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Thread: Episode 11 ~ Pre-Show Speculations

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    Palau Islands Tsutroi's Avatar
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    Episode 11 ~ Pre-Show Speculations

    All right, can't believe we are already at the last leg prior to the Grand Finale. Is it surprising to see these Final 4 teams? Well, I think not if you look at the polls from Pre-Show up to this week, the Goats, the Clowns and the Married couple have the 3 highest 'confidence' votes when it comes to chance of winning. So virtually, the Public expects these 3 to make it far and the Public is right. The 3 highest possible winning teams make it to the Top 4. The Dark Horse is Team JoKe and they might just prove everyone wrong and pull off a Flo and -- Flo* (putting on drag and act like a guy).

    Now who is going to make it to that illusive Final 3 and drive it home!? Arguably, we have 4 of the most competitive TAR teams ever this time around, the detours and roadblocks are much more difficult and the show has grown and learnt from the past to keep racers bunching close together so it isn't over until it's over.

    Right now, there just seems to have no consensus whatsoever. Any of the 4 teams could be out - we have heard of all male Finale but as well as someone who said according to the opening billboards, the Goats will be outed. Someone who analyzed the TV and Internet Previews of CBS said it hints towards a Clown elimination whereas people who believe in the Facetime theory claim that Reichen/Chip are ready to pack and go home. So who is it going to be? In my view, the next leg is going to be more exciting than the Finale because as long as you make it to the top 3, it matters less where you finish, at least you have completed the Race. So here is a thread dedicated to a factual speculation for Episode 11:

    City of Destiny: Brisbane, Australia [confirmed at 99.9% of accuracy]

    Date of Travel: Using available data, we have determined that the teams arrived in Seoul, South Korea on the Friday morning of February 7th, 2003. Therefore, 12 hours later, teams would be leaving the pit stop in Seoul at the early morning of the Saturday, February 8th, 2003.

    Flight Options: Using the Interactive Timetable provided by Lufthansa which allows you to view flights from any airlines, we use February 2004 as a mirror to speculate what were the best flights in February 2003. Using the 2004 timetable should be quite accurate because at this time, the airlines haven't updated their Winter Schedule yet, they normally don't do it until September. Therefore anything 330 days out simply mirrors what happened last year. We can see that flights don't leave until the morning that day between 8AM to 12PM and there is no direct flight from Seoul (ICN) to Brisbane (BNE). So clearly, all teams will bunch up again in the airport unless something totally terrible happened which is very, very unlikely considering teams probably checked-in around noon so they had a good 9~10 hours to retrieved the clue and get to the airport. The best flight option on a Saturday would be to connect via Singapore which will get into Brisbane at 6:05 AM local time. The exact routing would be: Seoul->Singapore on Korean Air Flight 641 leaving Seoul at 12:25 PM, arriving Singapore at 5:45 PM. Then departing Singapore at 8:45 PM on Emirates Flight 430 getting into Brisbane at 6:05 AM. There are other flight options and some actually left Seoul earlier than the best option mentionning above. I think teams would have to be very smart about finding the best one and also keeping their information secret so that the others won't just copy and follow. For example, if a team just gets in to the airport and asked for the earliest flight out to Brisbane, an airline agent may just sell them a connection via Tokyo Narita which leaves Seoul at 11:30 AM but gets into Brisbane at 7:50AM, almost 2 hours behind the best option. Or, via Osaka's Kansai airport and get in around 7AM. Even if teams manage to get into Singapore, the best option, Emirates is not a well known airline to most people and some agents might go for the more obvious connection on Qantas (Australian) but that would be about half an hour behind Emirates. I have a feeling that teams won't be all travelling on the same flights this time around because it is so much harder to obtain the flight information from the leading teams as they did in Kota Kinabalu. First of all, Inchon airport is a big hub with many, many different airlines whereas Kota Kinabalu is a small local airport with only one major player, Malaysian Airlines. In Seoul, the airport is big and with so many different airlines, if teams don't get into the airport together, chances that they all end up on the same flight is quite slim. Teams who can analyze information best would have an advantage here provided there is no bunching in Brisbane.

    So here is the fact sheet. Will continue with more analysis.
    Last edited by Tsutroi; 08-03-2003 at 12:01 AM.
    Phil

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    Holy crap you've certainly done your homework.

    Unfortunately I feel that no matter how hard we analyze, we won't come up with a better answer about how things will end up than with what we started with.

    That said, I can't WAIT to read what else you've dug up ... anything to satiate my Amazing Race appetite until the next episode. Thanks for helping me get through the week.

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    Amazing Race Lover miss_ambiguous's Avatar
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    HOLY CRAP...

    you have it all analyzed from the first seconds to the last. that would have been crazy! you are definitely beyond obsessed! wow... i'm still kinda in awe here...

    how do you think so much about the show? i'm just not that kind of person. i just watch the previews and wait impatiently for the next week. i'm no good at analyzing and predicting stuff though, but obviously you are... and for all that hard work (i think ) really you deserve it...
    Cheering for Brian/Greg, Lynn/Alex

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    phil, you have amazed all of us again,

    holy crap is all I can say.
    But as mentioned, despite all this analysing, things could always turn out a different way. If I am not wrong, the weather in seoul during time of filming was winter. This could possibly lead to delays in some ways or another, but despite all this, I appluade your efforts

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    Renaissance Man bigbadmatt's Avatar
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    Excellent detective work, Tsutroi. If this is the case, I would like to see all four teams take different flight routes to Brisbane. It's definitely more exciting if they have more options rather than to take the same flight to Australia.

  6. #6
    FORT Fogey
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbadmatt
    Excellent detective work, Tsutroi. If this is the case, I would like to see all four teams take different flight routes to Brisbane. It's definitely more exciting if they have more options rather than to take the same flight to Australia.
    Four Amazing Yellow Lines would be quite kewl.

  7. #7
    FORT Fogey
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tsutroi
    Now who is going to make it to that illusive Final 3 and drive it home!? Arguably, we have 4 of the most competitive TAR teams ever this time around, the detours and roadblocks are much more difficult and the show has grown and learnt from the past to keep racers bunching close together so it isn't over until it's over.

    Right now, there just seems to have no consensus whatsoever. Any of the 4 teams could be out...

    So here is the fact sheet. Will continue with more analysis.
    Hey! Just thought of a way for CBS to spice up future instalments of TAR (and there will be future instalments because I forbid them to cancel it!). They should add a colour commentator, just like a regular sports event, and Tsutroi should fill that position! Phil Keoghan, of course, would be the play-by-play guy.

    ...according to the opening billboards, the Goats will be outed.
    Freudian slip?

  8. #8
    Renaissance Man bigbadmatt's Avatar
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    Hmmm... I like the idea of Phil and Phil doing a play by play

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    Kudos to you, Tsuroi for such a wonderful analysis.

  10. #10
    Palau Islands Tsutroi's Avatar
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    Wow

    Wow, the responses are overwhelming. Honestly, the fact sheet you saw, it was very simple. It might look elaborate and complicate but the hard part was only writing them down and present the info so that readers can understand otherwise, the research portion took no more than 30 minutes. The Brisbane information was readily available, I wasn't the one who figured it out - someone else living there confirmed it and I merely double-checked the info and confirmed it. The date of travel is again based on the lead we got that they got into Kota Kinabalu on February 4th, 2003 so the rest is just a matter of counting. Flight options, I am very, very familiar with searching flight options. This year is slow for me but in the past, I was on the road all the times, flying all kinds of airlines. I have been to almost every place TAR4 has been to except Malaysia. So I knew exactly which tool to use and how to assess the information. Frankly, I think I am more experienced than any given travel agent or airline ticketing agent on this matter. So it was extremly easy and not time consuming at all when you know exactly what to do and what to look for.

    As for commenting along Phil to make a Phil-Phil duo in TAR5, hmm...I am praying that it will be an All-Star from the past top 3 finishers and in case it is so and they bring Reichen/Chip back, I don't think I can remain unbiased... It would be hard, so I guess, I have to pass....
    Phil

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