have used some of their seed money to buy a clue in my opinion.


  5. #365
    Go Bruins! Qboots's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flash-57
    No. They have a 13% chance of winning for each spin, but they get to spin four times. So, overall, they do have about a 50-50 chance of winning.
    Faulty logic. Each spin is a separate event. People can sit in casinos for hours and never win. Never mind only having 4 tries.


    Quote Originally Posted by Flash-57
    Think of a simpler example. If you flip a coin and it comes ups heads, you win. Plus, I let you flip the coin 100 times and you win if you flip heads in any of the tries. Are you thinking that you still have a 50-50 chance of winning?
    But they didn't have 100 tries. They had 4. You can easily flip a coin 4 times and get the same result each time. And a coin only has 2 possible outcomes. What if your coin had 37 sides? And you could only flip it 4 times?

    Do we have any mathmeticians in the house?
    "I'm telling you - it's a madhouse out there. I feel like Charlton Heston waking up in the field and seeing the chimp on top of the pony." ~ Dennis Miller

  6. #366
    FORT Fogey
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    I've taken a whole bunch of courses involving statistics like this in my last two years of University... but it's summer vacation right now... so I can't help you

  7. #367
    Cy Young 2010 Mariner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dfleming2
    I've taken a whole bunch of courses involving statistics like this in my last two years of University... but it's summer vacation right now... so I can't help you
    I know Touque is right. I can't explain the reason right now and I'm not on summer vacation. My brain is just fried.

  8. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by Qboots
    Faulty logic. Each spin is a separate event. People can sit in casinos for hours and never win. Never mind only having 4 tries.



    But they didn't have 100 tries. They had 4. You can easily flip a coin 4 times and get the same result each time. And a coin only has 2 possible outcomes. What if your coin had 37 sides? And you could only flip it 4 times?

    Do we have any mathmeticians in the house?
    Will be going into my 3rd year of Stats/math in the fall.
    You're right, each spin is a separate event...in my stats classes we called them independent events. It doesn't matter what happens on the spin before. Anyways, can't think anymore, or else I'll overanalyze it.
    Last edited by pineapple; 07-07-2004 at 07:01 PM.

  9. #369
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    Sorry, I lied, I could take more thinking. Just can't avoid those statistics and probabilities. I know I'm a geek.

    The probability that you win in 4 spins = 1 minus the probability you don't win in 4 spins.
    So the prob. you don't win in 4 spins = (32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37) because the prob. you don't win in each spin is 32/37.
    Therefore the probability you win in 4 spins = 1 minus [(32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37)*(32/37)]

    Hope that makes sense.

  10. #370
    Nevermind Lotuslander's Avatar
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    Just to clarify, I think Charla and Mirna's offer of working together with team Dad and Daughter, had nothing to do with Charla's previous statement of " people wanting to help her". Height had nothing to do with searching the trees for tags, it was just a friendly gesture that was re-buffed by Daughter. Another thing, I can't beleive Donny has never heard of a ferry, even if he lives in a land locked city, hasn't he seen The Lord of The Rings and the Buckleberry ferry moment when the Dark Riders are chasing the Hobbits?

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